Opinion Poll by SKDS for Latvijas Televīzija, 1–23 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” 23.0% 33.0% 30.7–35.7% 30.1–36.5% 29.5–37.1% 28.3–38.3%
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 19.5% 17.6% 15.9–19.9% 15.3–20.6% 14.9–21.1% 14.0–22.2%
KPV LV 0.0% 11.5% 10.1–13.5% 9.6–14.0% 9.3–14.5% 8.6–15.4%
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” 16.6% 9.4% 8.0–11.1% 7.6–11.6% 7.3–12.0% 6.7–12.9%
Vienotība 21.9% 7.9% 6.6–9.5% 6.2–9.9% 5.9–10.3% 5.4–11.2%
Attīstībai–Par! 0.9% 4.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.5% 3.3–6.8% 2.9–7.5%
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība 6.7% 4.4% 3.5–5.7% 3.3–6.1% 3.0–6.4% 2.7–7.1%
Jaunā konservatīvā partija 0.7% 4.4% 3.5–5.7% 3.3–6.1% 3.0–6.4% 2.7–7.1%
No sirds Latvijai 6.8% 2.7% 2.0–3.8% 1.8–4.1% 1.7–4.4% 1.4–5.0%
Progresīvie 0.0% 2.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Latvijas Krievu savienība 1.6% 1.9% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.1% 1.1–3.3% 0.8–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” 24 38 36–41 35–42 34–43 32–46
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 21 23 19–24 19–26 19–26 17–28
KPV LV 0 15 12–16 11–17 11–17 9–17
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” 17 11 10–14 8–14 8–15 7–16
Vienotība 23 9 8–12 7–12 7–12 7–13
Attīstībai–Par! 0 0 0 0 0 0
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība 8 0 0–7 0–7 0–8 0–9
Jaunā konservatīvā partija 0 0 0–7 0–7 0–7 0–8
No sirds Latvijai 7 0 0 0 0 0
Progresīvie 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Latvijas Krievu savienība 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa”

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.7% 99.8%  
33 1.0% 99.1%  
34 2% 98%  
35 3% 96%  
36 7% 92%  
37 24% 85%  
38 12% 61% Median
39 10% 49%  
40 13% 39%  
41 19% 26%  
42 3% 7%  
43 3% 5%  
44 0.6% 1.4%  
45 0.2% 0.8%  
46 0.3% 0.7%  
47 0.4% 0.4%  
48 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.5% 100%  
17 0.5% 99.5%  
18 1.2% 99.0%  
19 9% 98%  
20 7% 89%  
21 13% 82% Last Result
22 3% 69%  
23 20% 67% Median
24 37% 47%  
25 5% 10%  
26 3% 5%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.3% 0.7%  
29 0.1% 0.4%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

KPV LV

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KPV LV page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 1.1% 100%  
10 0.9% 98.9%  
11 6% 98%  
12 5% 92%  
13 17% 87%  
14 6% 70%  
15 49% 64% Median
16 9% 15%  
17 6% 6%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK”

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9%  
8 3% 98%  
9 3% 95%  
10 5% 92%  
11 46% 87% Median
12 15% 41%  
13 9% 25%  
14 12% 16%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.3% 0.5%  
17 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Vienotība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vienotība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 6% 99.9%  
8 22% 94%  
9 23% 72% Median
10 20% 49%  
11 17% 29%  
12 11% 13%  
13 1.3% 2%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Attīstībai–Par!

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Attīstībai–Par! page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Latvijas Reģionu apvienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Reģionu apvienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Median
1 0% 22%  
2 0% 22%  
3 0% 22%  
4 0% 22%  
5 0% 22%  
6 6% 22%  
7 13% 16%  
8 1.4% 3% Last Result
9 1.3% 1.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Jaunā konservatīvā partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā konservatīvā partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 24%  
2 0% 24%  
3 0% 24%  
4 0% 24%  
5 0% 24%  
6 0.2% 24%  
7 22% 23%  
8 1.0% 1.0%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

