Opinion Poll by Tecnè for Agenzia Dire, 15–16 December 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) |
3.7% |
30.8% |
29.0–32.7% |
28.5–33.3% |
28.0–33.7% |
27.1–34.7% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) |
21.2% |
17.5% |
16.0–19.1% |
15.6–19.6% |
15.3–20.0% |
14.6–20.8% |
Partito Democratico (S&D) |
40.8% |
15.7% |
14.3–17.3% |
13.9–17.7% |
13.6–18.1% |
12.9–18.9% |
Lega Nord (ID) |
6.2% |
8.8% |
7.7–10.1% |
7.4–10.4% |
7.2–10.7% |
6.7–11.4% |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) |
0.0% |
7.5% |
6.5–8.7% |
6.2–9.0% |
6.0–9.3% |
5.6–9.9% |
Forza Italia (EPP) |
16.8% |
7.4% |
6.4–8.6% |
6.2–8.9% |
5.9–9.2% |
5.5–9.8% |
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
3.4% |
2.8–4.3% |
2.6–4.5% |
2.4–4.7% |
2.2–5.2% |
Più Europa (RE) |
0.0% |
2.6% |
2.1–3.4% |
1.9–3.6% |
1.8–3.8% |
1.6–4.2% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) |
0.0% |
1.9% |
1.4–2.6% |
1.3–2.8% |
1.2–3.0% |
1.0–3.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
5% |
98.5% |
|
24 |
20% |
93% |
|
25 |
29% |
73% |
Median |
26 |
26% |
44% |
|
27 |
13% |
19% |
|
28 |
5% |
6% |
|
29 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
12 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
13 |
12% |
98% |
|
14 |
42% |
86% |
Median |
15 |
26% |
43% |
|
16 |
14% |
17% |
|
17 |
2% |
3% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
11 |
7% |
99.6% |
|
12 |
26% |
92% |
|
13 |
42% |
66% |
Median |
14 |
20% |
25% |
|
15 |
4% |
5% |
|
16 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.4% |
100% |
Last Result |
6 |
14% |
99.6% |
|
7 |
52% |
86% |
Median |
8 |
29% |
34% |
|
9 |
5% |
5% |
|
10 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Azione–Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
5 |
11% |
99.7% |
|
6 |
57% |
88% |
Median |
7 |
29% |
32% |
|
8 |
3% |
3% |
|
9 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
4 |
14% |
99.5% |
|
5 |
60% |
86% |
Median |
6 |
23% |
26% |
|
7 |
3% |
3% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
84% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
16% |
|
2 |
0% |
16% |
|
3 |
10% |
16% |
|
4 |
5% |
5% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.1% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
3 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
4 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Lega Nord (ID) |
5 |
7 |
0% |
6–8 |
6–8 |
6–9 |
6–9 |
Lega Nord (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.4% |
100% |
Last Result |
6 |
14% |
99.6% |
|
7 |
52% |
86% |
Median |
8 |
29% |
34% |
|
9 |
5% |
5% |
|
10 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Tecnè
- Commissioner(s): Agenzia Dire
- Fieldwork period: 15–16 December 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.08%