Poll Average
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Summary
The table below lists the polls on which the average is based. They are the most recent polls (less than 30 days old) registered and analyzed so far.
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | CSV | DG | DP | LSAP | ADR | DL | PPLU | PID | KPL | DK | DEM | VOLT | FOKUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 May 2019 | General Election | 37.6% 3 |
15.0% 1 |
14.8% 1 |
11.8% 1 |
7.5% 0 |
5.8% 0 |
4.2% 0 |
1.8% 0 |
1.5% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
| N/A | Poll Average | 26–30% 2–3 |
9–12% 0–1 |
16–19% 1–2 |
18–22% 1–2 |
6–8% 0 |
4–6% 0 |
8–11% 0–1 |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
0% 0 |
0% 0 |
0% 0 |
1–2% 0 |
| 7–16 August 2023 | Ilres Luxemburger Wort and RTL |
26–30% 2–3 |
9–12% 0–1 |
16–19% 1–2 |
18–22% 1–2 |
6–8% 0 |
4–6% 0 |
8–11% 0–1 |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
0% 0 |
0% 0 |
0% 0 |
1–2% 0 |
| 26 May 2019 | General Election | 37.6% 3 |
15.0% 1 |
14.8% 1 |
11.8% 1 |
7.5% 0 |
5.8% 0 |
4.2% 0 |
1.8% 0 |
1.5% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
Only polls for which at least the sample size has been published are included in the table above.
Legend:
- Top half of each row: Voting intentions (95% confidence interval)
- Bottom half of each row: Seat projections for the European Parliament (95% confidence interval)
- CSV: Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP)
- DG: déi gréng (Greens/EFA)
- DP: Demokratesch Partei (RE)
- LSAP: Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D)
- ADR: Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR)
- DL: déi Lénk (GUE/NGL)
- PPLU: Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA)
- PID: Partei fir Integral Demokratie (*)
- KPL: Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*)
- DK: Déi Konservativ (*)
- DEM: Demokratie (*)
- VOLT: Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA)
- FOKUS: Fokus (*)
- N/A (single party): Party not included the published results
- N/A (entire row): Calculation for this opinion poll not started yet
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP) | 37.6% | 28.3% | 27.0–29.7% | 26.6–30.0% | 26.3–30.4% | 25.7–31.0% |
| déi gréng (Greens/EFA) | 15.0% | 10.7% | 9.8–11.7% | 9.6–11.9% | 9.4–12.2% | 9.0–12.7% |
| Demokratesch Partei (RE) | 14.8% | 17.4% | 16.3–18.5% | 16.0–18.9% | 15.7–19.2% | 15.2–19.7% |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D) | 11.8% | 19.8% | 18.7–21.0% | 18.4–21.4% | 18.1–21.7% | 17.6–22.3% |
| Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR) | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.2–7.7% | 6.0–7.9% | 5.8–8.1% | 5.5–8.5% |
| déi Lénk (GUE/NGL) | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.4–5.7% | 4.2–5.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.8–6.4% |
| Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) | 4.2% | 9.6% | 8.8–10.5% | 8.5–10.8% | 8.3–11.0% | 8.0–11.5% |
| Partei fir Integral Demokratie (*) | 1.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*) | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–1.0% |
| Déi Konservativ (*) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1–0.3% | 0.0–0.3% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% |
| Demokratie (*) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0–0.1% | 0.0–0.2% | 0.0–0.2% | 0.0–0.3% |
| Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0–0.1% | 0.0–0.2% | 0.0–0.2% | 0.0–0.3% |
| Fokus (*) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.5% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.9% |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23.5–24.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 19% | 96% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 36% | 77% | Median |
| 28.5–29.5% | 29% | 41% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 10% | 12% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 31.5–32.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32.5–33.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 33.5–34.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 34.5–35.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 35.5–36.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 36.5–37.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 37.5–38.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
déi gréng (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi gréng (Greens/EFA) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5–8.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 35% | 96% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 47% | 60% | Median |
| 11.5–12.5% | 12% | 13% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Demokratesch Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratesch Partei (RE) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 1.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 15.5–16.5% | 15% | 98.6% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 40% | 84% | Median |
| 17.5–18.5% | 34% | 44% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 9% | 10% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 0% |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 7% | 99.5% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 30% | 92% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 40% | 62% | Median |
| 20.5–21.5% | 19% | 22% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 3% | 3% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0% | 0% |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 26% | 99.4% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 59% | 74% | Median |
| 7.5–8.5% | 14% | 15% | Last Result |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 0% |
déi Lénk (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi Lénk (GUE/NGL) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5–3.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 17% | 99.9% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 67% | 83% | Median |
| 5.5–6.5% | 15% | 15% | Last Result |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 0% |
Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 41% | 95% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 45% | 54% | Median |
| 10.5–11.5% | 9% | 9% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 0% |
Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 71% | 100% | Median |
| 0.5–1.5% | 29% | 29% | Last Result |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 0% |
Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 0% |
Déi Konservativ (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Déi Konservativ (*) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 0% |
Demokratie (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratie (*) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 0% |
Fokus (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fokus (*) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 93% | 99.9% | Median |
| 1.5–2.5% | 7% | 7% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP) | 3 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| déi gréng (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Demokratesch Partei (RE) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D) | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| déi Lénk (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei fir Integral Demokratie (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Déi Konservativ (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demokratie (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fokus (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 75% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 25% | 25% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
déi gréng (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi gréng (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 100% | |
| 1 | 89% | 89% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratesch Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratesch Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 3% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 47% | 47% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
déi Lénk (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi Lénk (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 64% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 36% | 36% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei fir Integral Demokratie (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei fir Integral Demokratie (*) page.
Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Déi Konservativ (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Déi Konservativ (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Demokratie (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratie (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Fokus (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fokus (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP) | 3 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Demokratesch Partei (RE) | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D) | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| déi gréng (Greens/EFA) – Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) – Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partei fir Integral Demokratie () – Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg () – Demokratie () – Déi Konservativ () – Fokus (*) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| déi Lénk (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 75% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 25% | 25% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Demokratesch Partei (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 3% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 47% | 47% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
déi gréng (Greens/EFA) – Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) – Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 67% | 96% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 29% | 29% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partei fir Integral Demokratie () – Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg () – Demokratie () – Déi Konservativ () – Fokus (*)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
déi Lénk (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
- Number of polls included in this average: 1
- Lowest number of simulations done in a poll included in this average: 2,097,152
- Total number of simulations done in the polls included in this average: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.87%