Opinion Poll by Spinter tyrimai for Delfi, 17–27 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0.0% 21.7% 20.1–23.5% 19.7–23.9% 19.3–24.4% 18.6–25.2%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0.0% 15.7% 14.3–17.3% 14.0–17.7% 13.6–18.1% 13.0–18.9%
Nemuno aušra (S&D) 0.0% 12.7% 11.4–14.1% 11.1–14.5% 10.8–14.9% 10.2–15.6%
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 10.6% 9.5–12.0% 9.1–12.3% 8.9–12.7% 8.4–13.3%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0.0% 10.3% 9.2–11.6% 8.9–12.0% 8.6–12.4% 8.1–13.0%
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0.0% 9.7% 8.6–11.0% 8.3–11.4% 8.1–11.7% 7.6–12.4%
Laisvės partija (RE) 0.0% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) 0.0% 3.1% 2.5–4.0% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 2.0–4.8%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.6% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Nemuno aušra (S&D) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Laisvės partija (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 30% 100%  
3 70% 70% Median
4 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.9% 100%  
2 99.1% 99.1% Median
3 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 48% 100%  
2 52% 52% Median
3 0% 0%  

Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 95% 100% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 97% 100% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98.8% 100% Median
2 1.2% 1.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Laisvės partija (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100% Last Result
1 70% 70% Median
2 0% 0%  

Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 1 0% 1 1 1–2 1–2

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 30% 100%  
3 70% 70% Median
4 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 97% 100% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations