Opinion Poll by TNS for Luxemburger Wort and RTL, 1 December 2017–31 May 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei | 33.7% | 43.0% | 41.9–44.1% | 41.6–44.4% | 41.4–44.6% | 40.9–45.2% |
| Demokratesch Partei | 18.2% | 17.0% | 16.2–17.8% | 16.0–18.1% | 15.8–18.3% | 15.4–18.7% |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei | 20.3% | 15.0% | 14.2–15.8% | 14.0–16.0% | 13.9–16.2% | 13.5–16.6% |
| déi gréng | 10.1% | 12.0% | 11.3–12.7% | 11.1–13.0% | 11.0–13.1% | 10.7–13.5% |
| Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.4–8.6% | 7.3–8.8% | 7.1–9.0% | 6.9–9.3% |
| Déi Lénk | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.6–5.5% | 4.4–5.7% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.1–6.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei | 23 | 29 | 29–30 | 28–30 | 28–30 | 27–31 |
| Demokratesch Partei | 13 | 11 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 9–11 |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei | 13 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| déi gréng | 6 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Déi Lénk | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 7% | 99.3% | |
| 29 | 73% | 92% | Median |
| 30 | 19% | 20% | |
| 31 | 0.9% | 0.9% | Majority |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratesch Partei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratesch Partei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 10 | 14% | 98.6% | |
| 11 | 85% | 85% | Median |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 30% | 100% | |
| 8 | 54% | 70% | Median |
| 9 | 16% | 16% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
déi gréng
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi gréng page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 23% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 65% | 77% | Median |
| 8 | 11% | 11% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 67% | 99.8% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 29% | 33% | |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Déi Lénk
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Déi Lénk page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7% | 100% | |
| 2 | 93% | 93% | Last Result, Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Demokratesch Partei | 36 | 40 | 100% | 39–41 | 39–41 | 39–41 | 38–41 |
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei | 36 | 37 | 100% | 36–38 | 36–38 | 35–38 | 35–39 |
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei | 23 | 29 | 0.9% | 29–30 | 28–30 | 28–30 | 27–31 |
| Demokratesch Partei – Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei – déi gréng | 32 | 26 | 0% | 24–26 | 24–27 | 24–27 | 24–27 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Demokratesch Partei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 15% | 98% | |
| 40 | 69% | 83% | Median |
| 41 | 14% | 14% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 35 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 18% | 96% | Last Result |
| 37 | 56% | 78% | Median |
| 38 | 21% | 22% | |
| 39 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 7% | 99.3% | |
| 29 | 73% | 92% | Median |
| 30 | 19% | 20% | |
| 31 | 0.9% | 0.9% | Majority |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratesch Partei – Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei – déi gréng
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 24% | 88% | |
| 26 | 58% | 64% | Median |
| 27 | 5% | 6% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: TNS
- Commissioner(s): Luxemburger Wort and RTL
- Fieldwork period: 1 December 2017–31 May 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 3521
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.58%