Opinion Poll by Spinter tyrimai for Delfi, 19–29 January 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0.0% | 20.4% | 18.8–22.1% | 18.4–22.5% | 18.0–22.9% | 17.3–23.8% |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0.0% | 11.6% | 10.4–13.0% | 10.1–13.4% | 9.8–13.7% | 9.2–14.4% |
| Nemuno aušra (S&D) | 0.0% | 11.5% | 10.3–12.9% | 10.0–13.3% | 9.7–13.6% | 9.1–14.3% |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0.0% | 11.2% | 10.0–12.6% | 9.7–13.0% | 9.4–13.3% | 8.9–14.0% |
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0.0% | 11.2% | 10.0–12.6% | 9.7–13.0% | 9.4–13.3% | 8.9–14.0% |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 10.9% | 9.7–12.3% | 9.4–12.7% | 9.1–13.0% | 8.6–13.7% |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0.0% | 6.6% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.2–8.3% | 4.8–8.9% |
| Darbo Partija (NI) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.4–4.6% | 2.1–5.1% |
| Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.1% | 2.5–4.3% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.1–5.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Nemuno aušra (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Darbo Partija (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 54% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 46% | 46% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 66% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 34% | 34% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Nemuno aušra (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 64% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 36% | 36% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 74% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 26% | 26% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 72% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 28% | 28% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 73% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 27% | 27% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Laisvės partija (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Darbo Partija (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.2% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Darbo Partija (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 54% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 46% | 46% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Darbo Partija (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.2% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Spinter tyrimai
- Commissioner(s): Delfi
- Fieldwork period: 19–29 January 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1017
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.96%