Opinion Poll by Spinter tyrimai for Delfi, 19–29 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0.0% 21.5% 20.0–23.3% 19.5–23.8% 19.1–24.2% 18.4–25.0%
Nemuno aušra (*) 0.0% 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.1–19.0% 14.8–19.4% 14.1–20.2%
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0.0% 16.8% 15.3–18.4% 14.9–18.8% 14.6–19.2% 13.9–20.0%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0.0% 13.3% 12.0–14.8% 11.7–15.2% 11.3–15.5% 10.8–16.3%
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.8% 10.6–13.2% 10.3–13.6% 10.0–14.0% 9.4–14.7%
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0.0% 10.7% 9.6–12.1% 9.2–12.5% 9.0–12.8% 8.4–13.5%
Laisvės partija (RE) 0.0% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.2–6.6% 4.0–6.8% 3.7–7.3%
Darbo Partija (NI) 0.0% 3.5% 2.8–4.3% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Nemuno aušra (*) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Laisvės partija (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 51% 100% Median
3 49% 49%  
4 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 99.6% 99.9% Median
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 99.7% 99.8% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 31% 100%  
2 69% 69% Median
3 0% 0%  

Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 86% 100% Median
2 14% 14%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 100% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Laisvės partija (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100% Last Result
1 64% 64% Median
2 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 0.9%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 99.7% 99.8% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 0.9%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations