Opinion Poll by Demos & Pi for La Repubblica, 26–27 April 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 3.7% 29.3% 27.5–31.2% 27.0–31.7% 26.6–32.2% 25.7–33.1%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 40.8% 20.1% 18.5–21.7% 18.1–22.2% 17.7–22.6% 17.0–23.5%
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) 21.2% 15.6% 14.2–17.1% 13.8–17.6% 13.5–18.0% 12.8–18.7%
Lega Nord (ID) 6.2% 8.2% 7.2–9.5% 6.9–9.8% 6.7–10.1% 6.2–10.7%
Forza Italia (EPP) 16.8% 7.6% 6.7–8.8% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.7–10.1%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.6–3.5% 1.4–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 24 23–26 22–27 22–27 21–28
Partito Democratico (S&D) 31 17 15–19 15–19 14–19 14–20
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) 17 13 12–14 11–15 11–15 11–16
Lega Nord (ID) 5 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Forza Italia (EPP) 13 5 5–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
Azione (RE) 0 4 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0–3 0–4 0–4
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–3

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.2% 99.9%  
22 6% 98.7%  
23 21% 93%  
24 26% 72% Median
25 26% 46%  
26 15% 20%  
27 4% 5%  
28 1.3% 1.4%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 3% 99.9%  
15 22% 97%  
16 22% 75%  
17 23% 53% Median
18 19% 30%  
19 9% 11%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100%  
11 5% 99.6%  
12 26% 95%  
13 34% 69% Median
14 27% 35%  
15 7% 8%  
16 0.7% 0.8%  
17 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
18 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100% Last Result
6 30% 97%  
7 42% 67% Median
8 23% 26%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 9% 99.7%  
5 50% 90% Median
6 31% 40%  
7 9% 9%  
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100% Last Result
1 0% 64%  
2 0% 64%  
3 13% 64%  
4 47% 51% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 9%  
2 0% 9%  
3 6% 9%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 1.0% 2%  
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0% 0.5%  
3 0.4% 0.5%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (ID) 5 7 0% 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9

Lega Nord (ID)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100% Last Result
6 30% 97%  
7 42% 67% Median
8 23% 26%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations