Opinion Poll by Vilmorus, 11–21 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0.0% 26.4% 24.7–28.2% 24.2–28.8% 23.8–29.2% 23.0–30.1%
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0.0% 15.7% 14.3–17.3% 13.9–17.7% 13.6–18.1% 12.9–18.9%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0.0% 13.8% 12.5–15.3% 12.1–15.7% 11.8–16.1% 11.2–16.8%
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 10.2% 9.1–11.5% 8.7–11.9% 8.5–12.2% 8.0–12.9%
Nemuno aušra (*) 0.0% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.6%
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0.0% 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.2–9.4%
Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) 0.0% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Darbo Partija (NI) 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
Laisvės partija (RE) 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Nemuno aušra (*) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Laisvės partija (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 84% 100% Median
4 16% 16%  
5 0% 0%  

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.3% 100%  
2 98% 98.7% Median
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 12% 100%  
2 88% 88% Median
3 0% 0%  

Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 90% 100% Median
2 10% 10%  
3 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 95% 100% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 99.8% 99.8% Median
2 0% 0%  

Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 52% 100% Last Result, Median
1 48% 48%  
2 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Last Result, Median
1 19% 19%  
2 0% 0%  

Laisvės partija (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 15% 15%  
2 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 1–2
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 37% 100% Median
4 61% 63%  
5 1.2% 1.2%  
6 0% 0% Majority

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.3% 100%  
2 98% 98.7% Median
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 12% 100%  
2 88% 88% Median
3 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Last Result, Median
1 19% 19%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations