Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for ELTA, 23 April–7 May 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0.0% | 18.1% | 16.4–20.1% | 15.9–20.7% | 15.4–21.2% | 14.6–22.2% |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0.0% | 16.7% | 15.0–18.6% | 14.5–19.2% | 14.1–19.6% | 13.3–20.6% |
| Nemuno aušra (PfE) | 0.0% | 16.5% | 14.8–18.5% | 14.3–19.0% | 13.9–19.5% | 13.1–20.5% |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0.0% | 14.3% | 12.7–16.2% | 12.3–16.7% | 11.9–17.2% | 11.2–18.1% |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0.0% | 11.4% | 10.0–13.1% | 9.6–13.6% | 9.2–14.0% | 8.6–14.9% |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 5.1% | 4.2–6.4% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.7–7.0% | 3.3–7.7% |
| Darbo Partija (NI) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.1–6.2% | 3.8–6.6% | 3.6–6.9% | 3.2–7.5% |
| Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.4–4.1% | 2.2–4.4% | 2.0–4.6% | 1.7–5.2% |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.5% | 1.6–5.0% |
| Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.5% | 1.6–5.0% |
| Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.1% | 1.8–4.3% | 1.5–4.8% |
| Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.6–2.3% | 0.5–2.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Nemuno aušra (PfE) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Darbo Partija (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 67% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 33% | 33% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 88% | 99.7% | Median |
| 3 | 11% | 11% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Nemuno aušra (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 85% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 15% | 15% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.0% | 99.1% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 72% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 28% | 28% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 54% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 46% | 46% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Darbo Partija (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 33% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 67% | 67% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Laisvės partija (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Nemuno aušra (PfE) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
| Darbo Partija (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 67% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 33% | 33% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Nemuno aušra (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 85% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 15% | 15% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 88% | 99.7% | Median |
| 3 | 11% | 11% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.0% | 99.2% | Median |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Darbo Partija (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 33% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 67% | 67% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Baltijos tyrimai
- Commissioner(s): ELTA
- Fieldwork period: 23 April–7 May 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 684
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.17%