Opinion Poll by Ilres for Luxemburger Wort and RTL, 8–24 April 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP) | 0.0% | 29.1% | 27.8–30.5% | 27.4–30.9% | 27.1–31.2% | 26.4–31.9% |
| Demokratesch Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 21.0% | 19.8–22.3% | 19.5–22.6% | 19.2–22.9% | 18.7–23.5% |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D) | 0.0% | 17.9% | 16.8–19.1% | 16.5–19.4% | 16.2–19.7% | 15.7–20.3% |
| déi gréng (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 10.5% | 9.6–11.4% | 9.4–11.7% | 9.2–12.0% | 8.7–12.5% |
| Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR) | 0.0% | 9.3% | 8.5–10.2% | 8.2–10.5% | 8.0–10.7% | 7.7–11.2% |
| déi Lénk (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.8% | 4.2–5.5% | 4.0–5.7% | 3.9–5.9% | 3.6–6.2% |
| Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 3.0–4.1% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.7–4.4% | 2.5–4.7% |
| Fokus (*) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.5–2.4% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.2–2.9% |
| Liberté – Fräiheet! (*) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.6% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% |
| Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.9% |
| Déi Konservativ (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.9% |
| Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Demokratesch Partei (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| déi gréng (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| déi Lénk (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fokus (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Liberté – Fräiheet! (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Déi Konservativ (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 77% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 23% | 23% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Demokratesch Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratesch Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 47% | 100% | |
| 2 | 53% | 53% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.8% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
déi gréng (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi gréng (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 82% | 82% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 57% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 43% | 43% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
déi Lénk (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi Lénk (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Fokus (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fokus (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Liberté – Fräiheet! (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberté – Fräiheet! (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Déi Konservativ (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Déi Konservativ (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Demokratesch Partei (RE) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| déi gréng (Greens/EFA) – Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) – Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| déi Lénk (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 77% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 23% | 23% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Demokratesch Partei (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 47% | 100% | |
| 2 | 53% | 53% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.8% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 57% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 43% | 43% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
déi gréng (Greens/EFA) – Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) – Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 82% | 82% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
déi Lénk (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ilres
- Commissioner(s): Luxemburger Wort and RTL
- Fieldwork period: 8–24 April 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1842
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.71%