Opinion Poll by SKDS for Latvijas Televīzija, 1–31 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” 23.0% 32.7% 30.1–35.0% 29.4–35.8% 28.8–36.4% 27.7–37.6%
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 19.5% 25.0% 22.6–27.2% 22.0–27.9% 21.5–28.5% 20.5–29.7%
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” 16.6% 11.9% 10.3–13.8% 9.9–14.3% 9.5–14.8% 8.8–15.7%
Vienotība 21.9% 6.3% 5.2–7.8% 4.9–8.2% 4.6–8.6% 4.1–9.3%
KPV LV 0.0% 5.1% 4.1–6.5% 3.8–6.9% 3.6–7.2% 3.2–7.9%
Kustība Par! 0.0% 5.1% 4.1–6.5% 3.8–6.9% 3.6–7.2% 3.2–7.9%
Jaunā konservatīvā partija 0.7% 4.1% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.7% 2.8–6.0% 2.4–6.7%
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība 6.7% 2.9% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3% 1.8–4.6% 1.5–5.2%
No sirds Latvijai 6.8% 2.7% 2.0–3.8% 1.8–4.1% 1.7–4.4% 1.4–5.0%
Latvijas Krievu savienība 1.6% 2.2% 1.6–3.2% 1.4–3.5% 1.3–3.7% 1.1–4.3%
Progresīvie 0.0% 1.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” 24 40 35–42 33–42 32–42 31–45
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 21 32 28–34 26–34 25–36 24–37
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” 17 14 12–17 11–17 11–18 10–20
Vienotība 23 8 7–10 7–10 0–11 0–11
KPV LV 0 0 0–8 0–9 0–9 0–9
Kustība Par! 0 7 0–7 0–8 0–8 0–10
Jaunā konservatīvā partija 0 0 0–7 0–7 0–7 0–8
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība 8 0 0 0 0 0
No sirds Latvijai 7 0 0 0 0 0
Latvijas Krievu savienība 0 0 0 0 0 0
Progresīvie 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa”

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.4%  
33 4% 97%  
34 1.4% 94%  
35 6% 92%  
36 5% 86%  
37 13% 81%  
38 8% 67%  
39 8% 59%  
40 6% 50% Median
41 24% 45%  
42 18% 21%  
43 0.4% 2%  
44 0.5% 2%  
45 0.9% 1.3%  
46 0.2% 0.4%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0.3% 100%  
24 0.9% 99.7%  
25 3% 98.8%  
26 1.3% 95%  
27 3% 94%  
28 4% 91%  
29 12% 86%  
30 10% 74%  
31 7% 64%  
32 28% 57% Median
33 8% 29%  
34 16% 21%  
35 2% 5%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.8% 1.2%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK”

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 2% 99.9%  
11 6% 98%  
12 24% 92%  
13 8% 69%  
14 29% 61% Median
15 10% 32%  
16 7% 22%  
17 12% 15% Last Result
18 1.3% 3%  
19 0.8% 2%  
20 0.7% 0.8%  
21 0% 0%  

Vienotība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vienotība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 0% 95%  
7 24% 95%  
8 39% 71% Median
9 12% 32%  
10 15% 20%  
11 4% 4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

KPV LV

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KPV LV page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 58% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 42%  
2 0% 42%  
3 0% 42%  
4 0% 42%  
5 0% 42%  
6 14% 42%  
7 7% 28%  
8 12% 20%  
9 8% 8%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Kustība Par!

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kustība Par! page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100% Last Result
1 0% 56%  
2 0% 56%  
3 0% 56%  
4 0% 56%  
5 0% 56%  
6 0% 56%  
7 47% 56% Median
8 7% 9%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.5% 0.6%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Jaunā konservatīvā partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā konservatīvā partija page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 12%  
2 0% 12%  
3 0% 12%  
4 0% 12%  
5 0% 12%  
6 0.9% 12%  
7 10% 11%  
8 1.0% 1.0%  
9 0% 0%  

Latvijas Reģionu apvienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Reģionu apvienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0% 0.4%  
4 0% 0.4%  
5 0% 0.4%  
6 0.3% 0.4%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

No sirds Latvijai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the No sirds Latvijai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Latvijas Krievu savienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Krievu savienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Kustība Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 61 58 99.2% 53–62 52–63 52–65 50–67
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Kustība Par! 61 58 97% 52–61 52–62 50–63 47–65
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 61 53 86% 50–58 48–60 47–60 45–62
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība 61 52 78% 48–58 46–58 45–60 43–61
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Kustība Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 38 50 49% 45–55 44–55 44–57 43–60
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Kustība Par! 38 50 41% 45–54 44–55 43–55 40–58
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 38 46 8% 43–50 41–52 40–53 39–58
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Kustība Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 24 43 3% 39–48 37–50 37–51 35–53
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Kustība Par! 24 42 0.6% 38–48 37–48 36–48 34–52
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Kustība Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 40 27 0% 22–33 21–34 20–36 16–38

