Opinion Poll by Spinter tyrimai for Delfi, 18–28 March 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0.0% | 23.3% | 21.3–25.5% | 20.7–26.2% | 20.2–26.7% | 19.3–27.8% |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0.0% | 13.6% | 12.0–15.4% | 11.5–15.9% | 11.2–16.4% | 10.4–17.3% |
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0.0% | 13.6% | 12.0–15.4% | 11.5–15.9% | 11.2–16.4% | 10.4–17.3% |
| Nemuno aušra (PfE) | 0.0% | 9.1% | 7.8–10.7% | 7.5–11.2% | 7.2–11.6% | 6.6–12.4% |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0.0% | 8.5% | 7.3–10.1% | 6.9–10.5% | 6.6–10.9% | 6.1–11.7% |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 7.5% | 6.3–8.9% | 6.0–9.4% | 5.7–9.7% | 5.2–10.5% |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0.0% | 5.3% | 4.4–6.6% | 4.1–7.0% | 3.9–7.3% | 3.4–8.0% |
| Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) | 0.0% | 4.7% | 3.8–6.0% | 3.6–6.3% | 3.4–6.6% | 3.0–7.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Nemuno aušra (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 37% | 100% | |
| 3 | 63% | 63% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 56% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 44% | 44% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 58% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 42% | 42% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Nemuno aušra (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.9% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98.8% | 98.8% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Laisvės partija (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 44% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 56% | 56% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 68% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 32% | 32% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Nemuno aušra (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 37% | 100% | |
| 3 | 63% | 63% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Nemuno aušra (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Spinter tyrimai
- Commissioner(s): Delfi
- Fieldwork period: 18–28 March 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 656
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.72%