Opinion Poll by SKDS for Latvijas Televīzija, 1–28 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” 23.0% 34.2% 31.9–36.8% 31.2–37.5% 30.6–38.1% 29.5–39.3%
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 19.5% 23.4% 21.3–25.7% 20.8–26.4% 20.3–26.9% 19.3–28.0%
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” 16.6% 12.6% 11.0–14.5% 10.6–15.0% 10.2–15.5% 9.5–16.4%
Vienotība 21.9% 7.4% 6.2–9.0% 5.9–9.4% 5.6–9.8% 5.1–10.6%
Jaunā konservatīvā partija 0.7% 6.6% 5.5–8.1% 5.2–8.5% 4.9–8.9% 4.4–9.6%
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība 6.7% 3.4% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.8% 2.2–5.1% 1.9–5.7%
KPV LV 0.0% 3.1% 2.3–4.2% 2.1–4.5% 2.0–4.8% 1.7–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” 24 39 37–41 37–42 36–43 34–46
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 21 29 26–31 25–32 25–32 24–34
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” 17 15 14–18 13–18 12–19 11–20
Vienotība 23 9 8–11 7–11 7–11 7–12
Jaunā konservatīvā partija 0 8 7–9 7–10 0–11 0–11
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība 8 0 0 0 0–6 0–6
KPV LV 0 0 0 0 0 0–6

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa”

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.9% 99.8%  
35 1.1% 98.8%  
36 2% 98%  
37 12% 96%  
38 26% 84%  
39 24% 58% Median
40 15% 34%  
41 13% 19%  
42 3% 6%  
43 1.4% 3%  
44 0.6% 1.5%  
45 0.4% 0.9%  
46 0.3% 0.5%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.0% 99.9%  
25 6% 98.9%  
26 9% 93%  
27 8% 84%  
28 20% 76%  
29 22% 55% Median
30 15% 33%  
31 10% 19%  
32 7% 8%  
33 0.9% 1.4%  
34 0.4% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK”

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 2% 98%  
13 2% 96%  
14 27% 93%  
15 19% 66% Median
16 14% 47%  
17 21% 33% Last Result
18 9% 12%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.9% 1.0%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Vienotība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vienotība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 0% 99.5%  
2 0% 99.5%  
3 0% 99.5%  
4 0% 99.5%  
5 0% 99.5%  
6 0% 99.5%  
7 8% 99.5%  
8 38% 92%  
9 26% 53% Median
10 14% 28%  
11 12% 13%  
12 0.9% 1.2%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Jaunā konservatīvā partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā konservatīvā partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 27% 96%  
8 50% 70% Median
9 13% 20%  
10 5% 7%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Latvijas Reģionu apvienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Reģionu apvienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0.3% 0.4%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

KPV LV

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KPV LV page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.1%  
2 0% 1.1%  
3 0% 1.1%  
4 0% 1.1%  
5 0% 1.1%  
6 0.9% 1.1%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – KPV LV 45 68 100% 65–70 64–72 63–73 62–76
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 61 61 100% 59–63 57–63 56–64 54–66
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība 61 53 91% 51–55 49–56 48–58 47–59
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 38 52 79% 49–54 48–55 47–55 45–57
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – KPV LV 24 39 0% 37–41 37–42 36–43 34–46

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – KPV LV

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100% Last Result
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100% Majority
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 0.7% 99.6%  
63 2% 98.9%  
64 5% 97%  
65 5% 91%  
66 9% 87%  
67 27% 78%  
68 17% 50% Median
69 17% 34%  
70 8% 17%  
71 4% 9%  
72 2% 6%  
73 1.1% 3%  
74 0.9% 2%  
75 0.6% 1.2%  
76 0.4% 0.6%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.5% 99.7%  
55 1.0% 99.2%  
56 2% 98%  
57 2% 96%  
58 4% 94%  
59 13% 90%  
60 15% 77%  
61 24% 62% Last Result, Median
62 24% 39%  
63 11% 14%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.9% 2%  
66 0.7% 0.7%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.6% 99.7%  
48 2% 99.0%  
49 3% 97%  
50 3% 94%  
51 10% 91% Majority
52 21% 81%  
53 18% 60% Median
54 21% 42%  
55 12% 20%  
56 4% 8%  
57 1.4% 4%  
58 1.4% 3%  
59 0.9% 1.3%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.2% 99.8%  
45 0.5% 99.7%  
46 0.7% 99.1%  
47 2% 98%  
48 3% 97%  
49 5% 93%  
50 10% 89%  
51 18% 79% Majority
52 15% 61% Median
53 26% 46%  
54 14% 20%  
55 4% 6%  
56 1.4% 2%  
57 0.3% 0.7%  
58 0.2% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – KPV LV

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.8% 99.8%  
35 1.1% 99.0%  
36 2% 98%  
37 12% 96%  
38 25% 84%  
39 24% 59% Median
40 15% 35%  
41 13% 20%  
42 3% 7%  
43 2% 4%  
44 1.0% 2%  
45 0.4% 1.0%  
46 0.3% 0.6%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations