Opinion Poll by Median for RTVS, 21–26 July 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 18.3% 21.5% 19.9–23.2% 19.4–23.7% 19.1–24.1% 18.3–25.0%
Progresívne Slovensko 7.0% 17.1% 15.7–18.7% 15.3–19.2% 14.9–19.6% 14.3–20.4%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia 0.0% 12.1% 10.9–13.5% 10.5–13.9% 10.2–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
REPUBLIKA 0.0% 9.7% 8.6–11.0% 8.3–11.4% 8.0–11.7% 7.5–12.3%
SME RODINA 8.2% 7.4% 6.5–8.6% 6.2–8.9% 6.0–9.2% 5.5–9.8%
Sloboda a Solidarita 6.2% 6.5% 5.6–7.7% 5.4–8.0% 5.2–8.2% 4.8–8.8%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.6% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.5%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí 0.0% 5.3% 4.5–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–6.9% 3.8–7.4%
Slovenská národná strana 3.2% 4.2% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.3% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 7.0% 3.4% 2.7–4.2% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.1%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 3.9% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.6–3.5% 1.4–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 37 34–41 33–41 33–43 32–45
Progresívne Slovensko 0 30 27–33 26–34 26–35 24–37
HLAS–sociálna demokracia 0 21 19–23 18–26 18–26 17–27
REPUBLIKA 0 17 15–19 14–20 13–21 13–22
SME RODINA 17 13 11–15 11–16 11–16 10–18
Sloboda a Solidarita 13 11 10–14 9–14 9–15 0–15
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 11 9–13 9–14 0–14 0–15
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí 0 9 0–10 0–11 0–12 0–13
Slovenská národná strana 0 0 0 0–9 0–9 0–10
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0 0 0 0–9
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.7%  
33 4% 98%  
34 5% 94%  
35 8% 89%  
36 13% 81%  
37 20% 69% Median
38 13% 48% Last Result
39 19% 35%  
40 6% 16%  
41 5% 10%  
42 1.1% 5%  
43 1.3% 4%  
44 0.4% 2%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.1% 0.4%  
47 0.3% 0.3%  
48 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.9%  
25 1.2% 99.5%  
26 6% 98%  
27 6% 92%  
28 10% 86%  
29 20% 76%  
30 14% 56% Median
31 8% 42%  
32 8% 34%  
33 20% 26%  
34 3% 6%  
35 1.1% 3%  
36 0.5% 2%  
37 1.1% 1.2%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 0.5% 99.7%  
18 6% 99.2%  
19 20% 93%  
20 14% 73%  
21 10% 59% Median
22 9% 49%  
23 31% 40%  
24 2% 9%  
25 1.2% 7%  
26 5% 6%  
27 0.4% 0.6%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.2% 100%  
13 2% 99.8%  
14 3% 97%  
15 5% 94%  
16 12% 90%  
17 48% 78% Median
18 17% 30%  
19 5% 12%  
20 5% 8%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.8% 1.1%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0.2% 99.9%  
10 2% 99.7%  
11 11% 98%  
12 18% 87%  
13 30% 69% Median
14 10% 39%  
15 20% 29%  
16 7% 9%  
17 1.2% 2% Last Result
18 0.6% 0.6%  
19 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100%  
1 0% 98.9%  
2 0% 98.9%  
3 0% 98.9%  
4 0% 98.9%  
5 0% 98.9%  
6 0% 98.9%  
7 0% 98.9%  
8 0.1% 98.9%  
9 4% 98.8%  
10 22% 95%  
11 27% 72% Median
12 17% 46%  
13 16% 28% Last Result
14 8% 12%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.2% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 0.2% 97%  
9 15% 97%  
10 15% 82%  
11 18% 67% Median
12 30% 49%  
13 10% 19%  
14 7% 9%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100% Last Result
1 0% 71%  
2 0% 71%  
3 0% 71%  
4 0% 71%  
5 0% 71%  
6 0% 71%  
7 0% 71%  
8 0.4% 71%  
9 33% 71% Median
10 28% 38%  
11 7% 10%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.8% 0.9%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 10%  
2 0% 10%  
3 0% 10%  
4 0% 10%  
5 0% 10%  
6 0% 10%  
7 0% 10%  
8 1.2% 10%  
9 7% 8%  
10 1.3% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0% 2%  
8 1.0% 2%  
9 1.1% 1.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 55 71 17% 67–77 66–79 66–81 64–83
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 55 73 24% 68–78 66–81 66–81 65–84
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 38 59 0% 56–64 55–66 53–68 53–71
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 55 52 0% 47–56 46–58 46–59 45–63
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 55 51 0% 47–55 46–56 45–58 44–60
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 38 38 0% 35–42 34–46 33–47 33–49
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 37 0% 34–41 33–41 33–43 32–45
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 17 35 0% 31–40 31–42 31–43 30–46
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 17 35 0% 31–38 31–39 30–42 29–42
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 0 22 0% 19–26 18–29 18–30 17–33

SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100% Last Result
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.6% 99.6%  
65 0.9% 99.0%  
66 6% 98%  
67 5% 92%  
68 6% 87%  
69 5% 82%  
70 6% 77%  
71 22% 70% Median
72 6% 49%  
73 6% 43%  
74 6% 37%  
75 13% 31%  
76 2% 17% Majority
77 8% 15%  
78 2% 8%  
79 2% 6%  
80 0.4% 4%  
81 3% 4%  
82 0.2% 0.9%  
83 0.3% 0.7%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100% Last Result
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.3% 99.7%  
66 5% 99.4%  
67 3% 94%  
68 4% 92%  
69 4% 88%  
70 5% 84%  
71 22% 78% Median
72 6% 57%  
73 6% 51%  
74 7% 45%  
75 14% 38%  
76 5% 24% Majority
77 8% 20%  
78 3% 11%  
79 3% 8%  
80 0.5% 6%  
81 3% 5%  
82 0.5% 2%  
83 0.6% 2%  
84 0.8% 1.1%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 2% 99.7%  
54 0.9% 97%  
55 5% 96%  
56 9% 91%  
57 2% 82%  
58 20% 79% Median
59 15% 59%  
60 12% 43%  
61 2% 31%  
62 6% 29%  
63 4% 22%  
64 9% 18%  
65 4% 10%  
66 1.1% 6%  
67 2% 5%  
68 0.9% 3%  
69 0.4% 2%  
70 0.8% 1.4%  
71 0.5% 0.7%  
72 0% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.1% 99.8%  
45 0.7% 99.7%  
46 5% 99.0%  
47 9% 94%  
48 9% 85%  
49 4% 77%  
50 6% 73% Median
51 9% 67%  
52 23% 58%  
53 8% 35%  
54 8% 27%  
55 8% 19% Last Result
56 2% 11%  
57 0.9% 9%  
58 3% 8%  
59 2% 5%  
60 0.8% 2%  
61 0.3% 1.2%  
62 0.1% 0.9%  
63 0.5% 0.8%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 1.0% 99.6%  
45 2% 98.6%  
46 6% 97%  
47 10% 91%  
48 9% 81%  
49 6% 72%  
50 7% 66% Median
51 9% 59%  
52 23% 50%  
53 7% 26%  
54 8% 20%  
55 6% 12% Last Result
56 2% 5%  
57 0.4% 3%  
58 1.1% 3%  
59 1.3% 2%  
60 0.5% 0.6%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.8%  
33 3% 99.5%  
34 3% 97%  
35 8% 93%  
36 12% 86%  
37 18% 73% Median
38 13% 56% Last Result
39 18% 43%  
40 6% 25%  
41 6% 19%  
42 3% 13%  
43 1.4% 10%  
44 0.7% 8%  
45 2% 8%  
46 3% 6%  
47 0.7% 3%  
48 1.2% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.8%  
50 0.1% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.7%  
33 4% 98%  
34 5% 94%  
35 8% 89%  
36 13% 81%  
37 20% 69% Median
38 13% 48% Last Result
39 19% 35%  
40 6% 16%  
41 5% 10%  
42 1.1% 5%  
43 1.3% 4%  
44 0.4% 2%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.1% 0.4%  
47 0.3% 0.3%  
48 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.2% 99.7%  
30 1.3% 99.5%  
31 9% 98%  
32 14% 89%  
33 9% 75%  
34 5% 66% Median
35 16% 61%  
36 10% 46%  
37 5% 36%  
38 15% 31%  
39 6% 16%  
40 1.2% 10%  
41 0.6% 9%  
42 5% 8%  
43 0.6% 3%  
44 1.3% 2%  
45 0.4% 1.1%  
46 0.4% 0.7%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.8%  
29 0.5% 99.5%  
30 4% 99.0%  
31 9% 95%  
32 15% 86%  
33 11% 71%  
34 7% 60% Median
35 17% 54%  
36 11% 37%  
37 5% 26%  
38 15% 22%  
39 3% 7%  
40 0.5% 3%  
41 0.4% 3%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.8%  
18 5% 99.5%  
19 19% 95%  
20 13% 76%  
21 7% 63% Median
22 7% 56%  
23 30% 49%  
24 2% 18%  
25 1.2% 16%  
26 5% 15%  
27 2% 10%  
28 1.3% 8%  
29 2% 7%  
30 2% 4%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.9%  
33 0.3% 0.6%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations