Opinion Poll by SKDS for Latvijas Televīzija, 1–31 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” 23.0% 35.6% 33.2–38.4% 32.5–39.1% 31.9–39.8% 30.7–41.0%
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 19.5% 24.2% 22.1–26.8% 21.5–27.4% 21.0–28.0% 20.0–29.2%
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” 16.6% 11.0% 9.5–12.9% 9.1–13.4% 8.7–13.9% 8.0–14.8%
Vienotība 21.9% 8.6% 7.2–10.3% 6.9–10.7% 6.6–11.2% 6.0–12.0%
Jaunā konservatīvā partija 0.7% 6.3% 5.2–7.8% 4.8–8.2% 4.6–8.6% 4.1–9.4%
KPV LV 0.0% 3.3% 2.5–4.5% 2.3–4.8% 2.1–5.2% 1.8–5.8%
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība 6.7% 2.8% 2.1–3.9% 1.9–4.2% 1.7–4.5% 1.4–5.1%
Kustība Par! 0.0% 2.1% 1.5–3.1% 1.3–3.4% 1.2–3.6% 1.0–4.2%
Latvijas Krievu savienība 1.6% 1.8% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–3.0% 1.0–3.2% 0.7–3.7%
No sirds Latvijai 6.8% 1.6% 1.1–2.5% 0.9–2.7% 0.8–3.0% 0.6–3.5%
Latvijas attīstībai 0.9% 1.2% 0.8–2.1% 0.7–2.3% 0.6–2.5% 0.4–3.0%
Vienoti Latvijai 1.2% 0.5% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4% 0.2–1.5% 0.1–1.9%
Progresīvie 0.0% 0.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” 24 41 37–43 37–43 36–46 34–47
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 21 29 26–34 26–34 25–35 24–35
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” 17 14 11–15 11–16 10–17 9–18
Vienotība 23 11 8–11 8–13 8–13 7–14
Jaunā konservatīvā partija 0 7 0–9 0–10 0–10 0–11
KPV LV 0 0 0 0 0 0–6
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība 8 0 0 0 0 0
Kustība Par! 0 0 0 0 0 0
Latvijas Krievu savienība 0 0 0 0 0 0
No sirds Latvijai 7 0 0 0 0 0
Latvijas attīstībai 0 0 0 0 0 0
Vienoti Latvijai 0 0 0 0 0 0
Progresīvie 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa”

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 1.0% 100%  
35 0.8% 99.0%  
36 2% 98%  
37 7% 96%  
38 15% 89%  
39 9% 75%  
40 6% 65%  
41 23% 59% Median
42 13% 36%  
43 18% 23%  
44 0.7% 5%  
45 0.9% 4%  
46 0.7% 3%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 1.0% 100%  
25 2% 98.9%  
26 17% 97%  
27 7% 80%  
28 15% 73%  
29 15% 58% Median
30 7% 43%  
31 8% 36%  
32 5% 28%  
33 1.3% 22%  
34 17% 21%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0% 0.4%  
37 0.4% 0.4%  
38 0% 0%  

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK”

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0.7% 99.9%  
10 4% 99.2%  
11 20% 95%  
12 2% 75%  
13 21% 73%  
14 27% 52% Median
15 20% 25%  
16 2% 5%  
17 2% 3% Last Result
18 1.0% 1.0%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Vienotība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vienotība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 2% 100%  
8 9% 98%  
9 9% 89%  
10 19% 81%  
11 53% 61% Median
12 2% 8%  
13 3% 6%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Jaunā konservatīvā partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā konservatīvā partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 24% 100% Last Result
1 0% 76%  
2 0% 76%  
3 0% 76%  
4 0% 76%  
5 0% 76%  
6 0% 76%  
7 30% 76% Median
8 34% 46%  
9 6% 12%  
10 5% 6%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

KPV LV

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KPV LV page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.2% 0.3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Latvijas Reģionu apvienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Reģionu apvienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Kustība Par!

