Opinion Poll by ILRES for Luxemburger Wort and RTL, 22 September–2 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.8% | 21.6–24.1% | 21.2–24.5% | 20.9–24.8% | 20.3–25.4% |
| Demokratesch Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 21.7% | 20.5–23.0% | 20.2–23.4% | 19.9–23.7% | 19.3–24.3% |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D) | 0.0% | 18.2% | 17.1–19.4% | 16.8–19.8% | 16.5–20.0% | 16.0–20.6% |
| Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR) | 0.0% | 12.8% | 11.8–13.9% | 11.6–14.1% | 11.3–14.4% | 10.9–14.9% |
| déi gréng (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 9.1–11.0% | 8.9–11.2% | 8.7–11.5% | 8.3–11.9% |
| déi Lénk (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 5.5% | 4.9–6.3% | 4.7–6.5% | 4.6–6.7% | 4.3–7.0% |
| Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 2.9–5.3% |
| Fokus (*) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% | 1.8–3.7% |
| Liberté – Fräiheet! (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.8% |
| Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% |
| Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.8% |
| Déi Konservativ (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Demokratesch Partei (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| déi gréng (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| déi Lénk (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fokus (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Liberté – Fräiheet! (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Déi Konservativ (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratesch Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratesch Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 53% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 47% | 47% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.7% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.5% | 99.5% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
déi gréng (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi gréng (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 45% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 55% | 55% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
déi Lénk (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi Lénk (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Fokus (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fokus (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Liberté – Fräiheet! (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberté – Fräiheet! (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Déi Konservativ (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Déi Konservativ (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Demokratesch Partei (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| déi gréng (Greens/EFA) – Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) – Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| déi Lénk (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratesch Partei (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 53% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 47% | 47% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.5% | 99.5% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.7% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
déi gréng (Greens/EFA) – Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA) – Volt Lëtzebuerg (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 45% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 55% | 55% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
déi Lénk (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: ILRES
- Commissioner(s): Luxemburger Wort and RTL
- Fieldwork period: 22 September–2 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1829
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.52%