Opinion Poll by FACTUM, 17–23 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” 23.0% 19.4% 18.7–21.4% 18.4–21.8% 18.1–22.1% 17.5–22.8%
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” 16.6% 14.3% 13.6–16.0% 13.3–16.3% 13.0–16.6% 12.5–17.2%
KPV LV 0.0% 14.3% 13.6–16.0% 13.3–16.3% 13.0–16.6% 12.5–17.2%
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 19.5% 12.2% 11.6–13.8% 11.3–14.1% 11.1–14.4% 10.6–15.0%
Kustība Par! 0.0% 11.2% 10.6–12.7% 10.3–13.0% 10.0–13.3% 9.6–13.9%
Jaunā konservatīvā partija 0.7% 10.2% 9.5–11.6% 9.3–11.9% 9.1–12.2% 8.6–12.7%
Vienotība 21.9% 5.1% 4.6–6.1% 4.4–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.0–7.0%
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība 6.7% 4.1% 3.6–5.0% 3.4–5.2% 3.3–5.4% 3.0–5.7%
Progresīvie 0.0% 3.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Latvijas Krievu savienība 1.6% 2.0% 1.7–2.6% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–2.9% 1.3–3.2%
No sirds Latvijai 6.8% 1.0% 0.8–1.5% 0.7–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.5–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” 24 22 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” 17 16 14–18 14–18 13–18 13–19
KPV LV 0 16 14–17 14–17 13–18 13–19
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 21 15 14–16 14–17 13–17 11–18
Kustība Par! 0 13 11–14 10–14 10–15 10–16
Jaunā konservatīvā partija 0 12 11–13 9–14 8–15 8–15
Vienotība 23 7 0–7 0–7 0–7 0–7
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība 8 0 0–7 0–7 0–7 0–7
Progresīvie 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Latvijas Krievu savienība 0 0 0 0 0 0
No sirds Latvijai 7 0 0 0 0 0

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa”

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.2% 99.9%  
20 8% 98.7%  
21 27% 90%  
22 15% 63% Median
23 14% 48%  
24 25% 34% Last Result
25 7% 9%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK”

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 3% 100%  
14 26% 97%  
15 10% 71%  
16 26% 61% Median
17 10% 35% Last Result
18 24% 25%  
19 0.9% 1.0%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

KPV LV

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KPV LV page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.2% 100%  
13 4% 99.8%  
14 13% 96%  
15 24% 83%  
16 19% 58% Median
17 35% 39%  
18 2% 4%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 1.4% 100%  
12 0.5% 98.6%  
13 1.4% 98%  
14 27% 97%  
15 50% 70% Median
16 11% 20%  
17 8% 9%  
18 0.5% 0.5%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

Kustība Par!

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kustība Par! page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.3% 100%  
10 5% 99.7%  
11 8% 94%  
12 11% 87%  
13 39% 76% Median
14 32% 37%  
15 4% 4%  
16 0.6% 0.6%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Jaunā konservatīvā partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā konservatīvā partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 3% 100%  
9 2% 97%  
10 2% 95%  
11 5% 92%  
12 52% 88% Median
13 27% 36%  
14 5% 9%  
15 4% 4%  
16 0% 0%  

Vienotība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vienotība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100%  
1 0% 68%  
2 0% 68%  
3 0% 68%  
4 0% 68%  
5 0% 68%  
6 0% 68%  
7 68% 68% Median
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Latvijas Reģionu apvienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Reģionu apvienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Median
1 0% 13%  
2 0% 13%  
3 0% 13%  
4 0% 13%  
5 0% 13%  
6 1.0% 13%  
7 12% 12%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Latvijas Krievu savienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Krievu savienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

No sirds Latvijai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the No sirds Latvijai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Kustība Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Vienotība 61 61 100% 57–64 54–65 54–65 54–65
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Kustība Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 38 56 98% 53–60 52–61 51–61 47–61
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Kustība Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 24 47 12% 45–51 44–52 43–53 41–54
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Kustība Par! – Vienotība 61 49 26% 45–52 43–53 41–53 41–53
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Vienotība 61 48 12% 44–51 42–52 42–52 41–53
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Kustība Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Vienotība 40 46 3% 42–49 40–50 39–51 39–51
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Kustība Par! 38 44 0% 41–47 40–49 39–49 38–49
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 38 43 0% 41–47 40–47 39–47 36–48
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība 61 36 0% 32–39 30–39 29–40 29–41
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Kustība Par! 24 35 0% 33–38 32–39 31–39 30–40

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Kustība Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Vienotība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 5% 99.8%  
55 1.0% 95%  
56 0.7% 94%  
57 3% 93%  
58 5% 90%  
59 10% 85%  
60 10% 75%  
61 28% 65% Last Result
62 9% 37%  
63 13% 28% Median
64 9% 15%  
65 5% 6%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Kustība Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0.9% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.1%  
49 0.1% 99.1%  
50 1.1% 98.9%  
51 2% 98% Majority
52 2% 96%  
53 6% 94%  
54 24% 88%  
55 10% 63%  
56 13% 54% Median
57 11% 40%  
58 9% 29%  
59 8% 21%  
60 4% 13%  
61 8% 9%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Kustība Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 1.3% 99.9%  
42 0.6% 98.6%  
43 2% 98%  
44 5% 96%  
45 9% 91%  
46 7% 81%  
47 27% 75% Median
48 7% 47%  
49 24% 41%  
50 5% 17%  
51 6% 12% Majority
52 4% 6%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.7% 0.8%  
55 0% 0%  

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Kustība Par! – Vienotība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 4% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 96%  
43 1.0% 96%  
44 3% 95%  
45 5% 91%  
46 7% 87%  
47 11% 80%  
48 6% 69%  
49 27% 63%  
50 10% 36%  
51 11% 26% Median, Majority
52 9% 15%  
53 6% 6%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Vienotība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 0.6% 99.6%  
42 5% 99.1%  
43 2% 94%  
44 3% 93%  
45 8% 90%  
46 6% 82%  
47 15% 75%  
48 22% 61%  
49 8% 39%  
50 19% 31% Median
51 7% 12% Majority
52 4% 5%  
53 0.9% 0.9%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Kustība Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Vienotība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 4% 99.8%  
40 1.2% 95% Last Result
41 3% 94%  
42 3% 91%  
43 5% 88%  
44 14% 83%  
45 7% 69%  
46 22% 62%  
47 7% 40%  
48 12% 33% Median
49 15% 22%  
50 4% 6%  
51 3% 3% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Kustība Par!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 2% 99.8% Last Result
39 2% 98%  
40 4% 96%  
41 7% 92%  
42 22% 86%  
43 11% 64%  
44 14% 53% Median
45 12% 38%  
46 11% 26%  
47 8% 16%  
48 3% 8%  
49 5% 5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 1.0% 99.9%  
37 0.2% 98.9%  
38 0.8% 98.7% Last Result
39 1.3% 98%  
40 6% 97%  
41 22% 91%  
42 12% 69%  
43 20% 57% Median
44 9% 37%  
45 12% 28%  
46 6% 17%  
47 9% 10%  
48 0.7% 1.0%  
49 0.2% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 4% 99.9%  
30 2% 96%  
31 4% 94%  
32 3% 90%  
33 9% 87%  
34 5% 77%  
35 10% 72%  
36 23% 62%  
37 11% 39%  
38 16% 28% Median
39 9% 12%  
40 3% 3%  
41 0.7% 0.7%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Kustība Par!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.3% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.7%  
31 4% 99.4%  
32 3% 96%  
33 7% 93%  
34 22% 86%  
35 17% 64% Median
36 9% 47%  
37 25% 38%  
38 6% 13%  
39 4% 7%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.4% 0.4%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations