Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Corriere della Sera, 22–24 November 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 31.4% | 29.6–33.3% | 29.0–33.9% | 28.6–34.4% | 27.7–35.3% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 17.5% | 16.0–19.1% | 15.6–19.6% | 15.3–20.0% | 14.6–20.8% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 17.2% | 15.7–18.8% | 15.3–19.3% | 15.0–19.7% | 14.3–20.5% |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.3–8.5% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.8–9.1% | 5.4–9.7% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 6.8% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.3% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.1% |
| Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 6.8% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.3% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.1% |
| Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.5–5.1% | 3.3–5.4% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% |
| Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.4% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.1–2.7% | 0.9–3.1% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.4% |
| Italia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 28 | 24–29 | 24–29 | 24–29 | 23–29 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 14 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 | 12–18 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 14 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 10% | 99.0% | |
| 25 | 12% | 89% | |
| 26 | 14% | 77% | |
| 27 | 6% | 63% | |
| 28 | 32% | 57% | Median |
| 29 | 25% | 26% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 8% | 96% | |
| 14 | 59% | 88% | Median |
| 15 | 14% | 29% | |
| 16 | 11% | 15% | |
| 17 | 4% | 5% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 29% | 99.2% | |
| 13 | 16% | 70% | |
| 14 | 40% | 54% | Median |
| 15 | 12% | 14% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 16% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 6 | 39% | 84% | Median |
| 7 | 39% | 45% | |
| 8 | 6% | 6% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 36% | 97% | |
| 6 | 53% | 60% | Median |
| 7 | 7% | 8% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 40% | 98% | |
| 6 | 45% | 58% | Median |
| 7 | 12% | 13% | |
| 8 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 39% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 61% | |
| 2 | 0% | 61% | |
| 3 | 4% | 61% | |
| 4 | 53% | 57% | Median |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Italia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 6 | 0% | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
Lega Nord (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 16% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 6 | 39% | 84% | Median |
| 7 | 39% | 45% | |
| 8 | 6% | 6% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Corriere della Sera
- Fieldwork period: 22–24 November 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.30%