Opinion Poll by SKDS for Latvijas Televīzija, 1–23 August 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” |
23.0% |
33.0% |
30.7–35.7% |
30.1–36.5% |
29.5–37.1% |
28.3–38.3% |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība |
19.5% |
17.6% |
15.9–19.9% |
15.3–20.6% |
14.9–21.1% |
14.0–22.2% |
KPV LV |
0.0% |
11.5% |
10.1–13.5% |
9.6–14.0% |
9.3–14.5% |
8.6–15.4% |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” |
16.6% |
9.4% |
8.0–11.1% |
7.6–11.6% |
7.3–12.0% |
6.7–12.9% |
Vienotība |
21.9% |
7.9% |
6.6–9.5% |
6.2–9.9% |
5.9–10.3% |
5.4–11.2% |
Attīstībai–Par! |
0.9% |
4.8% |
3.8–6.1% |
3.6–6.5% |
3.3–6.8% |
2.9–7.5% |
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība |
6.7% |
4.4% |
3.5–5.7% |
3.3–6.1% |
3.0–6.4% |
2.7–7.1% |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija |
0.7% |
4.4% |
3.5–5.7% |
3.3–6.1% |
3.0–6.4% |
2.7–7.1% |
No sirds Latvijai |
6.8% |
2.7% |
2.0–3.8% |
1.8–4.1% |
1.7–4.4% |
1.4–5.0% |
Progresīvie |
0.0% |
2.2% |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
Latvijas Krievu savienība |
1.6% |
1.9% |
1.3–2.8% |
1.2–3.1% |
1.1–3.3% |
0.8–3.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa”
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
33 |
1.0% |
99.1% |
|
34 |
2% |
98% |
|
35 |
3% |
96% |
|
36 |
7% |
92% |
|
37 |
24% |
85% |
|
38 |
12% |
61% |
Median |
39 |
10% |
49% |
|
40 |
13% |
39% |
|
41 |
19% |
26% |
|
42 |
3% |
7% |
|
43 |
3% |
5% |
|
44 |
0.6% |
1.4% |
|
45 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
46 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
47 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.5% |
99.5% |
|
18 |
1.2% |
99.0% |
|
19 |
9% |
98% |
|
20 |
7% |
89% |
|
21 |
13% |
82% |
Last Result |
22 |
3% |
69% |
|
23 |
20% |
67% |
Median |
24 |
37% |
47% |
|
25 |
5% |
10% |
|
26 |
3% |
5% |
|
27 |
2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
KPV LV
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KPV LV page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
10 |
0.9% |
98.9% |
|
11 |
6% |
98% |
|
12 |
5% |
92% |
|
13 |
17% |
87% |
|
14 |
6% |
70% |
|
15 |
49% |
64% |
Median |
16 |
9% |
15% |
|
17 |
6% |
6% |
|
18 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
20 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK”
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
7 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
8 |
3% |
98% |
|
9 |
3% |
95% |
|
10 |
5% |
92% |
|
11 |
46% |
87% |
Median |
12 |
15% |
41% |
|
13 |
9% |
25% |
|
14 |
12% |
16% |
|
15 |
3% |
4% |
|
16 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vienotība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vienotība page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
3 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
6% |
99.9% |
|
8 |
22% |
94% |
|
9 |
23% |
72% |
Median |
10 |
20% |
49% |
|
11 |
17% |
29% |
|
12 |
11% |
13% |
|
13 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
14 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Attīstībai–Par!
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Attīstībai–Par! page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Reģionu apvienība page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
78% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
22% |
|
2 |
0% |
22% |
|
3 |
0% |
22% |
|
4 |
0% |
22% |
|
5 |
0% |
22% |
|
6 |
6% |
22% |
|
7 |
13% |
16% |
|
8 |
1.4% |
3% |
Last Result |
9 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Jaunā konservatīvā partija
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā konservatīvā partija page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
76% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
24% |
|
2 |
0% |
24% |
|
3 |
0% |
24% |
|
4 |
0% |
24% |
|
5 |
0% |
24% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
24% |
|
7 |
22% |
23% |
|
8 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
No sirds Latvijai
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the No sirds Latvijai page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.7% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
5 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Latvijas Krievu savienība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Krievu savienība page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Attīstībai–Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija |
61 |
45 |
6% |
42–49 |
41–51 |
40–53 |
38–53 |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija |
61 |
45 |
6% |
42–49 |
41–51 |
40–53 |
38–53 |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Attīstībai–Par! |
61 |
44 |
0.7% |
40–48 |
39–48 |
38–49 |
36–51 |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība |
61 |
44 |
0.7% |
40–48 |
39–48 |
38–49 |
36–51 |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai–Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija |
24 |
40 |
0% |
37–44 |
37–45 |
35–46 |
34–47 |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai–Par! |
24 |
38 |
0% |
36–41 |
35–42 |
34–43 |
32–46 |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija |
38 |
36 |
0% |
32–40 |
31–42 |
30–43 |
29–44 |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija |
38 |
36 |
0% |
32–40 |
31–42 |
30–43 |
29–44 |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! |
38 |
35 |
0% |
31–37 |
30–38 |
29–39 |
26–41 |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Attīstībai–Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija |
40 |
23 |
0% |
19–28 |
19–29 |
18–30 |
16–31 |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Attīstībai–Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
38 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
39 |
1.3% |
99.1% |
|
40 |
3% |
98% |
|
41 |
4% |
95% |
|
42 |
5% |
91% |
|
43 |
6% |
86% |
Median |
44 |
27% |
80% |
|
45 |
8% |
54% |
|
46 |
6% |
46% |
|
47 |
11% |
40% |
|
48 |
16% |
29% |
|
49 |
5% |
13% |
|
50 |
3% |
8% |
|
51 |
1.5% |
6% |
Majority |
52 |
1.4% |
4% |
|
53 |
2% |
3% |
|
54 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Jaunā konservatīvā partija
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
38 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
39 |
1.3% |
99.1% |
|
40 |
3% |
98% |
|
41 |
4% |
95% |
|
42 |
5% |
91% |
|
43 |
6% |
86% |
Median |
44 |
27% |
80% |
|
45 |
8% |
54% |
|
46 |
6% |
46% |
|
47 |
11% |
40% |
|
48 |
16% |
29% |
|
49 |
5% |
13% |
|
50 |
3% |
8% |
|
51 |
1.5% |
6% |
Majority |
52 |
1.4% |
4% |
|
53 |
2% |
3% |
|
54 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Attīstībai–Par!
