Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 2 October 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals

Party	Last Result	Poll Result	80% Confidence Interval	90% Confidence Interval	95% Confidence Interval	99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)	3.7%	29.1%	27.4–30.8%	27.0–31.3%	26.6–31.7%	25.8–32.6%
Partito Democratico (S&D)	40.8%	19.5%	18.1–21.0%	17.7–21.5%	17.3–21.8%	16.7–22.6%
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)	21.2%	16.7%	15.3–18.1%	15.0–18.5%	14.7–18.9%	14.1–19.6%
Lega Nord (ID)	6.2%	9.8%	8.8–11.0%	8.5–11.4%	8.3–11.7%	7.8–12.3%
Forza Italia (EPP)	16.8%	6.5%	5.7–7.5%	5.4–7.8%	5.2–8.0%	4.9–8.6%
Azione (RE)	0.0%	3.9%	3.3–4.7%	3.1–5.0%	3.0–5.2%	2.7–5.6%
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA)	0.0%	3.4%	2.8–4.2%	2.7–4.4%	2.5–4.6%	2.3–5.0%
Più Europa (RE)	0.0%	2.6%	2.1–3.3%	1.9–3.5%	1.8–3.7%	1.6–4.0%
Italia Viva (RE)	0.0%	2.4%	1.9–3.1%	1.8–3.3%	1.7–3.5%	1.5–3.8%
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)	0.0%	1.8%	1.4–2.4%	1.3–2.6%	1.2–2.8%	1.0–3.1%
Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL)	0.0%	1.5%	1.1–2.1%	1.0–2.2%	0.9–2.4%	0.8–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Confidence Intervals

Party	Last Result	Median	80% Confidence Interval	90% Confidence Interval	95% Confidence Interval	99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)	0	25	24–27	24–27	24–28	23–29
Partito Democratico (S&D)	31	17	16–19	16–19	15–19	15–20
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)	17	15	14–16	14–16	13–17	13–17
Lega Nord (ID)	5	9	8–9	8–10	7–10	7–11
Forza Italia (EPP)	13	5	4–6	4–6	4–6	3–6
Azione (RE)	0	4	0–4	0–4	0–5	0–5
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA)	0	0	0–4	0–4	0–4	0–4
Più Europa (RE)	0	0	0	0	0	0
Italia Viva (RE)	0	0	0	0	0	0
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)	0	0	0	0	0	0
Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL)	0	0	0	0	0	0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	0%	100%	Last Result
1	0%	100%
2	0%	100%
3	0%	100%
4	0%	100%
5	0%	100%
6	0%	100%
7	0%	100%
8	0%	100%
9	0%	100%
10	0%	100%
11	0%	100%
12	0%	100%
13	0%	100%
14	0%	100%
15	0%	100%
16	0%	100%
17	0%	100%
18	0%	100%
19	0%	100%
20	0%	100%
21	0%	100%
22	0.3%	100%
23	1.3%	99.7%
24	36%	98%
25	13%	62%	Median
26	37%	49%
27	8%	12%
28	3%	4%
29	1.1%	1.3%
30	0.1%	0.2%
31	0%	0%

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
14	0.4%	100%
15	4%	99.6%
16	37%	96%
17	16%	59%	Median
18	8%	43%
19	33%	35%
20	2%	2%
21	0.1%	0.1%
22	0%	0%
23	0%	0%
24	0%	0%
25	0%	0%
26	0%	0%
27	0%	0%
28	0%	0%
29	0%	0%
30	0%	0%
31	0%	0%	Last Result

Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
12	0.4%	100%
13	4%	99.6%
14	13%	96%
15	71%	83%	Median
16	8%	12%
17	4%	4%	Last Result
18	0.4%	0.5%
19	0%	0%

Lega Nord (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
5	0%	100%	Last Result
6	0%	100%
7	3%	100%
8	45%	97%
9	43%	52%	Median
10	8%	9%
11	0.7%	0.8%
12	0.1%	0.1%
13	0%	0%

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
3	1.4%	100%
4	42%	98.6%
5	20%	56%	Median
6	36%	37%
7	0.2%	0.3%
8	0%	0%
9	0%	0%
10	0%	0%
11	0%	0%
12	0%	0%
13	0%	0%	Last Result

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	46%	100%	Last Result
1	0%	54%
2	0%	54%
3	0.6%	54%
4	51%	54%	Median
5	3%	3%
6	0%	0%

Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	57%	100%	Last Result, Median
1	0%	43%
2	0%	43%
3	2%	43%
4	41%	41%
5	0.1%	0.1%
6	0%	0%

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	99.9%	100%	Last Result, Median
1	0%	0.1%
2	0%	0.1%
3	0%	0.1%
4	0.1%	0.1%
5	0%	0%

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	99.9%	100%	Last Result, Median
1	0%	0.1%
2	0%	0.1%
3	0%	0.1%
4	0.1%	0.1%
5	0%	0%

Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	100%	100%	Last Result, Median

Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	100%	100%	Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Confidence Intervals

Coalition	Last Result	Median	Majority?	80% Confidence Interval	90% Confidence Interval	95% Confidence Interval	99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (ID)	5	9	0%	8–9	8–10	7–10	7–11

Lega Nord (ID)

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
5	0%	100%	Last Result
6	0%	100%
7	3%	100%
8	45%	97%
9	43%	52%	Median
10	8%	9%
11	0.7%	0.8%
12	0.1%	0.1%
13	0%	0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

• Polling firm: SWG
• Commissioner(s): La7
• Fieldwork period: 2 October 2023

Calculations

• Sample size: 1200
• Simulations done: 1,048,576
• Error estimate: 1.74%