Opinion Poll by SKDS for Latvijas Televīzija, 1–31 March 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” |
23.0% |
35.6% |
33.2–38.4% |
32.5–39.1% |
31.9–39.8% |
30.7–41.0% |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība |
19.5% |
24.2% |
22.1–26.8% |
21.5–27.4% |
21.0–28.0% |
20.0–29.2% |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” |
16.6% |
11.0% |
9.5–12.9% |
9.1–13.4% |
8.7–13.9% |
8.0–14.8% |
Vienotība |
21.9% |
8.6% |
7.2–10.3% |
6.9–10.7% |
6.6–11.2% |
6.0–12.0% |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija |
0.7% |
6.3% |
5.2–7.8% |
4.8–8.2% |
4.6–8.6% |
4.1–9.4% |
KPV LV |
0.0% |
3.3% |
2.5–4.5% |
2.3–4.8% |
2.1–5.2% |
1.8–5.8% |
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība |
6.7% |
2.8% |
2.1–3.9% |
1.9–4.2% |
1.7–4.5% |
1.4–5.1% |
Kustība Par! |
0.0% |
2.1% |
1.5–3.1% |
1.3–3.4% |
1.2–3.6% |
1.0–4.2% |
Latvijas Krievu savienība |
1.6% |
1.8% |
1.2–2.7% |
1.1–3.0% |
1.0–3.2% |
0.7–3.7% |
No sirds Latvijai |
6.8% |
1.6% |
1.1–2.5% |
0.9–2.7% |
0.8–3.0% |
0.6–3.5% |
Latvijas attīstībai |
0.9% |
1.2% |
0.8–2.1% |
0.7–2.3% |
0.6–2.5% |
0.4–3.0% |
Vienoti Latvijai |
1.2% |
0.5% |
0.3–1.2% |
0.2–1.4% |
0.2–1.5% |
0.1–1.9% |
Progresīvie |
0.0% |
0.5% |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa”
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
100% |
|
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.8% |
99.0% |
|
36 |
2% |
98% |
|
37 |
7% |
96% |
|
38 |
15% |
89% |
|
39 |
9% |
75% |
|
40 |
6% |
65% |
|
41 |
23% |
59% |
Median |
42 |
13% |
36% |
|
43 |
18% |
23% |
|
44 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
45 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
46 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
47 |
2% |
2% |
|
48 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
25 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
26 |
17% |
97% |
|
27 |
7% |
80% |
|
28 |
15% |
73% |
|
29 |
15% |
58% |
Median |
30 |
7% |
43% |
|
31 |
8% |
36% |
|
32 |
5% |
28% |
|
33 |
1.3% |
22% |
|
34 |
17% |
21% |
|
35 |
3% |
4% |
|
36 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
37 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK”
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
10 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
11 |
20% |
95% |
|
12 |
2% |
75% |
|
13 |
21% |
73% |
|
14 |
27% |
52% |
Median |
15 |
20% |
25% |
|
16 |
2% |
5% |
|
17 |
2% |
3% |
Last Result |
18 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vienotība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vienotība page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
2% |
100% |
|
8 |
9% |
98% |
|
9 |
9% |
89% |
|
10 |
19% |
81% |
|
11 |
53% |
61% |
Median |
12 |
2% |
8% |
|
13 |
3% |
6% |
|
14 |
2% |
2% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā konservatīvā partija page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
24% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
76% |
|
2 |
0% |
76% |
|
3 |
0% |
76% |
|
4 |
0% |
76% |
|
5 |
0% |
76% |
|
6 |
0% |
76% |
|
7 |
30% |
76% |
Median |
8 |
34% |
46% |
|
9 |
6% |
12% |
|
10 |
5% |
6% |
|
11 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
12 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
KPV LV
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KPV LV page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
2% |
|
2 |
0% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
2% |
|
4 |
0% |
2% |
|
5 |
0% |
2% |
|
6 |
2% |
2% |
|
7 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Reģionu apvienība page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.8% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
5 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Kustība Par!
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kustība Par! page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Latvijas Krievu savienība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Krievu savienība page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
No sirds Latvijai
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the No sirds Latvijai page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Latvijas attīstībai
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas attīstībai page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Vienoti Latvijai
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vienoti Latvijai page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Kustība Par! |
61 |
59 |
100% |
57–62 |
56–63 |
53–64 |
53–66 |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija |
61 |
59 |
100% |
57–62 |
56–63 |
53–64 |
53–66 |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Kustība Par! |
61 |
53 |
82% |
50–57 |
50–57 |
48–60 |
46–61 |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība |
61 |
53 |
82% |
50–57 |
50–57 |
48–60 |
46–61 |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Kustība Par! |
38 |
48 |
28% |
47–52 |
45–54 |
45–54 |
43–55 |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija |
38 |
48 |
27% |
47–52 |
45–54 |
45–54 |
43–55 |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Kustība Par! |
24 |
47 |
3% |
43–50 |
42–50 |
40–52 |
39–54 |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Kustība Par! |
38 |
42 |
0.1% |
39–47 |
39–47 |
38–49 |
37–50 |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Kustība Par! |
24 |
41 |
0% |
37–43 |
37–43 |
36–46 |
34–47 |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Kustība Par! |
40 |
31 |
0% |
23–33 |
23–34 |
22–35 |
21–36 |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Kustība Par!