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kustība Par! page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Latvijas Krievu savienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Krievu savienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

No sirds Latvijai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the No sirds Latvijai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Latvijas attīstībai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas attīstībai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Vienoti Latvijai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vienoti Latvijai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Kustība Par! 61 59 100% 57–62 56–63 53–64 53–66
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 61 59 100% 57–62 56–63 53–64 53–66
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Kustība Par! 61 53 82% 50–57 50–57 48–60 46–61
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība 61 53 82% 50–57 50–57 48–60 46–61
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Kustība Par! 38 48 28% 47–52 45–54 45–54 43–55
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 38 48 27% 47–52 45–54 45–54 43–55
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Kustība Par! 24 47 3% 43–50 42–50 40–52 39–54
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Kustība Par! 38 42 0.1% 39–47 39–47 38–49 37–50
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Kustība Par! 24 41 0% 37–43 37–43 36–46 34–47
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Kustība Par! 40 31 0% 23–33 23–34 22–35 21–36

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Kustība Par!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Majority
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 2% 99.8%  
54 0.7% 97%  
55 1.1% 97%  
56 2% 96%  
57 18% 94%  
58 13% 75%  
59 23% 62%  
60 6% 39%  
61 9% 33% Last Result, Median
62 13% 23%  
63 7% 10%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.4% 1.4%  
66 0.9% 0.9%  
67 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Majority
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 2% 99.8%  
54 0.7% 97%  
55 1.1% 97%  
56 2% 96%  
57 19% 94%  
58 13% 75%  
59 23% 62%  
60 6% 39%  
61 9% 33% Last Result, Median
62 13% 23%  
63 7% 10%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.4% 1.4%  
66 0.9% 0.9%  
67 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Kustība Par!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.8% 99.9%  
47 0.8% 99.1%  
48 1.2% 98%  
49 2% 97%  
50 13% 95%  
51 4% 82% Majority
52 26% 79%  
53 11% 53%  
54 13% 42% Median
55 4% 29%  
56 2% 25%  
57 18% 23%  
58 2% 5%  
59 0.2% 3%  
60 0.4% 3%  
61 2% 2% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.8% 99.9%  
47 0.8% 99.1%  
48 1.2% 98%  
49 2% 97%  
50 13% 95%  
51 4% 82% Majority
52 26% 79%  
53 11% 53%  
54 13% 42% Median
55 4% 29%  
56 2% 25%  
57 18% 23%  
58 2% 5%  
59 0.2% 3%  
60 0.4% 3%  
61 2% 2% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Kustība Par!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.4% 99.7%  
44 0.9% 99.3%  
45 6% 98%  
46 2% 93%  
47 27% 91%  
48 18% 64%  
49 8% 46%  
50 10% 38% Median
51 14% 28% Majority
52 5% 14%  
53 3% 9%  
54 5% 6%  
55 1.2% 1.3%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.4% 99.7%  
44 0.9% 99.3%  
45 6% 98%  
46 2% 93%  
47 27% 91%  
48 18% 64%  
49 8% 46%  
50 10% 38% Median
51 14% 27% Majority
52 5% 13%  
53 3% 8%  
54 5% 6%  
55 1.0% 1.2%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Kustība Par!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 2% 100%  
40 0.5% 98%  
41 0.2% 97%  
42 2% 97%  
43 18% 95%  
44 2% 77%  
45 5% 75%  
46 14% 69%  
47 11% 56%  
48 26% 45% Median
49 3% 19%  
50 13% 16%  
51 0.5% 3% Majority
52 1.0% 3%  
53 0.7% 2%  
54 0.8% 0.8%  
55 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Kustība Par!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 0.7% 99.6%  
38 4% 98.9% Last Result
39 11% 95%  
40 3% 85%  
41 22% 82%  
42 12% 60%  
43 11% 49% Median
44 9% 38%  
45 6% 29%  
46 1.4% 23%  
47 17% 21%  
48 0.7% 4%  
49 1.2% 4%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Kustība Par!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 1.0% 100%  
35 0.8% 99.0%  
36 2% 98%  
37 7% 96%  
38 15% 89%  
39 9% 75%  
40 6% 65%  
41 23% 59% Median
42 13% 36%  
43 19% 23%  
44 0.7% 5%  
45 0.9% 4%  
46 0.7% 3%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Kustība Par!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.4% 100%  
21 2% 99.6%  
22 0.6% 98%  
23 17% 97%  
24 0.1% 80%  
25 0.8% 80%  
26 3% 79%  
27 2% 76%  
28 5% 74%  
29 3% 69%  
30 16% 66%  
31 5% 50%  
32 3% 45% Median
33 35% 43%  
34 3% 8%  
35 2% 5%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations