Opinion Poll by Focus for TV Markíza, 21–26 July 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 18.3% | 18.1% | 16.6–19.7% | 16.2–20.1% | 15.8–20.5% | 15.2–21.4% |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia | 0.0% | 16.0% | 14.6–17.6% | 14.2–18.0% | 13.9–18.4% | 13.2–19.2% |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 7.0% | 14.3% | 12.9–15.7% | 12.6–16.2% | 12.2–16.5% | 11.6–17.3% |
| REPUBLIKA | 0.0% | 8.7% | 7.7–9.9% | 7.4–10.3% | 7.1–10.6% | 6.6–11.2% |
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí | 0.0% | 6.2% | 5.3–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.5–8.4% |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.7–6.6% | 4.5–6.9% | 4.3–7.1% | 3.9–7.7% |
| SME RODINA | 8.2% | 5.6% | 4.7–6.6% | 4.5–6.9% | 4.3–7.1% | 3.9–7.7% |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% | 4.0–6.7% | 3.6–7.2% |
| Slovenská národná strana | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.6–7.1% |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 7.0% | 3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.6% |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 8.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.7–3.3% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.4–3.9% |
| MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.3–2.4% | 1.2–2.6% | 1.1–2.8% | 0.9–3.1% |
| Magyar Fórum | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.9% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 38 | 37 | 32–37 | 30–39 | 27–39 | 27–41 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia | 0 | 29 | 29–32 | 28–34 | 26–35 | 25–37 |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 0 | 31 | 25–31 | 24–31 | 23–31 | 21–33 |
| REPUBLIKA | 0 | 16 | 14–18 | 13–18 | 13–19 | 12–21 |
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí | 0 | 13 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 0–14 | 0–15 |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 0 | 12 | 10–12 | 0–12 | 0–14 | 0–15 |
| SME RODINA | 17 | 12 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–15 |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 13 | 0 | 0–10 | 0–11 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
| Slovenská národná strana | 0 | 0 | 0–11 | 0–11 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–11 |
| SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–10 |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Magyar Fórum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 3% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 29 | 2% | 97% | |
| 30 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 31 | 2% | 94% | |
| 32 | 4% | 92% | |
| 33 | 4% | 88% | |
| 34 | 7% | 84% | |
| 35 | 2% | 77% | |
| 36 | 2% | 75% | |
| 37 | 64% | 73% | Median |
| 38 | 0.9% | 8% | Last Result |
| 39 | 6% | 7% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 26 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 27 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 28 | 3% | 96% | |
| 29 | 68% | 93% | Median |
| 30 | 3% | 25% | |
| 31 | 6% | 22% | |
| 32 | 8% | 16% | |
| 33 | 2% | 8% | |
| 34 | 3% | 6% | |
| 35 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 36 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Progresívne Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 22 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 23 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 24 | 3% | 97% | |
| 25 | 8% | 94% | |
| 26 | 5% | 86% | |
| 27 | 1.5% | 81% | |
| 28 | 2% | 80% | |
| 29 | 9% | 77% | |
| 30 | 1.3% | 68% | |
| 31 | 64% | 66% | Median |
| 32 | 2% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
REPUBLIKA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 3% | 98% | |
| 14 | 7% | 95% | |
| 15 | 6% | 88% | |
| 16 | 67% | 82% | Median |
| 17 | 3% | 15% | |
| 18 | 9% | 12% | |
| 19 | 2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 96% | |
| 2 | 0% | 96% | |
| 3 | 0% | 96% | |
| 4 | 0% | 96% | |
| 5 | 0% | 96% | |
| 6 | 0% | 96% | |
| 7 | 0% | 96% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 9 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 10 | 4% | 95% | |
| 11 | 13% | 92% | |
| 12 | 4% | 79% | |
| 13 | 72% | 75% | Median |
| 14 | 2% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 92% | |
| 2 | 0% | 92% | |
| 3 | 0% | 92% | |
| 4 | 0% | 92% | |
| 5 | 0% | 92% | |
| 6 | 0% | 92% | |
| 7 | 0% | 92% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 9 | 0.9% | 92% | |
| 10 | 5% | 91% | |
| 11 | 12% | 87% | |
| 12 | 70% | 75% | Median |
| 13 | 2% | 4% | |
| 14 | 2% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
SME RODINA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 89% | |
| 2 | 0% | 89% | |
| 3 | 0% | 89% | |
| 4 | 0% | 89% | |
| 5 | 0% | 89% | |
| 6 | 0% | 89% | |
| 7 | 0% | 89% | |
| 8 | 0% | 89% | |
| 9 | 0.8% | 89% | |
| 10 | 8% | 88% | |
| 11 | 6% | 80% | |
| 12 | 71% | 74% | Median |
| 13 | 2% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sloboda a Solidarita
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 73% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 27% | |
| 2 | 0% | 27% | |
| 3 | 0% | 27% | |
| 4 | 0% | 27% | |
| 5 | 0% | 27% | |
| 6 | 0% | 27% | |
| 7 | 0% | 27% | |
| 8 | 0% | 27% | |
| 9 | 4% | 27% | |
| 10 | 15% | 23% | |
| 11 | 4% | 8% | |
| 12 | 2% | 4% | |
| 13 | 1.4% | 2% | Last Result |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenská národná strana
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 78% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 22% | |
| 2 | 0% | 22% | |
| 3 | 0% | 22% | |
| 4 | 0% | 22% | |
| 5 | 0% | 22% | |
| 6 | 0% | 22% | |
| 7 | 0% | 22% | |
| 8 | 0% | 22% | |
| 9 | 2% | 22% | |
| 10 | 10% | 20% | |
| 11 | 6% | 11% | |
| 12 | 3% | 4% | |
| 13 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 2% | |
| 9 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 10 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Magyar Fórum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Fórum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 72 | 78 | 87% | 75–83 | 72–87 | 69–88 | 64–91 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana | 55 | 78 | 87% | 75–83 | 72–87 | 69–88 | 64–91 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 55 | 78 | 77% | 69–78 | 65–81 | 64–83 | 58–86 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 38 | 66 | 7% | 66–75 | 65–76 | 61–78 | 58–81 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 72 | 49 | 0% | 44–52 | 42–55 | 38–56 | 32–60 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana | 55 | 49 | 0% | 44–52 | 42–55 | 38–56 | 32–60 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 34 | 41 | 0% | 41–52 | 38–54 | 36–55 | 31–57 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana | 17 | 41 | 0% | 41–52 | 38–54 | 36–55 | 31–57 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 55 | 49 | 0% | 37–49 | 34–49 | 34–51 | 31–51 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 38 | 37 | 0% | 37–44 | 34–45 | 31–47 | 29–51 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 17 | 41 | 0% | 34–43 | 31–44 | 29–46 | 26–49 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 0 | 29 | 0% | 29–41 | 29–43 | 29–44 | 26–45 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 38 | 37 | 0% | 32–37 | 30–39 | 27–39 | 27–41 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 65 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 68 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 69 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 71 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 72 | 1.4% | 96% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 75 | 6% | 93% | |
| 76 | 1.1% | 87% | Majority |
| 77 | 1.3% | 86% | |
| 78 | 63% | 85% | Median |
| 79 | 3% | 21% | |
| 80 | 1.1% | 18% | |
| 81 | 4% | 17% | |
| 82 | 1.0% | 12% | |
| 83 | 3% | 11% | |
| 84 | 3% | 9% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 86 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 87 | 2% | 6% | |
| 88 | 2% | 4% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 91 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 65 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 68 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 69 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 71 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 72 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 73 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 75 | 6% | 93% | |
| 76 | 1.1% | 87% | Majority |
| 77 | 1.3% | 86% | |
| 78 | 63% | 85% | Median |
| 79 | 3% | 21% | |
| 80 | 1.1% | 18% | |
| 81 | 4% | 17% | |
| 82 | 1.0% | 12% | |
| 83 | 3% | 11% | |
| 84 | 3% | 9% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 86 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 87 | 2% | 6% | |
| 88 | 2% | 4% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 91 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 62 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 64 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 65 | 5% | 97% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 68 | 1.1% | 91% | |
| 69 | 4% | 90% | |
| 70 | 2% | 86% | |
| 71 | 1.4% | 84% | |
| 72 | 3% | 83% | |
| 73 | 1.5% | 79% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 78% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 77% | |
| 76 | 2% | 77% | Majority |
| 77 | 2% | 75% | |
| 78 | 64% | 72% | Median |
| 79 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 80 | 0.6% | 8% | |
| 81 | 4% | 8% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 83 | 2% | 3% | |
| 84 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 60 | 0.9% | 98.6% | |
| 61 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 63 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 64 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 66 | 63% | 95% | Median |
| 67 | 3% | 32% | |
| 68 | 1.2% | 29% | |
| 69 | 1.3% | 27% | |
| 70 | 2% | 26% | |
| 71 | 6% | 24% | |
| 72 | 3% | 18% | |
| 73 | 2% | 15% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 13% | |
| 75 | 6% | 13% | |
| 76 | 3% | 7% | Majority |
| 77 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 78 | 2% | 4% | |
| 79 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 36 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 37 | 0% | 98% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 40 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 42 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 44 | 6% | 94% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 88% | |
| 46 | 1.3% | 87% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 86% | |
| 48 | 0.7% | 85% | |
| 49 | 70% | 85% | Median |
| 50 | 1.0% | 14% | |
| 51 | 2% | 13% | |
| 52 | 2% | 11% | |
| 53 | 0.9% | 9% | |
| 54 | 2% | 9% | |
| 55 | 2% | 6% | |
| 56 | 2% | 4% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 36 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 37 | 0% | 98% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 40 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 42 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 44 | 6% | 94% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 88% | |
| 46 | 1.3% | 87% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 86% | |
| 48 | 0.7% | 85% | |
| 49 | 70% | 85% | Median |
| 50 | 1.0% | 14% | |
| 51 | 2% | 13% | |
| 52 | 2% | 11% | |
| 53 | 0.9% | 9% | |
| 54 | 2% | 9% | |
| 55 | 2% | 6% | Last Result |
| 56 | 2% | 4% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 98.9% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 36 | 2% | 98% | |
| 37 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 38 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 39 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 40 | 2% | 94% | |
| 41 | 68% | 92% | Median |
| 42 | 5% | 23% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 19% | |
| 44 | 2% | 18% | |
| 45 | 1.0% | 16% | |
| 46 | 1.4% | 15% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 14% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 13% | |
| 50 | 1.1% | 12% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 11% | |
| 52 | 5% | 11% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 54 | 2% | 5% | |
| 55 | 2% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 36 | 2% | 98% | |
| 37 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 38 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 39 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 40 | 2% | 94% | |
| 41 | 68% | 92% | Median |
| 42 | 5% | 23% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 19% | |
| 44 | 2% | 18% | |
| 45 | 1.0% | 16% | |
| 46 | 1.4% | 15% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 14% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 13% | |
| 50 | 1.1% | 12% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 11% | |
| 52 | 5% | 11% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 54 | 2% | 5% | |
| 55 | 2% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 34 | 5% | 98.5% | |
| 35 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 36 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 37 | 2% | 91% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 90% | |
| 39 | 3% | 89% | |
| 40 | 1.5% | 86% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 85% | |
| 42 | 2% | 84% | |
| 43 | 3% | 82% | |
| 44 | 6% | 79% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 73% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 73% | |
| 47 | 1.0% | 72% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 71% | |
| 49 | 68% | 71% | Median |
| 50 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 51 | 2% | 3% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 31 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 32 | 2% | 97% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 36 | 2% | 94% | |
| 37 | 65% | 92% | Median |
| 38 | 0.9% | 27% | Last Result |
| 39 | 6% | 26% | |
| 40 | 2% | 20% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 18% | |
| 42 | 0.9% | 17% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 17% | |
| 44 | 11% | 16% | |
| 45 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 46 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 47 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 48 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 29 | 2% | 98% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 31 | 5% | 96% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 34 | 0.7% | 90% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 36 | 2% | 90% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 38 | 0.7% | 87% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 86% | |
| 40 | 4% | 86% | |
| 41 | 64% | 82% | Median |
| 42 | 7% | 17% | |
| 43 | 3% | 10% | |
| 44 | 4% | 7% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 46 | 2% | 3% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 29 | 65% | 98% | Median |
| 30 | 0.2% | 33% | |
| 31 | 0.7% | 33% | |
| 32 | 6% | 33% | |
| 33 | 1.0% | 27% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 26% | |
| 35 | 2% | 25% | |
| 36 | 2% | 23% | |
| 37 | 1.1% | 21% | |
| 38 | 2% | 20% | |
| 39 | 1.0% | 18% | |
| 40 | 5% | 17% | |
| 41 | 5% | 12% | |
| 42 | 1.5% | 7% | |
| 43 | 2% | 6% | |
| 44 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 45 | 2% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 3% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 29 | 2% | 97% | |
| 30 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 31 | 2% | 94% | |
| 32 | 4% | 92% | |
| 33 | 4% | 88% | |
| 34 | 7% | 84% | |
| 35 | 2% | 77% | |
| 36 | 2% | 75% | |
| 37 | 64% | 73% | Median |
| 38 | 0.9% | 8% | Last Result |
| 39 | 6% | 7% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Focus
- Commissioner(s): TV Markíza
- Fieldwork period: 21–26 July 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1024
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.23%