Opinion Poll by Tecnè, 15–16 January 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 29.2% | 27.3–31.4% | 26.7–32.0% | 26.2–32.5% | 25.3–33.5% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 19.5% | 17.8–21.4% | 17.3–21.9% | 16.9–22.4% | 16.1–23.3% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 15.6% | 14.1–17.4% | 13.6–17.9% | 13.3–18.3% | 12.6–19.2% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 9.2% | 8.0–10.7% | 7.7–11.1% | 7.4–11.5% | 6.9–12.2% |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.1–9.6% | 6.8–10.0% | 6.5–10.4% | 6.0–11.1% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.1–4.9% | 2.9–5.2% | 2.7–5.5% | 2.4–6.0% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.2–3.8% | 2.1–4.1% | 1.9–4.3% | 1.7–4.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 23 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 21–26 | 20–27 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 15 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–18 | 13–19 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 12 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–15 | 10–15 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 21 | 9% | 98% | |
| 22 | 21% | 89% | |
| 23 | 28% | 68% | Median |
| 24 | 23% | 40% | |
| 25 | 13% | 17% | |
| 26 | 4% | 5% | |
| 27 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 14 | 16% | 96% | |
| 15 | 31% | 80% | Median |
| 16 | 29% | 49% | |
| 17 | 15% | 20% | |
| 18 | 4% | 5% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 17% | 97% | |
| 12 | 34% | 81% | Median |
| 13 | 31% | 47% | |
| 14 | 13% | 16% | |
| 15 | 3% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 5 | 13% | 99.3% | |
| 6 | 42% | 86% | Median |
| 7 | 34% | 44% | |
| 8 | 9% | 10% | |
| 9 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 8% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 6 | 38% | 92% | |
| 7 | 40% | 54% | Median |
| 8 | 13% | 14% | |
| 9 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 54% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 46% | |
| 2 | 0% | 46% | |
| 3 | 24% | 46% | |
| 4 | 21% | 22% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 4% | 6% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
Lega Nord (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 8% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 6 | 38% | 92% | |
| 7 | 40% | 54% | Median |
| 8 | 13% | 14% | |
| 9 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Tecnè
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 15–16 January 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.98%