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
52 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
53 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
54 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
55 |
1.1% |
97% |
|
56 |
2% |
96% |
|
57 |
18% |
94% |
|
58 |
13% |
75% |
|
59 |
23% |
62% |
|
60 |
6% |
39% |
|
61 |
9% |
33% |
Last Result, Median |
62 |
13% |
23% |
|
63 |
7% |
10% |
|
64 |
2% |
3% |
|
65 |
0.4% |
1.4% |
|
66 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
52 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
53 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
54 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
55 |
1.1% |
97% |
|
56 |
2% |
96% |
|
57 |
19% |
94% |
|
58 |
13% |
75% |
|
59 |
23% |
62% |
|
60 |
6% |
39% |
|
61 |
9% |
33% |
Last Result, Median |
62 |
13% |
23% |
|
63 |
7% |
10% |
|
64 |
2% |
3% |
|
65 |
0.4% |
1.4% |
|
66 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Kustība Par!
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
46 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
47 |
0.8% |
99.1% |
|
48 |
1.2% |
98% |
|
49 |
2% |
97% |
|
50 |
13% |
95% |
|
51 |
4% |
82% |
Majority |
52 |
26% |
79% |
|
53 |
11% |
53% |
|
54 |
13% |
42% |
Median |
55 |
4% |
29% |
|
56 |
2% |
25% |
|
57 |
18% |
23% |
|
58 |
2% |
5% |
|
59 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
60 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
61 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
46 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
47 |
0.8% |
99.1% |
|
48 |
1.2% |
98% |
|
49 |
2% |
97% |
|
50 |
13% |
95% |
|
51 |
4% |
82% |
Majority |
52 |
26% |
79% |
|
53 |
11% |
53% |
|
54 |
13% |
42% |
Median |
55 |
4% |
29% |
|
56 |
2% |
25% |
|
57 |
18% |
23% |
|
58 |
2% |
5% |
|
59 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
60 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
61 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Kustība Par!
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
38 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
42 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
43 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
44 |
0.9% |
99.3% |
|
45 |
6% |
98% |
|
46 |
2% |
93% |
|
47 |
27% |
91% |
|
48 |
18% |
64% |
|
49 |
8% |
46% |
|
50 |
10% |
38% |
Median |
51 |
14% |
28% |
Majority |
52 |
5% |
14% |
|
53 |
3% |
9% |
|
54 |
5% |
6% |
|
55 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
56 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
38 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
42 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
43 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
44 |
0.9% |
99.3% |
|
45 |
6% |
98% |
|
46 |
2% |
93% |
|
47 |
27% |
91% |
|
48 |
18% |
64% |
|
49 |
8% |
46% |
|
50 |
10% |
38% |
Median |
51 |
14% |
27% |
Majority |
52 |
5% |
13% |
|
53 |
3% |
8% |
|
54 |
5% |
6% |
|
55 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
56 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Kustība Par!
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
100% |
|
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
100% |
|
39 |
2% |
100% |
|
40 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
41 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
42 |
2% |
97% |
|
43 |
18% |
95% |
|
44 |
2% |
77% |
|
45 |
5% |
75% |
|
46 |
14% |
69% |
|
47 |
11% |
56% |
|
48 |
26% |
45% |
Median |
49 |
3% |
19% |
|
50 |
13% |
16% |
|
51 |
0.5% |
3% |
Majority |
52 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
53 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
54 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Kustība Par!
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
36 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
37 |
0.7% |
99.6% |
|
38 |
4% |
98.9% |
Last Result |
39 |
11% |
95% |
|
40 |
3% |
85% |
|
41 |
22% |
82% |
|
42 |
12% |
60% |
|
43 |
11% |
49% |
Median |
44 |
9% |
38% |
|
45 |
6% |
29% |
|
46 |
1.4% |
23% |
|
47 |
17% |
21% |
|
48 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
49 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
50 |
2% |
2% |
|
51 |
0% |
0.1% |
Majority |
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Kustība Par!
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
100% |
|
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.8% |
99.0% |
|
36 |
2% |
98% |
|
37 |
7% |
96% |
|
38 |
15% |
89% |
|
39 |
9% |
75% |
|
40 |
6% |
65% |
|
41 |
23% |
59% |
Median |
42 |
13% |
36% |
|
43 |
19% |
23% |
|
44 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
45 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
46 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
47 |
2% |
2% |
|
48 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Kustība Par!
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
21 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
22 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
23 |
17% |
97% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
80% |
|
25 |
0.8% |
80% |
|
26 |
3% |
79% |
|
27 |
2% |
76% |
|
28 |
5% |
74% |
|
29 |
3% |
69% |
|
30 |
16% |
66% |
|
31 |
5% |
50% |
|
32 |
3% |
45% |
Median |
33 |
35% |
43% |
|
34 |
3% |
8% |
|
35 |
2% |
5% |
|
36 |
2% |
2% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SKDS
- Commissioner(s): Latvijas Televīzija
- Fieldwork period: 1–31 March 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 571
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.29%