Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for ELTA, 21–31 May 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0.0% 17.8% 16.1–19.7% 15.6–20.3% 15.2–20.7% 14.4–21.7%
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0.0% 16.8% 15.2–18.7% 14.7–19.3% 14.3–19.7% 13.5–20.7%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0.0% 14.4% 12.8–16.2% 12.4–16.7% 12.0–17.1% 11.3–18.0%
Nemuno aušra (PfE) 0.0% 12.4% 10.9–14.1% 10.5–14.5% 10.2–15.0% 9.5–15.8%
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0.0% 10.5% 9.1–12.0% 8.8–12.5% 8.4–12.9% 7.8–13.7%
Darbo Partija (NI) 0.0% 6.7% 5.6–8.0% 5.3–8.4% 5.1–8.7% 4.6–9.4%
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.2% 4.3–6.4% 4.0–6.7% 3.8–7.0% 3.4–7.6%
Laisvės partija (RE) 0.0% 4.1% 3.3–5.2% 3.0–5.5% 2.9–5.8% 2.5–6.3%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0.0% 3.9% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.3% 2.8–5.6% 2.4–6.2%
Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) 0.0% 3.0% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 2.0–4.5% 1.7–5.0%
Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.6–3.8% 1.3–4.3%
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) 0.0% 2.3% 1.7–3.2% 1.6–3.4% 1.4–3.7% 1.2–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Nemuno aušra (PfE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Laisvės partija (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 75% 100% Median
3 25% 25%  
4 0% 0%  

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 89% 100% Median
3 11% 11%  
4 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 97% 97% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 17% 100%  
2 83% 83% Median
3 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 71% 100% Median
2 29% 29%  
3 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 91% 91% Median
2 0% 0%  

Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100% Last Result
1 50% 50% Median
2 0% 0%  

Laisvės partija (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 10%  
2 0% 0%  

Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 2 0% 2 2–3 2–3 1–3
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Nemuno aušra (PfE) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 1 0% 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.2% 100%  
2 90% 98.8% Median
3 9% 9%  
4 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 75% 100% Median
3 25% 25%  
4 0% 0%  

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 89% 100% Median
3 11% 11%  
4 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 17% 100%  
2 83% 83% Median
3 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 91% 91% Median
2 0% 0%  

Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations