Opinion Poll by FACTUM, 22–28 August 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” | 23.0% | 21.4% | 20.6–23.5% | 20.2–23.9% | 19.8–24.3% | 19.2–25.0% |
| KPV LV | 0.0% | 14.6% | 13.8–16.4% | 13.5–16.7% | 13.2–17.1% | 12.7–17.7% |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija | 0.7% | 12.6% | 11.9–14.3% | 11.6–14.6% | 11.3–14.9% | 10.8–15.5% |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” | 16.6% | 11.7% | 10.9–13.2% | 10.6–13.5% | 10.3–13.8% | 9.8–14.4% |
| Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 19.5% | 10.7% | 10.0–12.2% | 9.7–12.5% | 9.4–12.8% | 8.9–13.4% |
| Attīstībai–Par! | 0.9% | 10.7% | 10.0–12.2% | 9.7–12.5% | 9.4–12.8% | 8.9–13.4% |
| Vienotība | 21.9% | 6.8% | 6.2–8.0% | 6.0–8.3% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.4–9.0% |
| Latvijas Krievu savienība | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.0–4.4% |
| Progresīvie | 0.0% | 2.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Latvijas Reģionu apvienība | 6.7% | 1.9% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.2–3.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” | 24 | 27 | 26–28 | 25–29 | 25–29 | 24–31 |
| KPV LV | 0 | 18 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 16–21 | 15–22 |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija | 0 | 16 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 14–19 | 13–19 |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” | 17 | 15 | 14–16 | 13–18 | 12–18 | 12–18 |
| Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 21 | 15 | 14–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 11–18 |
| Attīstībai–Par! | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vienotība | 23 | 8 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| Latvijas Krievu savienība | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Progresīvie | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Latvijas Reģionu apvienība | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa”
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 25 | 8% | 99.1% | |
| 26 | 23% | 91% | |
| 27 | 33% | 69% | Median |
| 28 | 28% | 36% | |
| 29 | 6% | 8% | |
| 30 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
KPV LV
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KPV LV page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 6% | 98% | |
| 17 | 9% | 92% | |
| 18 | 48% | 83% | Median |
| 19 | 15% | 35% | |
| 20 | 13% | 21% | |
| 21 | 6% | 8% | |
| 22 | 2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā konservatīvā partija page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 15 | 21% | 97% | |
| 16 | 55% | 76% | Median |
| 17 | 13% | 21% | |
| 18 | 5% | 8% | |
| 19 | 3% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK”
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 4% | 97% | |
| 14 | 13% | 93% | |
| 15 | 58% | 80% | Median |
| 16 | 13% | 22% | |
| 17 | 4% | 10% | Last Result |
| 18 | 5% | 5% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 13 | 6% | 98% | |
| 14 | 8% | 92% | |
| 15 | 73% | 84% | Median |
| 16 | 8% | 11% | |
| 17 | 2% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Attīstībai–Par!
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Attīstībai–Par! page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Vienotība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vienotība page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 54% | 91% | Median |
| 9 | 12% | 38% | |
| 10 | 25% | 26% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Latvijas Krievu savienība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Krievu savienība page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Reģionu apvienība page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība | 61 | 54 | 99.3% | 53–56 | 52–57 | 52–57 | 50–58 |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība | 61 | 54 | 99.3% | 53–56 | 52–57 | 52–57 | 50–58 |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 38 | 46 | 0.2% | 44–48 | 44–49 | 43–49 | 42–50 |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 38 | 46 | 0.2% | 44–48 | 44–49 | 43–49 | 42–50 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Attīstībai–Par! | 24 | 43 | 0% | 41–45 | 41–46 | 40–46 | 40–47 |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība | 40 | 40 | 0% | 38–41 | 38–42 | 37–43 | 36–44 |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība | 61 | 38 | 0% | 37–40 | 36–41 | 36–41 | 34–43 |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība | 61 | 38 | 0% | 37–40 | 36–41 | 36–41 | 34–43 |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 38 | 30 | 0% | 28–32 | 28–33 | 27–33 | 26–34 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai–Par! | 24 | 27 | 0% | 26–28 | 25–29 | 25–29 | 24–31 |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 1.5% | 99.3% | Majority |
| 52 | 3% | 98% | |
| 53 | 9% | 95% | |
| 54 | 40% | 86% | Median |
| 55 | 26% | 46% | |
| 56 | 12% | 20% | |
| 57 | 6% | 8% | |
| 58 | 2% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 1.5% | 99.3% | Majority |
| 52 | 3% | 98% | |
| 53 | 9% | 95% | |
| 54 | 40% | 86% | Median |
| 55 | 26% | 46% | |
| 56 | 12% | 20% | |
| 57 | 6% | 8% | |
| 58 | 2% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 43 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 44 | 8% | 96% | |
| 45 | 23% | 88% | |
| 46 | 36% | 65% | Median |
| 47 | 13% | 29% | |
| 48 | 8% | 15% | |
| 49 | 6% | 7% | |
| 50 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 43 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 44 | 8% | 96% | |
| 45 | 23% | 88% | |
| 46 | 36% | 65% | Median |
| 47 | 13% | 29% | |
| 48 | 8% | 15% | |
| 49 | 6% | 7% | |
| 50 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Attīstībai–Par!
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 40 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 41 | 8% | 97% | |
| 42 | 26% | 89% | |
| 43 | 24% | 64% | Median |
| 44 | 27% | 39% | |
| 45 | 5% | 12% | |
| 46 | 6% | 7% | |
| 47 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 38 | 9% | 96% | |
| 39 | 36% | 87% | Median |
| 40 | 29% | 51% | Last Result |
| 41 | 13% | 22% | |
| 42 | 7% | 9% | |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 1.5% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 4% | 98% | |
| 37 | 8% | 94% | |
| 38 | 44% | 85% | Median |
| 39 | 20% | 41% | |
| 40 | 13% | 21% | |
| 41 | 6% | 8% | |
| 42 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 1.5% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 4% | 98% | |
| 37 | 8% | 94% | |
| 38 | 44% | 85% | Median |
| 39 | 20% | 41% | |
| 40 | 13% | 21% | |
| 41 | 6% | 8% | |
| 42 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 28 | 7% | 96% | |
| 29 | 17% | 89% | |
| 30 | 50% | 72% | Median |
| 31 | 12% | 22% | |
| 32 | 5% | 10% | |
| 33 | 5% | 5% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai–Par!
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 25 | 8% | 99.1% | |
| 26 | 23% | 91% | |
| 27 | 33% | 69% | Median |
| 28 | 28% | 36% | |
| 29 | 6% | 8% | |
| 30 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: FACTUM
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 22–28 August 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1337
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.98%