Opinion Poll by Noto Sondaggi for Rai 1, 16 January 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals

Party	Last Result	Poll Result	80% Confidence Interval	90% Confidence Interval	95% Confidence Interval	99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)	3.7%	32.0%	30.1–33.9%	29.6–34.5%	29.2–35.0%	28.3–35.9%
Partito Democratico (S&D)	40.8%	20.0%	18.4–21.7%	18.0–22.2%	17.6–22.6%	16.9–23.4%
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)	21.2%	17.0%	15.5–18.6%	15.1–19.1%	14.8–19.5%	14.1–20.3%
Forza Italia (EPP)	16.8%	6.5%	5.6–7.6%	5.3–7.9%	5.1–8.2%	4.7–8.8%
Lega Nord (ID)	6.2%	6.5%	5.6–7.6%	5.3–7.9%	5.1–8.2%	4.7–8.8%
Italia Viva (RE)	0.0%	3.0%	2.4–3.8%	2.2–4.1%	2.1–4.3%	1.9–4.7%
Azione (RE)	0.0%	3.0%	2.4–3.8%	2.2–4.1%	2.1–4.3%	1.9–4.7%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)	0.0%	2.2%	1.7–2.9%	1.6–3.1%	1.4–3.3%	1.2–3.7%
Più Europa (RE)	0.0%	2.0%	1.5–2.7%	1.4–2.9%	1.3–3.1%	1.1–3.4%
Noi Moderati (EPP)	0.0%	1.5%	1.1–2.1%	1.0–2.3%	0.9–2.5%	0.7–2.8%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)	0.0%	1.4%	1.0–2.0%	0.9–2.2%	0.8–2.3%	0.7–2.7%
Partito Progressista (*)	0.0%	0.4%	0.2–0.8%	0.2–0.9%	0.2–1.0%	0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Confidence Intervals

Party	Last Result	Median	80% Confidence Interval	90% Confidence Interval	95% Confidence Interval	99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)	0	28	25–30	24–30	24–30	23–31
Partito Democratico (S&D)	31	17	16–19	15–19	15–19	14–20
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)	17	14	13–15	12–15	12–16	12–17
Forza Italia (EPP)	13	4	4–5	3–5	3–6	3–6
Lega Nord (ID)	5	6	5–7	5–8	4–8	4–8
Italia Viva (RE)	0	0	0	0–3	0–4	0–4
Azione (RE)	0	0	0–3	0–3	0–4	0–4
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)	0	0	0–3	0–3	0–3	0–4
Più Europa (RE)	0	0	0	0	0	0
Noi Moderati (EPP)	0	0	0	0	0	0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)	0	0	0–2	0–2	0–2	0–3
Partito Progressista (*)	0	0	0	0	0–1	0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	0%	100%	Last Result
1	0%	100%
2	0%	100%
3	0%	100%
4	0%	100%
5	0%	100%
6	0%	100%
7	0%	100%
8	0%	100%
9	0%	100%
10	0%	100%
11	0%	100%
12	0%	100%
13	0%	100%
14	0%	100%
15	0%	100%
16	0%	100%
17	0%	100%
18	0%	100%
19	0%	100%
20	0%	100%
21	0%	100%
22	0.1%	100%
23	2%	99.9%
24	3%	98%
25	12%	95%
26	12%	83%
27	20%	71%
28	16%	52%	Median
29	10%	36%
30	25%	26%
31	0.3%	0.6%
32	0.1%	0.3%
33	0.1%	0.2%
34	0.1%	0.1%
35	0%	0%

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
13	0.3%	100%
14	0.7%	99.7%
15	7%	99.1%
16	32%	92%
17	25%	60%	Median
18	17%	34%
19	15%	17%
20	2%	2%
21	0.1%	0.1%
22	0%	0%
23	0%	0%
24	0%	0%
25	0%	0%
26	0%	0%
27	0%	0%
28	0%	0%
29	0%	0%
30	0%	0%
31	0%	0%	Last Result

Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
11	0.2%	100%
12	8%	99.8%
13	19%	91%
14	48%	72%	Median
15	20%	24%
16	3%	4%
17	0.7%	1.1%	Last Result
18	0.4%	0.4%
19	0%	0%

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
3	6%	100%
4	53%	94%	Median
5	36%	41%
6	4%	5%
7	0.4%	0.4%
8	0%	0%
9	0%	0%
10	0%	0%
11	0%	0%
12	0%	0%
13	0%	0%	Last Result

Lega Nord (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
3	0.1%	100%
4	3%	99.9%
5	20%	96%	Last Result
6	37%	76%	Median
7	30%	39%
8	9%	9%
9	0%	0%

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	93%	100%	Last Result, Median
1	0%	7%
2	0%	7%
3	4%	7%
4	3%	3%
5	0%	0%

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	87%	100%	Last Result, Median
1	0%	13%
2	0%	13%
3	9%	13%
4	4%	4%
5	0%	0%

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	51%	100%	Last Result, Median
1	0.7%	49%
2	25%	48%
3	22%	23%
4	0.5%	0.6%
5	0.1%	0.1%
6	0%	0%

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	99.9%	100%	Last Result, Median
1	0%	0.1%
2	0%	0.1%
3	0%	0.1%
4	0%	0%

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	100%	100%	Last Result, Median

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	51%	100%	Last Result, Median
1	24%	49%
2	24%	25%
3	0.9%	0.9%
4	0%	0%

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
0	96%	100%	Last Result, Median
1	4%	4%
2	0%	0%

Coalitions

Confidence Intervals

Coalition	Last Result	Median	Majority?	80% Confidence Interval	90% Confidence Interval	95% Confidence Interval	99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (ID)	5	6	0%	5–7	5–8	4–8	4–8

Lega Nord (ID)

Number of Seats	Probability	Accumulated	Special Marks
3	0.1%	100%
4	3%	99.9%
5	20%	96%	Last Result
6	37%	76%	Median
7	30%	39%
8	9%	9%
9	0%	0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

• Polling firm: Noto Sondaggi
• Commissioner(s): Rai 1
• Fieldwork period: 16 January 2024

Calculations

• Sample size: 1000
• Simulations done: 1,048,576
• Error estimate: 2.38%