Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for ELTA, 5–19 April 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0.0% | 20.0% | 18.5–21.7% | 18.0–22.2% | 17.6–22.6% | 16.9–23.4% |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 16.6% | 15.1–18.1% | 14.7–18.6% | 14.4–19.0% | 13.7–19.8% |
| Nemuno aušra (S&D) | 0.0% | 13.8% | 12.5–15.3% | 12.1–15.7% | 11.8–16.1% | 11.2–16.8% |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0.0% | 13.8% | 12.5–15.3% | 12.1–15.7% | 11.8–16.1% | 11.2–16.8% |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0.0% | 12.1% | 10.9–13.5% | 10.5–13.9% | 10.2–14.3% | 9.7–15.0% |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0.0% | 6.9% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.7–8.4% | 5.5–8.6% | 5.1–9.2% |
| Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.7–5.4% | 3.5–5.7% | 3.3–5.9% | 3.0–6.4% |
| Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.5–4.0% | 2.4–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 2.0–4.8% |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.8–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Nemuno aušra (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 75% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 25% | 25% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.3% | 99.5% | Median |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Nemuno aušra (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 20% | 100% | |
| 2 | 80% | 80% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 23% | 100% | |
| 2 | 77% | 77% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 79% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 21% | 21% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.6% | 99.6% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 86% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 14% | 14% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Laisvės partija (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Nemuno aušra (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Nemuno aušra (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 12% | 100% | |
| 4 | 71% | 88% | Median |
| 5 | 17% | 17% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 66% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 32% | 34% | |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 23% | 100% | |
| 2 | 77% | 77% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Baltijos tyrimai
- Commissioner(s): ELTA
- Fieldwork period: 5–19 April 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1015
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.92%