Opinion Poll by Spinter tyrimai for Delfi, 18–28 February 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0.0% | 21.9% | 19.9–24.1% | 19.3–24.7% | 18.8–25.3% | 17.9–26.4% |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0.0% | 13.3% | 11.7–15.2% | 11.3–15.7% | 10.9–16.2% | 10.2–17.1% |
| Nemuno aušra (PfE) | 0.0% | 11.6% | 10.1–13.4% | 9.6–13.9% | 9.3–14.3% | 8.6–15.2% |
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0.0% | 11.4% | 9.9–13.2% | 9.5–13.7% | 9.2–14.1% | 8.5–15.0% |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0.0% | 9.7% | 8.3–11.3% | 7.9–11.8% | 7.6–12.2% | 7.0–13.1% |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 6.8% | 5.7–8.3% | 5.4–8.7% | 5.1–9.1% | 4.6–9.8% |
| Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) | 0.0% | 5.7% | 4.7–7.1% | 4.4–7.5% | 4.1–7.8% | 3.7–8.5% |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.5% | 2.7–5.8% | 2.3–6.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Nemuno aušra (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 54% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 46% | 46% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 47% | 100% | |
| 2 | 53% | 53% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Nemuno aušra (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 89% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 11% | 11% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 90% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 10% | 10% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.2% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 78% | 78% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Laisvės partija (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 11% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Nemuno aušra (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 54% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 46% | 46% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Nemuno aušra (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 89% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 11% | 11% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Spinter tyrimai
- Commissioner(s): Delfi
- Fieldwork period: 18–28 February 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 631
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.14%