Opinion Poll by Ifop for Tageblatt, 9–19 October 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei | 33.7% | 39.1% | 36.9–41.3% | 36.3–41.9% | 35.8–42.4% | 34.8–43.5% |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei | 20.3% | 15.0% | 13.5–16.7% | 13.1–17.2% | 12.7–17.6% | 12.0–18.4% |
| Demokratesch Partei | 18.2% | 13.1% | 11.7–14.7% | 11.3–15.1% | 10.9–15.5% | 10.3–16.3% |
| déi gréng | 10.1% | 13.1% | 11.7–14.7% | 11.3–15.1% | 10.9–15.5% | 10.3–16.3% |
| Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.6–9.7% | 6.3–10.0% | 5.8–10.7% |
| Déi Lénk | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.3% | 4.8–7.6% | 4.6–7.9% | 4.2–8.5% |
| Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.2–4.2% | 2.1–4.4% | 1.8–4.9% |
| Partei fir Integral Demokratie | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei | 23 | 28 | 25–29 | 25–30 | 25–30 | 24–31 |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei | 13 | 9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–12 |
| Demokratesch Partei | 13 | 9 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 6–11 |
| déi gréng | 6 | 8 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–11 |
| Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei | 3 | 4 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–6 | 2–7 |
| Déi Lénk | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Partei fir Integral Demokratie | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 11% | 99.3% | |
| 26 | 8% | 88% | |
| 27 | 16% | 80% | |
| 28 | 19% | 64% | Median |
| 29 | 38% | 45% | |
| 30 | 5% | 7% | |
| 31 | 1.4% | 2% | Majority |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 25% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 14% | 75% | |
| 9 | 46% | 61% | Median |
| 10 | 13% | 15% | |
| 11 | 2% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Demokratesch Partei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratesch Partei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 8 | 8% | 94% | |
| 9 | 72% | 86% | Median |
| 10 | 11% | 14% | |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
déi gréng
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi gréng page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 5% | 96% | |
| 8 | 86% | 91% | Median |
| 9 | 3% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 11 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 36% | 92% | Last Result |
| 4 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 5 | 39% | 44% | |
| 6 | 3% | 5% | |
| 7 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Déi Lénk
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Déi Lénk page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 59% | 99.7% | Last Result, Median |
| 3 | 39% | 40% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 75% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 22% | 25% | |
| 2 | 3% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei fir Integral Demokratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei fir Integral Demokratie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Demokratesch Partei | 36 | 37 | 100% | 35–38 | 34–39 | 34–39 | 33–40 |
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei | 36 | 36 | 100% | 34–38 | 34–38 | 33–39 | 33–40 |
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei | 23 | 28 | 2% | 25–29 | 25–30 | 25–30 | 24–31 |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei – Demokratesch Partei – déi gréng | 32 | 26 | 0% | 24–27 | 24–27 | 23–28 | 22–29 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Demokratesch Partei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 9% | 99.3% | |
| 35 | 12% | 91% | |
| 36 | 16% | 79% | Last Result |
| 37 | 22% | 63% | Median |
| 38 | 35% | 41% | |
| 39 | 6% | 7% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 33 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 10% | 96% | |
| 35 | 18% | 87% | |
| 36 | 20% | 69% | Last Result |
| 37 | 15% | 49% | Median |
| 38 | 30% | 34% | |
| 39 | 3% | 4% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 11% | 99.3% | |
| 26 | 8% | 88% | |
| 27 | 16% | 80% | |
| 28 | 19% | 64% | Median |
| 29 | 38% | 45% | |
| 30 | 5% | 7% | |
| 31 | 1.4% | 2% | Majority |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei – Demokratesch Partei – déi gréng
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 2% | 98% | |
| 24 | 21% | 95% | |
| 25 | 15% | 74% | |
| 26 | 41% | 59% | Median |
| 27 | 13% | 18% | |
| 28 | 4% | 5% | |
| 29 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ifop
- Commissioner(s): Tageblatt
- Fieldwork period: 9–19 October 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 827
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.76%