No sirds Latvijai

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the No sirds Latvijai page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0% 0.3%  
4 0% 0.3%  
5 0% 0.3%  
6 0.2% 0.3%  
7 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Latvijas Krievu savienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Krievu savienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Attīstībai–Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 61 45 6% 42–49 41–51 40–53 38–53
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 61 45 6% 42–49 41–51 40–53 38–53
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Attīstībai–Par! 61 44 0.7% 40–48 39–48 38–49 36–51
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība 61 44 0.7% 40–48 39–48 38–49 36–51
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai–Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 24 40 0% 37–44 37–45 35–46 34–47
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai–Par! 24 38 0% 36–41 35–42 34–43 32–46
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 38 36 0% 32–40 31–42 30–43 29–44
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 38 36 0% 32–40 31–42 30–43 29–44
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! 38 35 0% 31–37 30–38 29–39 26–41
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Attīstībai–Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija 40 23 0% 19–28 19–29 18–30 16–31

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Attīstībai–Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.7% 99.8%  
39 1.3% 99.1%  
40 3% 98%  
41 4% 95%  
42 5% 91%  
43 6% 86% Median
44 27% 80%  
45 8% 54%  
46 6% 46%  
47 11% 40%  
48 16% 29%  
49 5% 13%  
50 3% 8%  
51 1.5% 6% Majority
52 1.4% 4%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.7% 99.8%  
39 1.3% 99.1%  
40 3% 98%  
41 4% 95%  
42 5% 91%  
43 6% 86% Median
44 27% 80%  
45 8% 54%  
46 6% 46%  
47 11% 40%  
48 16% 29%  
49 5% 13%  
50 3% 8%  
51 1.5% 6% Majority
52 1.4% 4%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Attīstībai–Par!

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.8% 99.7%  
37 0.8% 98.9%  
38 3% 98%  
39 3% 95%  
40 6% 92%  
41 9% 86%  
42 7% 76%  
43 7% 69% Median
44 27% 62%  
45 7% 36%  
46 6% 29%  
47 9% 23%  
48 10% 14%  
49 2% 4%  
50 1.2% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.7% Majority
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.8% 99.7%  
37 0.8% 98.9%  
38 3% 98%  
39 3% 95%  
40 6% 92%  
41 9% 86%  
42 7% 76%  
43 7% 69% Median
44 27% 62%  
45 7% 36%  
46 6% 29%  
47 9% 23%  
48 10% 14%  
49 2% 4%  
50 1.2% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.7% Majority
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai–Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.9% 99.6%  
35 2% 98.7%  
36 2% 97%  
37 16% 95%  
38 9% 80% Median
39 10% 71%  
40 13% 61%  
41 20% 48%  
42 5% 28%  
43 8% 23%  
44 9% 15%  
45 4% 6%  
46 1.1% 3%  
47 0.9% 1.4%  
48 0.2% 0.5%  
49 0% 0.3%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai–Par!

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.7% 99.8%  
33 1.0% 99.1%  
34 2% 98%  
35 3% 96%  
36 7% 92%  
37 24% 85%  
38 12% 61% Median
39 10% 49%  
40 13% 39%  
41 19% 26%  
42 3% 7%  
43 3% 5%  
44 0.6% 1.4%  
45 0.2% 0.8%  
46 0.3% 0.7%  
47 0.4% 0.4%  
48 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.8% 99.8%  
30 2% 98.9%  
31 3% 97%  
32 12% 94%  
33 3% 83%  
34 8% 79% Median
35 20% 71%  
36 8% 51%  
37 18% 43%  
38 10% 26% Last Result
39 3% 16%  
40 3% 13%  
41 5% 10%  
42 2% 5%  
43 0.7% 3%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.8% 99.8%  
30 2% 98.9%  
31 3% 97%  
32 12% 94%  
33 3% 83%  
34 8% 79% Median
35 20% 71%  
36 8% 51%  
37 18% 43%  
38 10% 26% Last Result
39 3% 16%  
40 3% 13%  
41 5% 10%  
42 2% 5%  
43 0.7% 3%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par!

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 0.4% 99.4%  
28 1.2% 99.0%  
29 2% 98%  
30 4% 96%  
31 9% 92%  
32 13% 83%  
33 5% 70%  
34 11% 65% Median
35 21% 53%  
36 8% 32%  
37 17% 25%  
38 4% 7% Last Result
39 2% 3%  
40 0.6% 2%  
41 0.7% 1.0%  
42 0.3% 0.3%  
43 0% 0%  

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Attīstībai–Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0.1% 99.9%  
16 0.7% 99.8%  
17 0.6% 99.1%  
18 3% 98.5%  
19 9% 96%  
20 18% 87% Median
21 9% 69%  
22 6% 60%  
23 12% 55%  
24 18% 42%  
25 8% 25%  
26 3% 17%  
27 3% 14%  
28 5% 10%  
29 2% 6%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.4% 0.8%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations