Opinion Poll by NMS, 1–7 August 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 18.3% | 23.3% | 21.9–24.8% | 21.5–25.2% | 21.2–25.6% | 20.5–26.3% |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 7.0% | 17.0% | 15.8–18.4% | 15.4–18.7% | 15.2–19.1% | 14.6–19.7% |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia | 0.0% | 11.5% | 10.5–12.7% | 10.2–13.0% | 10.0–13.3% | 9.5–13.9% |
| REPUBLIKA | 0.0% | 7.5% | 6.7–8.5% | 6.4–8.7% | 6.2–9.0% | 5.9–9.5% |
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí | 0.0% | 6.3% | 5.5–7.2% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.1–7.7% | 4.8–8.1% |
| Slovenská národná strana | 3.2% | 6.0% | 5.3–6.9% | 5.0–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.5–7.8% |
| SME RODINA | 8.2% | 5.6% | 4.9–6.4% | 4.7–6.7% | 4.5–6.9% | 4.2–7.3% |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.1–6.1% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.7–6.7% |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.9–5.3% | 3.7–5.5% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.3–6.1% |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.0–4.3% |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 8.0% | 2.8% | 2.3–3.5% | 2.2–3.7% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.2% |
| SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 7.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.2% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.9–3.6% | 1.7–3.9% |
| MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.3–2.1% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.4% | 0.9–2.7% |
| Magyar Fórum | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 38 | 44 | 41–49 | 40–51 | 38–53 | 36–53 |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 0 | 32 | 30–33 | 29–35 | 29–40 | 28–40 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia | 0 | 20 | 20–24 | 20–25 | 19–25 | 18–26 |
| REPUBLIKA | 0 | 14 | 13–16 | 10–16 | 10–17 | 10–18 |
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí | 0 | 11 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–16 | 0–16 |
| Slovenská národná strana | 0 | 12 | 9–14 | 0–14 | 0–14 | 0–14 |
| SME RODINA | 17 | 11 | 0–11 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–14 |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 0 | 10 | 0–10 | 0–11 | 0–11 | 0–12 |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 13 | 0 | 0–10 | 0–11 | 0–11 | 0–12 |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Magyar Fórum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 40 | 2% | 96% | |
| 41 | 40% | 94% | |
| 42 | 0.7% | 54% | |
| 43 | 2% | 53% | |
| 44 | 10% | 52% | Median |
| 45 | 5% | 42% | |
| 46 | 0.9% | 37% | |
| 47 | 1.1% | 36% | |
| 48 | 25% | 35% | |
| 49 | 3% | 10% | |
| 50 | 3% | 8% | |
| 51 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 53 | 4% | 4% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Progresívne Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 29 | 4% | 98% | |
| 30 | 7% | 94% | |
| 31 | 10% | 87% | |
| 32 | 41% | 77% | Median |
| 33 | 26% | 36% | |
| 34 | 1.2% | 10% | |
| 35 | 4% | 9% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 40 | 4% | 4% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 19 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 20 | 48% | 97% | Median |
| 21 | 15% | 49% | |
| 22 | 21% | 35% | |
| 23 | 2% | 14% | |
| 24 | 5% | 12% | |
| 25 | 6% | 7% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
REPUBLIKA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 5% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 12 | 2% | 93% | |
| 13 | 28% | 92% | |
| 14 | 25% | 64% | Median |
| 15 | 28% | 39% | |
| 16 | 8% | 11% | |
| 17 | 2% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 10 | 22% | 99.1% | |
| 11 | 49% | 77% | Median |
| 12 | 17% | 29% | |
| 13 | 1.2% | 12% | |
| 14 | 6% | 11% | |
| 15 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 16 | 4% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenská národná strana
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 95% | |
| 2 | 0% | 95% | |
| 3 | 0% | 95% | |
| 4 | 0% | 95% | |
| 5 | 0% | 95% | |
| 6 | 0% | 95% | |
| 7 | 0% | 95% | |
| 8 | 0% | 95% | |
| 9 | 18% | 95% | |
| 10 | 2% | 77% | |
| 11 | 17% | 74% | |
| 12 | 24% | 58% | Median |
| 13 | 3% | 33% | |
| 14 | 30% | 30% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
SME RODINA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 82% | |
| 2 | 0% | 82% | |
| 3 | 0% | 82% | |
| 4 | 0% | 82% | |
| 5 | 0% | 82% | |
| 6 | 0% | 82% | |
| 7 | 0% | 82% | |
| 8 | 0% | 82% | |
| 9 | 2% | 82% | |
| 10 | 21% | 80% | |
| 11 | 53% | 59% | Median |
| 12 | 5% | 7% | |
| 13 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 44% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 56% | |
| 2 | 0% | 56% | |
| 3 | 0% | 56% | |
| 4 | 0% | 56% | |
| 5 | 0% | 56% | |
| 6 | 0% | 56% | |
| 7 | 0% | 56% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 56% | |
| 9 | 0.9% | 55% | |
| 10 | 48% | 54% | Median |
| 11 | 4% | 6% | |
| 12 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Sloboda a Solidarita
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 88% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 12% | |
| 2 | 0% | 12% | |
| 3 | 0% | 12% | |
| 4 | 0% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0% | 12% | |
| 6 | 0% | 12% | |
| 7 | 0% | 12% | |
| 8 | 0% | 12% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 12% | |
| 10 | 4% | 11% | |
| 11 | 6% | 7% | |
| 12 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Magyar Fórum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Fórum page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 72 | 84 | 99.4% | 78–93 | 76–93 | 76–94 | 75–94 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA | 55 | 84 | 99.4% | 78–93 | 76–93 | 76–94 | 75–94 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 38 | 76 | 51% | 72–82 | 72–82 | 69–89 | 67–89 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 55 | 73 | 38% | 68–79 | 65–80 | 65–82 | 65–85 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 72 | 64 | 0.2% | 55–73 | 55–73 | 53–73 | 53–73 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA | 55 | 64 | 0.2% | 55–73 | 55–73 | 53–73 | 53–73 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 38 | 53 | 0% | 50–62 | 50–62 | 49–64 | 46–65 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 55 | 52 | 0% | 46–59 | 44–59 | 44–61 | 44–63 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 38 | 44 | 0% | 41–49 | 40–51 | 38–53 | 36–53 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 34 | 43 | 0% | 33–45 | 32–45 | 25–45 | 25–48 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA | 17 | 43 | 0% | 33–45 | 32–45 | 25–45 | 25–48 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 0 | 32 | 0% | 31–34 | 26–35 | 25–39 | 21–39 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 17 | 31 | 0% | 24–32 | 21–33 | 21–34 | 21–37 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 71 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 76 | 6% | 99.4% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 78 | 5% | 94% | |
| 79 | 3% | 89% | |
| 80 | 1.4% | 86% | |
| 81 | 1.0% | 85% | |
| 82 | 19% | 84% | |
| 83 | 5% | 65% | |
| 84 | 21% | 60% | |
| 85 | 2% | 39% | |
| 86 | 0.5% | 38% | |
| 87 | 4% | 37% | Median |
| 88 | 0.3% | 34% | |
| 89 | 4% | 33% | |
| 90 | 0.6% | 30% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 29% | |
| 92 | 0.8% | 29% | |
| 93 | 25% | 28% | |
| 94 | 3% | 3% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 71 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 73 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 76 | 6% | 99.4% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 78 | 5% | 94% | |
| 79 | 3% | 89% | |
| 80 | 1.4% | 86% | |
| 81 | 1.0% | 85% | |
| 82 | 19% | 84% | |
| 83 | 5% | 65% | |
| 84 | 21% | 60% | |
| 85 | 2% | 39% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 38% | |
| 87 | 4% | 37% | Median |
| 88 | 0.3% | 34% | |
| 89 | 4% | 33% | |
| 90 | 0.6% | 30% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 29% | |
| 92 | 0.8% | 29% | |
| 93 | 25% | 28% | |
| 94 | 3% | 3% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 98.7% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 72 | 21% | 97% | |
| 73 | 21% | 76% | |
| 74 | 2% | 55% | |
| 75 | 2% | 52% | |
| 76 | 9% | 51% | Median, Majority |
| 77 | 0.8% | 42% | |
| 78 | 4% | 41% | |
| 79 | 4% | 37% | |
| 80 | 1.0% | 33% | |
| 81 | 0.8% | 32% | |
| 82 | 27% | 32% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 86 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 87 | 0% | 3% | |
| 88 | 0% | 3% | |
| 89 | 3% | 3% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 65 | 5% | 99.5% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 68 | 4% | 93% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 70 | 3% | 89% | |
| 71 | 1.1% | 86% | |
| 72 | 22% | 85% | |
| 73 | 20% | 63% | |
| 74 | 1.0% | 43% | |
| 75 | 4% | 42% | Median |
| 76 | 3% | 38% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.5% | 35% | |
| 78 | 4% | 34% | |
| 79 | 25% | 30% | |
| 80 | 2% | 5% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 82 | 2% | 4% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 85 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 55 | 8% | 96% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 57 | 1.4% | 88% | |
| 58 | 0.8% | 86% | |
| 59 | 2% | 85% | |
| 60 | 19% | 84% | |
| 61 | 2% | 65% | |
| 62 | 5% | 63% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 59% | |
| 64 | 22% | 58% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 35% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 35% | |
| 67 | 4% | 34% | Median |
| 68 | 0.6% | 30% | |
| 69 | 0.5% | 30% | |
| 70 | 1.3% | 29% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 28% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 28% | Last Result |
| 73 | 27% | 27% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 55 | 8% | 96% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 57 | 1.4% | 88% | |
| 58 | 0.8% | 86% | |
| 59 | 2% | 85% | |
| 60 | 19% | 84% | |
| 61 | 2% | 65% | |
| 62 | 5% | 63% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 59% | |
| 64 | 22% | 58% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 35% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 35% | |
| 67 | 4% | 34% | Median |
| 68 | 0.6% | 30% | |
| 69 | 0.5% | 30% | |
| 70 | 1.3% | 29% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 28% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 28% | |
| 73 | 27% | 27% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 47 | 0.9% | 98.8% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 50 | 18% | 97% | |
| 51 | 5% | 79% | |
| 52 | 3% | 75% | |
| 53 | 23% | 72% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 49% | |
| 55 | 9% | 48% | |
| 56 | 4% | 39% | Median |
| 57 | 2% | 35% | |
| 58 | 1.2% | 33% | |
| 59 | 0.8% | 32% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 31% | |
| 61 | 2% | 31% | |
| 62 | 25% | 29% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 64 | 3% | 3% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 44 | 9% | 99.6% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 91% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 47 | 1.2% | 90% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 89% | |
| 49 | 3% | 88% | |
| 50 | 4% | 85% | |
| 51 | 20% | 81% | |
| 52 | 20% | 60% | |
| 53 | 4% | 40% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 36% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 35% | Last Result, Median |
| 56 | 5% | 34% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 30% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 30% | |
| 59 | 25% | 29% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 61 | 2% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 40 | 2% | 96% | |
| 41 | 40% | 94% | |
| 42 | 0.7% | 54% | |
| 43 | 2% | 53% | |
| 44 | 10% | 52% | Median |
| 45 | 5% | 42% | |
| 46 | 0.9% | 37% | |
| 47 | 1.1% | 36% | |
| 48 | 25% | 35% | |
| 49 | 3% | 10% | |
| 50 | 3% | 8% | |
| 51 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 53 | 4% | 4% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0% | 96% | |
| 27 | 0% | 96% | |
| 28 | 0% | 96% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 32 | 6% | 96% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 90% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 89% | Last Result |
| 35 | 3% | 89% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 86% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 85% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 39 | 3% | 84% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 81% | |
| 41 | 19% | 80% | |
| 42 | 7% | 61% | |
| 43 | 20% | 54% | Median |
| 44 | 2% | 35% | |
| 45 | 30% | 33% | |
| 46 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0% | 96% | |
| 27 | 0% | 96% | |
| 28 | 0% | 96% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 32 | 6% | 96% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 90% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 89% | |
| 35 | 3% | 89% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 86% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 85% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 39 | 3% | 84% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 81% | |
| 41 | 19% | 80% | |
| 42 | 7% | 61% | |
| 43 | 20% | 54% | Median |
| 44 | 2% | 35% | |
| 45 | 30% | 33% | |
| 46 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 25 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 26 | 0% | 95% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 30 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 31 | 22% | 93% | |
| 32 | 27% | 71% | Median |
| 33 | 6% | 44% | |
| 34 | 28% | 38% | |
| 35 | 5% | 9% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 39 | 3% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 20 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 21 | 6% | 99.6% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 24 | 3% | 92% | |
| 25 | 6% | 89% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 83% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 83% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 82% | |
| 29 | 1.3% | 82% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 81% | |
| 31 | 49% | 80% | Median |
| 32 | 23% | 31% | |
| 33 | 5% | 8% | |
| 34 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: NMS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 1–7 August 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1416
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.12%