Opinion Poll by FACTUM, 20–26 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” 23.0% 20.0% 19.2–22.1% 18.8–22.5% 18.5–22.8% 17.9–23.6%
KPV LV 0.0% 16.2% 15.4–18.0% 15.0–18.4% 14.7–18.7% 14.2–19.4%
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 19.5% 11.4% 10.7–13.0% 10.4–13.3% 10.2–13.6% 9.7–14.2%
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” 16.6% 11.4% 10.7–13.0% 10.4–13.3% 10.2–13.6% 9.7–14.2%
Jaunā konservatīvā partija 0.7% 11.4% 10.7–13.0% 10.4–13.3% 10.2–13.6% 9.7–14.2%
Attīstībai–Par! 0.9% 10.4% 9.8–12.0% 9.5–12.3% 9.3–12.6% 8.8–13.2%
Vienotība 21.9% 6.6% 6.1–7.8% 5.8–8.1% 5.6–8.4% 5.3–8.8%
Progresīvie 0.0% 2.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība 6.7% 1.9% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.7% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.1%
Latvijas Krievu savienība 1.6% 1.9% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.7% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” 24 22 22–23 22–24 21–25 20–26
KPV LV 0 18 17–19 16–20 16–20 15–21
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 21 14 13–15 12–15 11–15 11–16
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” 17 13 12–13 12–14 12–15 11–16
Jaunā konservatīvā partija 0 13 13–15 12–15 12–15 11–15
Attīstībai–Par! 0 12 10–13 10–13 10–14 10–15
Vienotība 23 7 7–8 7–9 7–9 7–9
Progresīvie 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība 8 0 0 0 0 0
Latvijas Krievu savienība 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa”

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.1% 99.8%  
21 3% 98.7%  
22 53% 96% Median
23 33% 43%  
24 6% 10% Last Result
25 2% 4%  
26 1.0% 1.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

KPV LV

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KPV LV page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.2% 99.9%  
16 4% 98.8%  
17 35% 95%  
18 25% 60% Median
19 28% 34%  
20 5% 6%  
21 0.5% 0.7%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 3% 99.9%  
12 5% 97%  
13 6% 92%  
14 57% 86% Median
15 29% 29%  
16 0.5% 0.6%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK”

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 0.5% 99.8%  
12 15% 99.2%  
13 76% 85% Median
14 5% 9%  
15 4% 4%  
16 0.4% 0.6%  
17 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
18 0% 0%  

Jaunā konservatīvā partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā konservatīvā partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.2% 99.9%  
11 0.6% 99.7%  
12 5% 99.0%  
13 67% 94% Median
14 12% 26%  
15 14% 14%  
16 0% 0%  

Attīstībai–Par!

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Attīstībai–Par! page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 17% 99.9%  
11 15% 83%  
12 40% 68% Median
13 25% 27%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.7% 0.7%  
16 0% 0%  

Vienotība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vienotība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 69% 99.9% Median
8 24% 31%  
9 6% 6%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Latvijas Reģionu apvienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Reģionu apvienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Latvijas Krievu savienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Krievu savienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība 61 59 100% 58–61 58–61 57–62 56–63
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Attīstībai–Par! 38 52 93% 51–54 50–54 50–54 49–55
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Attīstībai–Par! 24 48 2% 46–49 45–50 45–50 44–52
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība 61 47 2% 46–49 46–50 45–50 44–51
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība 61 46 0% 45–48 44–48 43–49 42–49
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība 40 45 0% 44–47 44–48 43–48 42–49
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 38 40 0% 39–42 39–42 38–43 37–44
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Attīstībai–Par! 38 39 0% 37–40 37–40 36–41 35–42
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai–Par! 24 34 0% 33–36 32–36 32–37 31–38
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība 61 34 0% 33–36 33–36 31–36 31–37

Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 1.2% 99.8%  
57 2% 98.6%  
58 9% 97%  
59 41% 87% Median
60 25% 46%  
61 18% 21% Last Result
62 3% 3%  
63 0.5% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Attīstībai–Par!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 1.5% 99.7%  
50 6% 98%  
51 14% 93% Majority
52 45% 78% Median
53 22% 34%  
54 10% 12%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Attīstībai–Par!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.5% 99.9%  
45 7% 99.4%  
46 8% 92%  
47 29% 84% Median
48 32% 55%  
49 13% 23%  
50 7% 9%  
51 2% 2% Majority
52 0.7% 0.8%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.5% 99.8%  
45 2% 99.3%  
46 8% 97%  
47 40% 89% Median
48 21% 50%  
49 23% 29%  
50 4% 6%  
51 1.5% 2% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.4% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.6%  
43 2% 99.4%  
44 5% 97%  
45 11% 92%  
46 44% 81% Median
47 27% 37%  
48 7% 10%  
49 3% 3%  
50 0.4% 0.4%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100% Last Result
41 0.2% 100%  
42 1.3% 99.8%  
43 3% 98.5%  
44 19% 96%  
45 34% 77% Median
46 20% 43%  
47 14% 23%  
48 7% 9%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 1.0% 99.8%  
38 3% 98.7% Last Result
39 11% 96%  
40 46% 85% Median
41 25% 38%  
42 9% 13%  
43 4% 4%  
44 0.6% 0.6%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Attīstībai–Par!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 0.5% 99.5%  
36 3% 99.0%  
37 9% 96%  
38 17% 88% Last Result
39 48% 71% Median
40 18% 23%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.2% 1.4%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai–Par!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 100%  
31 1.3% 99.8%  
32 8% 98.5%  
33 12% 90%  
34 32% 79% Median
35 32% 46%  
36 10% 14%  
37 3% 4%  
38 1.1% 1.3%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 2% 99.8%  
32 2% 97%  
33 10% 95%  
34 45% 85% Median
35 21% 40%  
36 17% 19%  
37 1.5% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations