Opinion Poll by Quorum – YouTrend for Sky TG24, 11–12 October 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 3.7% 29.6% 27.5–31.7% 27.0–32.3% 26.5–32.8% 25.5–33.9%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 40.8% 19.7% 18.0–21.6% 17.5–22.1% 17.1–22.6% 16.3–23.5%
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) 21.2% 14.8% 13.3–16.6% 12.9–17.0% 12.5–17.5% 11.8–18.3%
Lega Nord (ID) 6.2% 9.4% 8.2–10.8% 7.8–11.2% 7.5–11.6% 7.0–12.3%
Forza Italia (EPP) 16.8% 6.4% 5.4–7.6% 5.1–8.0% 4.9–8.3% 4.4–8.9%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–4.9% 2.5–5.2% 2.2–5.7%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.6% 2.0–3.9% 1.8–4.1% 1.6–4.6%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–3.1% 1.6–3.3% 1.4–3.5% 1.2–4.0%
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–3.1% 1.6–3.3% 1.4–3.5% 1.2–4.0%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.6%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.1% 0.9–2.3% 0.8–2.4% 0.6–2.8%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.8% 0.3–2.1%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.1% 0.1–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 27 24–27 24–27 23–28 22–30
Partito Democratico (S&D) 31 15 15–19 15–19 15–20 14–20
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) 17 13 10–13 10–14 10–14 10–15
Lega Nord (ID) 5 9 8–9 8–9 6–10 6–10
Forza Italia (EPP) 13 4 4–5 4–6 3–6 3–6
Azione (RE) 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–2
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 1.5% 99.6%  
23 3% 98%  
24 18% 95%  
25 5% 77%  
26 3% 72%  
27 64% 69% Median
28 3% 5%  
29 0.4% 1.4%  
30 1.0% 1.0%  
31 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.2% 99.9%  
15 64% 98.7% Median
16 5% 35%  
17 5% 29%  
18 4% 24%  
19 17% 20%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.4% 0.4%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 13% 99.9%  
11 5% 87%  
12 9% 82%  
13 63% 73% Median
14 9% 10%  
15 0.6% 0.7%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Lega Nord (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100% Last Result
6 3% 99.9%  
7 2% 97%  
8 30% 95%  
9 61% 66% Median
10 4% 4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 3% 100%  
4 72% 96% Median
5 18% 25%  
6 6% 6%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 9%  
2 0% 9%  
3 0.6% 9%  
4 6% 8%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.0%  
2 0% 1.0%  
3 0.5% 1.0%  
4 0.6% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0.2% 0.3%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0.1% 0.2%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 89% 94% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 76% 97% Median
2 21% 21%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (ID) 5 9 0% 8–9 8–9 6–10 6–10

Lega Nord (ID)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100% Last Result
6 3% 99.9%  
7 2% 97%  
8 30% 95%  
9 61% 66% Median
10 4% 4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations