Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 20–23 June 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 3.7% 29.0% 28.1–29.9% 27.9–30.1% 27.7–30.4% 27.3–30.8%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 40.8% 19.6% 18.8–20.4% 18.6–20.6% 18.4–20.8% 18.1–21.2%
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) 21.2% 16.1% 15.4–16.8% 15.2–17.0% 15.0–17.2% 14.7–17.6%
Lega Nord (ID) 6.2% 9.2% 8.7–9.8% 8.5–10.0% 8.4–10.1% 8.1–10.4%
Forza Italia (EPP) 16.8% 8.0% 7.5–8.6% 7.3–8.7% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.1%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.5% 3.2–3.9% 3.1–4.0% 3.0–4.1% 2.8–4.3%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.6% 2.3–2.9% 2.2–3.0% 2.1–3.1% 2.0–3.3%
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.6% 2.3–2.9% 2.2–3.0% 2.1–3.1% 2.0–3.3%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 2.5% 2.2–2.8% 2.1–2.9% 2.1–3.0% 2.0–3.2%
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) 0.0% 2.5% 2.2–2.8% 2.1–2.9% 2.1–3.0% 2.0–3.2%
Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8%
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 27 26–28 26–28 26–29 25–29
Partito Democratico (S&D) 31 18 18–19 17–19 17–19 17–19
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) 17 15 14–15 14–16 14–16 14–16
Lega Nord (ID) 5 8 8–9 8–9 8–9 8–10
Forza Italia (EPP) 13 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–7
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 1.5% 100%  
26 17% 98%  
27 57% 82% Median
28 21% 24%  
29 3% 3%  
30 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 6% 99.8%  
18 75% 93% Median
19 18% 19%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 12% 99.7%  
15 80% 87% Median
16 7% 7%  
17 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
18 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 0.4% 100%  
8 82% 99.6% Median
9 17% 18%  
10 0.8% 0.8%  
11 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 39% 99.6%  
7 60% 60% Median
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0.6% 2%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (ID) 5 8 0% 8–9 8–9 8–9 8–10

Lega Nord (ID)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 0.4% 100%  
8 82% 99.6% Median
9 17% 18%  
10 0.8% 0.8%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations