Opinion Poll by TNS for Luxemburger Wort and RTL, 1 December 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei | 33.7% | 36.7% | 35.3–38.2% | 34.8–38.6% | 34.5–38.9% | 33.8–39.7% |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei | 20.3% | 20.6% | 19.4–21.9% | 19.1–22.2% | 18.8–22.5% | 18.2–23.1% |
| déi gréng | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.8–11.7% | 9.5–11.9% | 9.3–12.2% | 8.9–12.7% |
| Demokratesch Partei | 18.2% | 10.0% | 9.2–11.0% | 8.9–11.2% | 8.7–11.5% | 8.3–12.0% |
| Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.1–8.8% | 6.9–9.0% | 6.8–9.3% | 6.4–9.7% |
| Déi Lénk | 4.9% | 7.7% | 6.9–8.6% | 6.7–8.8% | 6.5–9.0% | 6.2–9.4% |
| Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.2% |
| Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.7% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.0% | 1.5–3.3% |
| Partei fir Integral Demokratie | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.5% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei | 23 | 28 | 25–29 | 24–29 | 24–30 | 24–30 |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei | 13 | 12 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 11–14 |
| déi gréng | 6 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Demokratesch Partei | 13 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei | 3 | 3 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| Déi Lénk | 2 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partei fir Integral Demokratie | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 6% | 100% | |
| 25 | 5% | 94% | |
| 26 | 16% | 89% | |
| 27 | 15% | 72% | |
| 28 | 42% | 57% | Median |
| 29 | 12% | 15% | |
| 30 | 3% | 3% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 73% | 99.1% | Median |
| 13 | 16% | 26% | Last Result |
| 14 | 11% | 11% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
déi gréng
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi gréng page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 47% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 7 | 30% | 53% | Median |
| 8 | 23% | 23% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratesch Partei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratesch Partei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 24% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 58% | 76% | Median |
| 7 | 6% | 17% | |
| 8 | 6% | 11% | |
| 9 | 5% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 52% | 98% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 17% | 45% | |
| 5 | 28% | 29% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Déi Lénk
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Déi Lénk page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 61% | 97% | Median |
| 4 | 36% | 36% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 4% | |
| 2 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 64% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 36% | 36% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partei fir Integral Demokratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei fir Integral Demokratie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei | 36 | 40 | 100% | 38–41 | 37–41 | 36–42 | 36–42 |
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Demokratesch Partei | 36 | 34 | 96% | 31–35 | 31–35 | 30–36 | 30–36 |
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei | 23 | 28 | 0% | 25–29 | 24–29 | 24–30 | 24–30 |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei – déi gréng – Demokratesch Partei | 32 | 25 | 0% | 24–27 | 23–27 | 23–28 | 23–28 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 37 | 4% | 96% | |
| 38 | 13% | 92% | |
| 39 | 15% | 80% | |
| 40 | 36% | 65% | Median |
| 41 | 24% | 29% | |
| 42 | 5% | 5% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Demokratesch Partei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 4% | 100% | |
| 31 | 6% | 96% | Majority |
| 32 | 15% | 90% | |
| 33 | 16% | 75% | |
| 34 | 42% | 59% | Median |
| 35 | 13% | 16% | |
| 36 | 4% | 4% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 6% | 100% | |
| 25 | 5% | 94% | |
| 26 | 16% | 89% | |
| 27 | 15% | 72% | |
| 28 | 42% | 57% | Median |
| 29 | 12% | 15% | |
| 30 | 3% | 3% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei – déi gréng – Demokratesch Partei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 15% | 92% | |
| 25 | 41% | 77% | Median |
| 26 | 25% | 36% | |
| 27 | 7% | 11% | |
| 28 | 4% | 5% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: TNS
- Commissioner(s): Luxemburger Wort and RTL
- Fieldwork period: 1 December 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 1807
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.64%