Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for ELTA, 21 August–2 September 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0.0% | 21.9% | 20.3–23.6% | 19.8–24.1% | 19.4–24.5% | 18.7–25.4% |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0.0% | 15.3% | 13.9–16.9% | 13.5–17.3% | 13.2–17.7% | 12.6–18.4% |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0.0% | 12.8% | 11.6–14.3% | 11.2–14.7% | 10.9–15.0% | 10.3–15.8% |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.2% | 11.0–13.6% | 10.6–14.1% | 10.3–14.4% | 9.8–15.1% |
| Nemuno aušra (S&D) | 0.0% | 11.7% | 10.5–13.1% | 10.2–13.5% | 9.9–13.9% | 9.3–14.6% |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0.0% | 9.5% | 8.4–10.8% | 8.1–11.2% | 7.9–11.5% | 7.4–12.2% |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.7–5.4% | 3.5–5.7% | 3.4–5.9% | 3.0–6.4% |
| Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.8% |
| Darbo Partija (NI) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.0–4.6% | 2.8–4.8% | 2.7–5.0% | 2.4–5.5% |
| Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.1–3.9% | 2.0–4.1% | 1.8–4.5% |
| Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Nemuno aušra (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Darbo Partija (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 9% | 100% | |
| 3 | 91% | 91% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.7% | 99.7% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 16% | 100% | |
| 2 | 84% | 84% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 45% | 100% | |
| 2 | 55% | 55% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Nemuno aušra (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 61% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 39% | 39% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.1% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Laisvės partija (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 80% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 20% | 20% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 7% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Darbo Partija (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Nemuno aušra (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Darbo Partija (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Nemuno aušra (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 5% | 100% | |
| 4 | 60% | 95% | Median |
| 5 | 35% | 35% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 15% | 100% | |
| 2 | 78% | 85% | Median |
| 3 | 6% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.7% | 99.7% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Darbo Partija (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Baltijos tyrimai
- Commissioner(s): ELTA
- Fieldwork period: 21 August–2 September 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1006
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.45%