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
36 |
0.8% |
99.7% |
|
37 |
0.8% |
98.9% |
|
38 |
3% |
98% |
|
39 |
3% |
95% |
|
40 |
6% |
92% |
|
41 |
9% |
86% |
|
42 |
7% |
76% |
|
43 |
7% |
69% |
Median |
44 |
27% |
62% |
|
45 |
7% |
36% |
|
46 |
6% |
29% |
|
47 |
9% |
23% |
|
48 |
10% |
14% |
|
49 |
2% |
4% |
|
50 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
51 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
Majority |
52 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
36 |
0.8% |
99.7% |
|
37 |
0.8% |
98.9% |
|
38 |
3% |
98% |
|
39 |
3% |
95% |
|
40 |
6% |
92% |
|
41 |
9% |
86% |
|
42 |
7% |
76% |
|
43 |
7% |
69% |
Median |
44 |
27% |
62% |
|
45 |
7% |
36% |
|
46 |
6% |
29% |
|
47 |
9% |
23% |
|
48 |
10% |
14% |
|
49 |
2% |
4% |
|
50 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
51 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
Majority |
52 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai–Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
33 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
34 |
0.9% |
99.6% |
|
35 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
36 |
2% |
97% |
|
37 |
16% |
95% |
|
38 |
9% |
80% |
Median |
39 |
10% |
71% |
|
40 |
13% |
61% |
|
41 |
20% |
48% |
|
42 |
5% |
28% |
|
43 |
8% |
23% |
|
44 |
9% |
15% |
|
45 |
4% |
6% |
|
46 |
1.1% |
3% |
|
47 |
0.9% |
1.4% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
49 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
50 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai–Par!
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
33 |
1.0% |
99.1% |
|
34 |
2% |
98% |
|
35 |
3% |
96% |
|
36 |
7% |
92% |
|
37 |
24% |
85% |
|
38 |
12% |
61% |
Median |
39 |
10% |
49% |
|
40 |
13% |
39% |
|
41 |
19% |
26% |
|
42 |
3% |
7% |
|
43 |
3% |
5% |
|
44 |
0.6% |
1.4% |
|
45 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
46 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
47 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
0.8% |
99.8% |
|
30 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
31 |
3% |
97% |
|
32 |
12% |
94% |
|
33 |
3% |
83% |
|
34 |
8% |
79% |
Median |
35 |
20% |
71% |
|
36 |
8% |
51% |
|
37 |
18% |
43% |
|
38 |
10% |
26% |
Last Result |
39 |
3% |
16% |
|
40 |
3% |
13% |
|
41 |
5% |
10% |
|
42 |
2% |
5% |
|
43 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
44 |
2% |
2% |
|
45 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
0.8% |
99.8% |
|
30 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
31 |
3% |
97% |
|
32 |
12% |
94% |
|
33 |
3% |
83% |
|
34 |
8% |
79% |
Median |
35 |
20% |
71% |
|
36 |
8% |
51% |
|
37 |
18% |
43% |
|
38 |
10% |
26% |
Last Result |
39 |
3% |
16% |
|
40 |
3% |
13% |
|
41 |
5% |
10% |
|
42 |
2% |
5% |
|
43 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
44 |
2% |
2% |
|
45 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par!
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
28 |
1.2% |
99.0% |
|
29 |
2% |
98% |
|
30 |
4% |
96% |
|
31 |
9% |
92% |
|
32 |
13% |
83% |
|
33 |
5% |
70% |
|
34 |
11% |
65% |
Median |
35 |
21% |
53% |
|
36 |
8% |
32% |
|
37 |
17% |
25% |
|
38 |
4% |
7% |
Last Result |
39 |
2% |
3% |
|
40 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
41 |
0.7% |
1.0% |
|
42 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Attīstībai–Par! – Jaunā konservatīvā partija
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
0.6% |
99.1% |
|
18 |
3% |
98.5% |
|
19 |
9% |
96% |
|
20 |
18% |
87% |
Median |
21 |
9% |
69% |
|
22 |
6% |
60% |
|
23 |
12% |
55% |
|
24 |
18% |
42% |
|
25 |
8% |
25% |
|
26 |
3% |
17% |
|
27 |
3% |
14% |
|
28 |
5% |
10% |
|
29 |
2% |
6% |
|
30 |
3% |
4% |
|
31 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
32 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
33 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SKDS
- Commissioner(s): Latvijas Televīzija
- Fieldwork period: 1–23 August 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 585
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.81%