Opinion Poll by Tecnè for Agenzia Dire, 26–27 October 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) |
3.7% |
28.7% |
26.9–30.6% |
26.4–31.1% |
26.0–31.6% |
25.1–32.5% |
Partito Democratico (S&D) |
40.8% |
19.8% |
18.2–21.5% |
17.8–22.0% |
17.4–22.4% |
16.7–23.2% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) |
21.2% |
16.2% |
14.8–17.8% |
14.4–18.2% |
14.0–18.6% |
13.4–19.4% |
Forza Italia (EPP) |
16.8% |
10.0% |
8.9–11.3% |
8.6–11.7% |
8.3–12.0% |
7.8–12.7% |
Lega Nord (ID) |
6.2% |
9.2% |
8.1–10.5% |
7.8–10.8% |
7.6–11.2% |
7.1–11.8% |
Azione (RE) |
0.0% |
3.6% |
2.9–4.5% |
2.8–4.7% |
2.6–5.0% |
2.3–5.4% |
Italia Viva (RE) |
0.0% |
2.5% |
2.0–3.3% |
1.8–3.5% |
1.7–3.7% |
1.5–4.1% |
Più Europa (RE) |
0.0% |
2.2% |
1.7–2.9% |
1.6–3.1% |
1.4–3.3% |
1.2–3.7% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.8% |
1.4–2.5% |
1.2–2.7% |
1.1–2.8% |
1.0–3.2% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
1.2% |
0.9–1.8% |
0.8–1.9% |
0.7–2.1% |
0.5–2.4% |
Partito Progressista (*) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
2% |
100% |
|
21 |
3% |
98% |
|
22 |
22% |
95% |
|
23 |
27% |
73% |
Median |
24 |
23% |
46% |
|
25 |
18% |
24% |
|
26 |
2% |
5% |
|
27 |
3% |
3% |
|
28 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
14 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
15 |
6% |
97% |
|
16 |
43% |
91% |
Median |
17 |
29% |
48% |
|
18 |
17% |
19% |
|
19 |
2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
11 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
12 |
15% |
95% |
|
13 |
38% |
80% |
Median |
14 |
25% |
42% |
|
15 |
16% |
17% |
|
16 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
6 |
19% |
99.3% |
|
7 |
23% |
81% |
|
8 |
52% |
57% |
Median |
9 |
5% |
5% |
|
10 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
6 |
11% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
57% |
89% |
Median |
8 |
20% |
32% |
|
9 |
10% |
11% |
|
10 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
54% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
46% |
|
2 |
0% |
46% |
|
3 |
36% |
46% |
|
4 |
9% |
9% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.6% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
42% |
100% |
|
2 |
52% |
58% |
Median |
3 |
5% |
5% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
9% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
75% |
91% |
Median |
2 |
16% |
16% |
|
3 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
2% |
2% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Lega Nord (ID) |
5 |
7 |
0% |
6–9 |
6–9 |
6–9 |
6–10 |
Lega Nord (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
6 |
11% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
57% |
89% |
Median |
8 |
20% |
32% |
|
9 |
10% |
11% |
|
10 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Tecnè
- Commissioner(s): Agenzia Dire
- Fieldwork period: 26–27 October 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.87%