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Kustība Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.8%  
49 0.1% 99.8%  
50 0.5% 99.6%  
51 1.0% 99.2% Majority
52 5% 98%  
53 6% 93%  
54 4% 87%  
55 6% 83%  
56 4% 78%  
57 8% 74%  
58 21% 66%  
59 22% 45%  
60 5% 23%  
61 4% 18% Last Result, Median
62 6% 14%  
63 4% 8%  
64 1.1% 4%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.3% 1.0%  
67 0.7% 0.8%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Kustība Par!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.8%  
46 0.2% 99.7%  
47 0.2% 99.5%  
48 0.5% 99.3%  
49 0.7% 98.8%  
50 1.0% 98%  
51 2% 97% Majority
52 6% 95%  
53 7% 89%  
54 6% 82%  
55 6% 77%  
56 4% 70%  
57 8% 66%  
58 20% 58%  
59 21% 37%  
60 4% 16%  
61 3% 12% Last Result, Median
62 5% 9%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.2% 1.4%  
65 1.0% 1.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.2% 99.8%  
45 0.2% 99.7%  
46 2% 99.4%  
47 2% 98%  
48 2% 96%  
49 2% 94%  
50 6% 92%  
51 4% 86% Majority
52 27% 82%  
53 6% 55%  
54 9% 48% Median
55 6% 39%  
56 5% 33%  
57 3% 29%  
58 19% 26%  
59 1.1% 6%  
60 3% 5%  
61 1.3% 2% Last Result
62 0.3% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.4% 99.6%  
44 0.6% 99.2%  
45 1.2% 98.6%  
46 3% 97%  
47 4% 95%  
48 3% 91%  
49 3% 88%  
50 7% 85%  
51 5% 78% Majority
52 26% 73%  
53 7% 47%  
54 8% 40% Median
55 4% 32%  
56 4% 28%  
57 2% 24%  
58 18% 22%  
59 0.7% 4%  
60 2% 3%  
61 1.1% 1.4% Last Result
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Kustība Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.9% 99.6%  
44 5% 98.6%  
45 4% 94%  
46 4% 89%  
47 8% 86%  
48 17% 78%  
49 3% 61%  
50 9% 58%  
51 25% 49% Majority
52 4% 24%  
53 4% 20% Median
54 5% 17%  
55 6% 11%  
56 2% 5%  
57 0.9% 3%  
58 0.5% 2%  
59 0.7% 2%  
60 1.0% 1.2%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Kustība Par!

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.4% 99.8%  
41 0.4% 99.5%  
42 0.8% 99.1%  
43 1.3% 98%  
44 6% 97%  
45 5% 91%  
46 6% 86%  
47 8% 80%  
48 19% 72%  
49 4% 54%  
50 10% 50%  
51 24% 41% Majority
52 4% 17%  
53 2% 13% Median
54 5% 11%  
55 5% 6%  
56 0.7% 1.5%  
57 0.1% 0.8%  
58 0.2% 0.6%  
59 0.2% 0.4%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
39 2% 99.6%  
40 2% 98%  
41 2% 96%  
42 2% 94%  
43 8% 93%  
44 27% 84%  
45 6% 57%  
46 5% 51% Median
47 15% 46%  
48 17% 31%  
49 3% 14%  
50 3% 12%  
51 3% 8% Majority
52 2% 5%  
53 1.3% 3%  
54 0.6% 2%  
55 0.4% 1.1%  
56 0.1% 0.7%  
57 0% 0.6%  
58 0.2% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.3%  
60 0.3% 0.3%  
61 0% 0%  

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Kustība Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.8% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.1%  
37 5% 98.5%  
38 2% 94%  
39 6% 92%  
40 6% 86%  
41 6% 80%  
42 21% 74%  
43 3% 52%  
44 8% 49%  
45 4% 41%  
46 6% 37%  
47 3% 32% Median
48 20% 28%  
49 3% 8%  
50 2% 5%  
51 1.0% 3% Majority
52 0.3% 2%  
53 2% 2%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Kustība Par!

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.7%  
34 0.3% 99.5%  
35 0.9% 99.2%  
36 0.8% 98%  
37 6% 97%  
38 3% 92%  
39 7% 89%  
40 8% 83%  
41 6% 75%  
42 23% 69%  
43 4% 46%  
44 8% 41%  
45 3% 33%  
46 6% 30%  
47 2% 24% Median
48 20% 21%  
49 0.7% 2%  
50 0.3% 0.9%  
51 0.1% 0.6% Majority
52 0.2% 0.5%  
53 0.3% 0.3%  
54 0% 0%  

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Kustība Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.1% 99.9%  
15 0.3% 99.8%  
16 0% 99.5%  
17 0.4% 99.5%  
18 0.2% 99.1%  
19 0.5% 98.9%  
20 3% 98%  
21 2% 96%  
22 4% 94%  
23 4% 90%  
24 19% 85%  
25 9% 66%  
26 6% 58%  
27 22% 52%  
28 4% 31%  
29 5% 27% Median
30 2% 22%  
31 7% 20%  
32 3% 13%  
33 4% 10%  
34 2% 6%  
35 0.9% 4%  
36 1.1% 3%  
37 1.2% 2%  
38 0.7% 0.8%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations