Opinion Poll by Ilres for Luxemburger Wort and RTL, 15–29 September 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP) | 0.0% | 25.3% | 24.0–26.7% | 23.7–27.0% | 23.4–27.4% | 22.8–28.0% |
| Demokratesch Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 19.7% | 18.6–21.0% | 18.2–21.3% | 18.0–21.6% | 17.4–22.2% |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D) | 0.0% | 18.7% | 17.5–19.9% | 17.2–20.2% | 17.0–20.5% | 16.4–21.1% |
| Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR) | 0.0% | 11.6% | 10.7–12.6% | 10.4–12.9% | 10.2–13.2% | 9.8–13.7% |
| déi gréng (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 9.3% | 8.5–10.2% | 8.3–10.5% | 8.1–10.7% | 7.7–11.2% |
| déi Lénk (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.3–6.7% | 5.1–6.9% | 4.9–7.1% | 4.6–7.5% |
| Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.8–5.1% | 3.7–5.3% | 3.5–5.4% | 3.3–5.8% |
| Liberté – Fräiheet! (*) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.5% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% |
| Fokus (*) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.6–2.4% | 1.5–2.5% | 1.4–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% |
| Déi Konservativ (*) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.1% |
| Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% |
| Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Demokratesch Partei (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| déi gréng (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| déi Lénk (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Liberté – Fräiheet! (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fokus (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Déi Konservativ (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.7% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Demokratesch Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratesch Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 32% | 100% | |
| 2 | 68% | 68% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 85% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 15% | 15% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
déi gréng (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi gréng (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 82% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 18% | 18% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
déi Lénk (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi Lénk (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Liberté – Fräiheet! (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberté – Fräiheet! (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Fokus (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fokus (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Déi Konservativ (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Déi Konservativ (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Demokratesch Partei (RE) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| déi gréng (Greens/EFA) – Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) – Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| déi Lénk (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.7% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Demokratesch Partei (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 32% | 100% | |
| 2 | 68% | 68% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 85% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 15% | 15% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
déi gréng (Greens/EFA) – Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) – Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 82% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 18% | 18% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
déi Lénk (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ilres
- Commissioner(s): Luxemburger Wort and RTL
- Fieldwork period: 15–29 September 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1825
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.74%