Opinion Poll by Spinter tyrimai for Delfi, 18–28 June 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0.0% | 21.3% | 19.7–23.0% | 19.3–23.5% | 18.9–24.0% | 18.2–24.8% |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0.0% | 15.6% | 14.2–17.1% | 13.8–17.6% | 13.5–18.0% | 12.8–18.7% |
| Nemuno aušra (*) | 0.0% | 13.4% | 12.1–14.9% | 11.8–15.3% | 11.5–15.7% | 10.9–16.4% |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0.0% | 9.1% | 8.0–10.3% | 7.7–10.7% | 7.5–11.0% | 7.0–11.6% |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 8.9% | 7.8–10.1% | 7.5–10.5% | 7.3–10.8% | 6.8–11.4% |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0.0% | 8.8% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.4–10.4% | 7.2–10.7% | 6.7–11.3% |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Darbo Partija (NI) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 2.0–4.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Nemuno aušra (*) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Darbo Partija (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 82% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 18% | 18% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 95% | 95% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Nemuno aušra (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 62% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 38% | 38% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Laisvės partija (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 91% | 91% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Darbo Partija (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Darbo Partija (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 95% | 95% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Darbo Partija (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Spinter tyrimai
- Commissioner(s): Delfi
- Fieldwork period: 18–28 June 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1013
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.31%