Poll Average
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Summary
The table below lists the polls on which the average is based. They are the most recent polls (less than 90 days old) registered and analyzed so far.
Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | DL | DG | PPLU | VOLT | LSAP | DP | CSV | ADR | DK | DEM | FOKUS | KPL | LF | PID |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9 June 2024 | General Election | 0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
N/A | Poll Average | 3–5% 0 |
9–12% 0–1 |
2–4% 0 |
0–1% 0 |
18–22% 1–2 |
17–21% 1–2 |
27–31% 2–3 |
9–12% 0–1 |
0% 0 |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0 |
0–1% 0 |
1–3% 0 |
N/A N/A |
23–30 September 2024 | Ilres Luxemburger Wort and RTL |
3–5% 0 |
9–12% 0–1 |
2–4% 0 |
0–1% 0 |
18–22% 1–2 |
17–21% 1–2 |
27–31% 2–3 |
9–12% 0–1 |
0–1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0 |
0–1% 0 |
1–3% 0 |
N/A N/A |
9 June 2024 | General Election | 0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
Only polls for which at least the sample size has been published are included in the table above.
Legend:
- Top half of each row: Voting intentions (95% confidence interval)
- Bottom half of each row: Seat projections for the European Parliament (95% confidence interval)
- DL: déi Lénk (GUE/NGL)
- DG: déi gréng (Greens/EFA)
- PPLU: Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA)
- VOLT: Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA)
- LSAP: Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D)
- DP: Demokratesch Partei (RE)
- CSV: Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP)
- ADR: Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR)
- DK: Déi Konservativ (*)
- DEM: Demokratie (*)
- FOKUS: Fokus (*)
- KPL: Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*)
- LF: Liberté – Fräiheet! (*)
- PID: Partei fir Integral Demokratie (*)
- N/A (single party): Party not included the published results
- N/A (entire row): Calculation for this opinion poll not started yet
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
déi Lénk (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.2–4.3% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.9–4.6% | 2.7–5.0% |
déi gréng (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 10.1% | 9.3–11.0% | 9.0–11.3% | 8.8–11.5% | 8.4–12.0% |
Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.7–3.8% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.5–4.1% | 2.3–4.4% |
Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D) | 0.0% | 20.0% | 18.8–21.2% | 18.5–21.5% | 18.2–21.8% | 17.7–22.4% |
Demokratesch Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 18.9% | 17.7–20.1% | 17.4–20.4% | 17.2–20.7% | 16.6–21.3% |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP) | 0.0% | 28.9% | 27.5–30.2% | 27.2–30.6% | 26.8–30.9% | 26.2–31.6% |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR) | 0.0% | 10.7% | 9.8–11.7% | 9.6–11.9% | 9.4–12.2% | 9.0–12.6% |
Déi Konservativ (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.7% |
Demokratie (*) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Fokus (*) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.4–2.2% | 1.3–2.3% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.6% |
Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.1% |
Liberté – Fräiheet! (*) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.4% | 1.5–2.5% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.2–2.9% |
Partei fir Integral Demokratie (*) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) page.
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0.0–0.5% | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
0.5–1.5% | 11% | 11% | |
1.5–2.5% | 0% | 0% |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D) page.
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | |
14.5–15.5% | 0% | 100% | |
15.5–16.5% | 0% | 100% | |
16.5–17.5% | 0.3% | 100% | |
17.5–18.5% | 5% | 99.7% | |
18.5–19.5% | 26% | 95% | |
19.5–20.5% | 41% | 69% | Median |
20.5–21.5% | 23% | 28% | |
21.5–22.5% | 5% | 5% | |
22.5–23.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
23.5–24.5% | 0% | 0% |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP) page.
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | |
14.5–15.5% | 0% | 100% | |
15.5–16.5% | 0% | 100% | |
16.5–17.5% | 0% | 100% | |
17.5–18.5% | 0% | 100% | |
18.5–19.5% | 0% | 100% | |
19.5–20.5% | 0% | 100% | |
20.5–21.5% | 0% | 100% | |
21.5–22.5% | 0% | 100% | |
22.5–23.5% | 0% | 100% | |
23.5–24.5% | 0% | 100% | |
24.5–25.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
25.5–26.5% | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
26.5–27.5% | 9% | 98.8% | |
27.5–28.5% | 28% | 90% | |
28.5–29.5% | 36% | 62% | Median |
29.5–30.5% | 20% | 26% | |
30.5–31.5% | 5% | 6% | |
31.5–32.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
32.5–33.5% | 0% | 0% |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR) page.
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
7.5–8.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
8.5–9.5% | 5% | 99.9% | |
9.5–10.5% | 36% | 95% | |
10.5–11.5% | 47% | 59% | Median |
11.5–12.5% | 12% | 12% | |
12.5–13.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
13.5–14.5% | 0% | 0% |
Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*) page.
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0.0–0.5% | 58% | 100% | Last Result |
0.5–1.5% | 42% | 42% | Median |
1.5–2.5% | 0% | 0% |
Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) page.
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
1.5–2.5% | 3% | 100% | |
2.5–3.5% | 74% | 97% | Median |
3.5–4.5% | 23% | 23% | |
4.5–5.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
5.5–6.5% | 0% | 0% |
déi Lénk (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi Lénk (GUE/NGL) page.
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
1.5–2.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
2.5–3.5% | 35% | 99.9% | |
3.5–4.5% | 62% | 65% | Median |
4.5–5.5% | 4% | 4% | |
5.5–6.5% | 0% | 0% |
Fokus (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fokus (*) page.
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
0.5–1.5% | 26% | 100% | |
1.5–2.5% | 73% | 74% | Median |
2.5–3.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
3.5–4.5% | 0% | 0% |
Liberté – Fräiheet! (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberté – Fräiheet! (*) page.
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
0.5–1.5% | 9% | 100% | |
1.5–2.5% | 87% | 91% | Median |
2.5–3.5% | 5% | 5% | |
3.5–4.5% | 0% | 0% |
Déi Konservativ (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Déi Konservativ (*) page.
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0.0–0.5% | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
0.5–1.5% | 2% | 2% | |
1.5–2.5% | 0% | 0% |
déi gréng (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi gréng (Greens/EFA) page.
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
7.5–8.5% | 0.9% | 100% | |
8.5–9.5% | 19% | 99.1% | |
9.5–10.5% | 52% | 80% | Median |
10.5–11.5% | 25% | 27% | |
11.5–12.5% | 2% | 2% | |
12.5–13.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
13.5–14.5% | 0% | 0% |
Demokratesch Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratesch Partei (RE) page.
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | |
14.5–15.5% | 0% | 100% | |
15.5–16.5% | 0.4% | 100% | |
16.5–17.5% | 6% | 99.6% | |
17.5–18.5% | 29% | 93% | |
18.5–19.5% | 41% | 64% | Median |
19.5–20.5% | 19% | 23% | |
20.5–21.5% | 3% | 4% | |
21.5–22.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
22.5–23.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
déi Lénk (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
déi gréng (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Demokratesch Partei (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Déi Konservativ (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Demokratie (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Fokus (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Liberté – Fräiheet! (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partei fir Integral Demokratie (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
déi Lénk (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi Lénk (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
déi gréng (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi gréng (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 46% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 54% | 54% | Median |
2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 82% | 100% | Median |
2 | 18% | 18% | |
3 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratesch Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratesch Partei (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 78% | 100% | Median |
2 | 22% | 22% | |
3 | 0% | 0% |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 69% | 100% | Median |
3 | 31% | 31% | |
4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 25% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 75% | 75% | Median |
2 | 0% | 0% |
Déi Konservativ (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Déi Konservativ (*) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Demokratie (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratie (*) page.
Fokus (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fokus (*) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Liberté – Fräiheet! (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberté – Fräiheet! (*) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partei fir Integral Demokratie (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei fir Integral Demokratie (*) page.
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
Demokratesch Partei (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) – Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) – déi gréng (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Demokratie () – Déi Konservativ () – Fokus () – Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg () – Liberté – Fräiheet! () – Partei fir Integral Demokratie () | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
déi Lénk (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 69% | 100% | Median |
3 | 31% | 31% | |
4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Demokratesch Partei (RE)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 78% | 100% | Median |
2 | 22% | 22% | |
3 | 0% | 0% |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 82% | 100% | Median |
2 | 18% | 18% | |
3 | 0% | 0% |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 25% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 75% | 75% | Median |
2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) – Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) – déi gréng (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 46% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 54% | 54% | Median |
2 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratie () – Déi Konservativ () – Fokus () – Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg () – Liberté – Fräiheet! () – Partei fir Integral Demokratie ()
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
déi Lénk (GUE/NGL)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
- Number of polls included in this average: 1
- Lowest number of simulations done in a poll included in this average: 2,097,152
- Total number of simulations done in the polls included in this average: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.11%