Nemuno aušra (*)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 17.1% | 12.5–21.4% | 12.0–22.1% | 11.6–22.6% | 10.8–23.6% |
| 18–29 January 2025 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
13.0% | 11.7–14.4% | 11.4–14.8% | 11.1–15.2% | 10.5–15.9% |
| 13–20 December 2024 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
17.9% | 16.4–19.5% | 16.0–20.0% | 15.7–20.4% | 15.0–21.2% |
| 12 November–1 December 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai | 17.1% | 15.7–18.7% | 15.2–19.1% | 14.9–19.5% | 14.2–20.3% |
| 7–16 November 2024 | Vilmorus | 20.7% | 19.1–22.4% | 18.7–22.9% | 18.3–23.3% | 17.6–24.2% |
| 30 October–12 November 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai | 20.3% | 18.7–22.0% | 18.3–22.5% | 17.9–22.9% | 17.2–23.7% |
| 16–25 September 2024 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
16.0% | 14.6–17.5% | 14.2–18.0% | 13.8–18.4% | 13.2–19.1% |
| 13–21 September 2024 | Vilmorus | 16.7% | 15.0–18.7% | 14.6–19.2% | 14.1–19.7% | 13.4–20.7% |
| 6–20 September 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai | 11.5% | 10.3–13.0% | 9.9–13.4% | 9.6–13.8% | 9.0–14.5% |
| 7–9 August 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai Delfi |
11.1% | 10.0–12.5% | 9.6–12.9% | 9.3–13.2% | 8.8–13.9% |
| 19–29 July 2024 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
17.0% | 15.5–18.6% | 15.1–19.0% | 14.8–19.4% | 14.1–20.2% |
| 11–21 July 2024 | Vilmorus | 9.9% | 8.8–11.2% | 8.5–11.6% | 8.2–11.9% | 7.7–12.6% |
| 21 June–7 July 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai LRT |
9.8% | 8.6–11.0% | 8.3–11.4% | 8.1–11.8% | 7.6–12.4% |
| 18–28 June 2024 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
13.4% | 12.1–14.9% | 11.8–15.3% | 11.5–15.7% | 10.9–16.4% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Nemuno aušra (*).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 8% | 98% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 12% | 89% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 8% | 77% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 5% | 69% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 8% | 64% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 17.5–18.5% | 9% | 45% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 8% | 36% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 10% | 28% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 10% | 19% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 6% | 9% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 2% | 3% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| 18–29 January 2025 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 13–20 December 2024 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 |
| 12 November–1 December 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 7–16 November 2024 | Vilmorus | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 30 October–12 November 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 16–25 September 2024 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 13–21 September 2024 | Vilmorus | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 6–20 September 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 7–9 August 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai Delfi |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 19–29 July 2024 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 11–21 July 2024 | Vilmorus | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 21 June–7 July 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai LRT |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 18–28 June 2024 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Nemuno aušra (*).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 15% | 100% | |
| 2 | 54% | 85% | Median |
| 3 | 31% | 31% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |