Opinion Poll by Euromedia for La Stampa, 2 November 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 3.7% 28.0% 26.0–30.1% 25.5–30.7% 25.0–31.2% 24.1–32.3%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 40.8% 19.0% 17.3–20.9% 16.8–21.4% 16.4–21.9% 15.7–22.8%
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) 21.2% 17.0% 15.4–18.8% 14.9–19.3% 14.6–19.8% 13.8–20.7%
Lega Nord (ID) 6.2% 8.4% 7.2–9.8% 6.9–10.2% 6.6–10.5% 6.1–11.2%
Forza Italia (EPP) 16.8% 7.9% 6.8–9.2% 6.5–9.6% 6.2–10.0% 5.7–10.6%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.3% 3.2–5.6% 3.0–5.9% 2.7–6.4%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.2% 2.4–4.5% 2.2–4.7% 1.9–5.2%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 2.5% 1.9–3.4% 1.8–3.6% 1.6–3.8% 1.4–4.3%
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) 0.0% 2.5% 1.9–3.4% 1.8–3.6% 1.6–3.8% 1.4–4.3%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.1% 0.9–3.5%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.7–2.3% 0.5–2.7%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.2–1.3% 0.1–1.6%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.1% 0.1–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 24 23–25 21–25 21–26 20–27
Partito Democratico (S&D) 31 16 16–17 14–18 14–19 14–20
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) 17 14 13–17 13–17 12–17 11–18
Lega Nord (ID) 5 7 7–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Forza Italia (EPP) 13 5 5–6 5–7 4–7 4–8
Azione (RE) 0 5 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–3
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.0% 99.9%  
21 6% 99.0%  
22 3% 93%  
23 7% 90%  
24 34% 83% Median
25 46% 50%  
26 3% 4%  
27 0.7% 0.9%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 6% 99.8%  
15 3% 93%  
16 73% 90% Median
17 12% 18%  
18 3% 6%  
19 2% 3%  
20 1.1% 1.1%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 1.1% 100%  
12 2% 98.8%  
13 8% 97%  
14 61% 89% Median
15 4% 29%  
16 5% 24%  
17 19% 20% Last Result
18 0.5% 0.7%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.7% 100% Last Result
6 9% 99.3%  
7 64% 91% Median
8 21% 26%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.6% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 3% 99.9%  
5 64% 97% Median
6 27% 33%  
7 5% 6%  
8 0.8% 0.9%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 26% 100% Last Result
1 0% 74%  
2 0% 74%  
3 1.0% 74%  
4 16% 73%  
5 56% 57% Median
6 0.9% 0.9%  
7 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 1.2% 5%  
4 3% 4%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0.1% 0.3%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0.1% 0.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 6% 99.8%  
2 85% 94% Median
3 8% 8%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 56% 96% Median
2 40% 40%  
3 0.5% 0.5%  
4 0% 0%  

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (ID) 5 7 0% 7–8 6–9 6–9 5–10

Lega Nord (ID)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.7% 100% Last Result
6 9% 99.3%  
7 64% 91% Median
8 21% 26%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.6% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations