Opinion Poll by Lab2101 for Affari Italiani, 22–25 May 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 29.4% | 27.6–31.3% | 27.1–31.8% | 26.7–32.3% | 25.8–33.2% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 19.7% | 18.2–21.4% | 17.7–21.9% | 17.3–22.3% | 16.6–23.1% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 16.4% | 15.0–18.0% | 14.6–18.4% | 14.2–18.8% | 13.6–19.6% |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 9.3% | 8.2–10.6% | 7.9–10.9% | 7.7–11.3% | 7.2–11.9% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 6.7% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.3–8.4% | 4.9–9.0% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.6–7.2% |
| Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.4–4.7% | 2.2–5.2% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.4% | 1.9–3.6% | 1.8–3.8% | 1.6–4.2% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.7–3.4% | 1.6–3.6% | 1.4–3.9% |
| Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.8% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 25 | 24–27 | 23–28 | 23–28 | 22–29 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 18 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 15–20 | 14–20 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 14 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 | 12–17 |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–10 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 3–7 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 7% | 99.1% | |
| 24 | 15% | 92% | |
| 25 | 37% | 77% | Median |
| 26 | 17% | 40% | |
| 27 | 13% | 22% | |
| 28 | 8% | 9% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 5% | 98.7% | |
| 16 | 23% | 94% | |
| 17 | 19% | 71% | |
| 18 | 34% | 52% | Median |
| 19 | 12% | 18% | |
| 20 | 6% | 6% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 12 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 27% | 96% | |
| 14 | 36% | 69% | Median |
| 15 | 21% | 34% | |
| 16 | 9% | 12% | |
| 17 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 24% | 98% | |
| 8 | 32% | 73% | Median |
| 9 | 37% | 42% | |
| 10 | 4% | 5% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 23% | 98% | |
| 5 | 58% | 75% | Median |
| 6 | 9% | 17% | |
| 7 | 8% | 8% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 93% | |
| 2 | 0% | 93% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 93% | |
| 4 | 41% | 92% | |
| 5 | 47% | 51% | Median |
| 6 | 3% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 84% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 16% | |
| 2 | 0% | 16% | |
| 3 | 4% | 16% | |
| 4 | 12% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.3% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.3% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–10 |
Lega Nord (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 24% | 98% | |
| 8 | 32% | 73% | Median |
| 9 | 37% | 42% | |
| 10 | 4% | 5% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Lab2101
- Commissioner(s): Affari Italiani
- Fieldwork period: 22–25 May 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.16%