Opinion Poll by Median for RTVS, 25–31 August 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 18.3% 17.8% 16.3–19.4% 15.9–19.9% 15.5–20.3% 14.8–21.1%
Progresívne Slovensko 7.0% 17.8% 16.3–19.4% 15.9–19.9% 15.5–20.3% 14.8–21.1%
REPUBLIKA 0.0% 10.2% 9.0–11.5% 8.7–11.9% 8.5–12.2% 7.9–12.9%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia 0.0% 9.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.0–11.0% 7.7–11.4% 7.2–12.0%
SME RODINA 8.2% 8.2% 7.2–9.4% 6.9–9.8% 6.6–10.1% 6.2–10.7%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.6% 7.3% 6.3–8.4% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí 0.0% 7.1% 6.1–8.2% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.2–9.4%
Sloboda a Solidarita 6.2% 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.1% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
Slovenská národná strana 3.2% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 7.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.4%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 31 28–32 27–34 27–34 25–36
Progresívne Slovensko 0 31 28–33 27–33 26–34 25–35
REPUBLIKA 0 17 16–19 15–20 15–21 14–21
HLAS–sociálna demokracia 0 16 14–18 13–19 13–19 13–20
SME RODINA 17 15 12–15 12–16 11–17 11–18
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 14 11–14 10–14 10–15 9–17
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí 0 13 11–13 10–14 10–15 9–16
Sloboda a Solidarita 13 13 10–13 10–13 9–13 9–15
Slovenská národná strana 0 0 0–10 0–11 0–11 0–12
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0 0 0 0–8
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 17 0 0 0 0 0

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.7% 99.9%  
26 1.4% 99.2%  
27 3% 98%  
28 8% 94%  
29 8% 86%  
30 5% 79%  
31 60% 73% Median
32 4% 14%  
33 5% 10%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.1% 2%  
36 0.4% 0.7%  
37 0.1% 0.3%  
38 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
39 0% 0%  

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.8% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.0%  
27 3% 97%  
28 5% 94%  
29 7% 89%  
30 8% 82%  
31 57% 74% Median
32 7% 17%  
33 5% 10%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.4% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9%  
14 1.4% 99.5%  
15 4% 98%  
16 6% 94%  
17 66% 88% Median
18 7% 22%  
19 5% 15%  
20 7% 10%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.3% 0.5%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.4% 99.9%  
13 5% 99.6%  
14 7% 95%  
15 5% 88%  
16 67% 83% Median
17 5% 16%  
18 6% 11%  
19 4% 5%  
20 0.7% 0.9%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 4% 99.7%  
12 6% 95%  
13 11% 90%  
14 11% 79%  
15 58% 68% Median
16 7% 10%  
17 2% 3% Last Result
18 0.6% 0.8%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 1.0% 99.9%  
10 6% 98.9%  
11 10% 93%  
12 14% 83%  
13 9% 69%  
14 57% 60% Median
15 3% 4%  
16 0.5% 1.0%  
17 0.5% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 2% 99.8%  
10 7% 98%  
11 8% 91%  
12 15% 83%  
13 60% 68% Median
14 6% 9%  
15 1.1% 3%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0% 99.7%  
5 0% 99.7%  
6 0% 99.7%  
7 0% 99.7%  
8 0.1% 99.7%  
9 4% 99.6%  
10 11% 96%  
11 12% 85%  
12 10% 73%  
13 61% 63% Last Result, Median
14 1.0% 2%  
15 0.6% 0.8%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 32%  
2 0% 32%  
3 0% 32%  
4 0% 32%  
5 0% 32%  
6 0% 32%  
7 0% 32%  
8 2% 32%  
9 9% 29%  
10 15% 20%  
11 3% 5%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0% 0.6%  
4 0% 0.6%  
5 0% 0.6%  
6 0% 0.6%  
7 0% 0.6%  
8 0.2% 0.6%  
9 0.3% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 72 62 0.3% 62–69 60–72 59–73 58–74
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 55 62 0.3% 62–69 60–72 59–73 58–74
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 55 62 0% 57–63 56–64 55–66 53–68
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 38 47 0% 47–56 45–57 45–58 44–61
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 72 46 0% 46–54 45–55 43–57 41–58
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 55 46 0% 46–54 45–55 43–57 41–58
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 55 46 0% 41–47 41–48 39–49 38–51
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 38 31 0% 31–41 30–41 29–43 28–45
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 34 31 0% 31–40 30–42 28–42 27–44
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana 17 31 0% 31–40 30–42 28–42 27–44
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 31 0% 28–32 27–34 27–34 25–36
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 17 31 0% 28–32 27–33 26–34 25–36
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 0 16 0% 16–26 15–27 14–28 13–30

SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.6% 99.6%  
59 3% 99.0%  
60 1.0% 96%  
61 2% 95%  
62 53% 93% Median
63 3% 40%  
64 2% 37%  
65 4% 35%  
66 6% 31%  
67 4% 25%  
68 4% 21%  
69 8% 17%  
70 2% 9%  
71 2% 7%  
72 2% 5% Last Result
73 3% 4%  
74 0.5% 1.0%  
75 0.1% 0.5%  
76 0.2% 0.3% Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100% Last Result
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.6% 99.6%  
59 3% 99.0%  
60 1.0% 96%  
61 2% 95%  
62 53% 93% Median
63 3% 40%  
64 2% 37%  
65 4% 35%  
66 6% 31%  
67 4% 25%  
68 4% 21%  
69 8% 17%  
70 2% 9%  
71 2% 7%  
72 2% 5%  
73 3% 4%  
74 0.5% 1.0%  
75 0.1% 0.5%  
76 0.2% 0.3% Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.6% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.3%  
55 2% 99.0% Last Result
56 4% 97%  
57 5% 93%  
58 3% 88%  
59 10% 85%  
60 6% 75%  
61 3% 69%  
62 54% 67% Median
63 6% 13%  
64 2% 7%  
65 1.1% 5%  
66 2% 4%  
67 0.8% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.5%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0% 99.9%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 2% 99.7%  
45 4% 98%  
46 0.7% 94%  
47 54% 94% Median
48 0.6% 39%  
49 2% 39%  
50 2% 37%  
51 3% 34%  
52 4% 32%  
53 4% 28%  
54 7% 24%  
55 3% 17%  
56 5% 15%  
57 5% 10%  
58 3% 5%  
59 0.6% 2%  
60 0.8% 1.3%  
61 0.2% 0.6%  
62 0.3% 0.3%  
63 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.9%  
42 0.9% 99.4%  
43 2% 98.5%  
44 0.3% 96%  
45 5% 96%  
46 53% 91% Median
47 3% 38%  
48 0.8% 36%  
49 5% 35%  
50 3% 30%  
51 6% 27%  
52 2% 21%  
53 9% 19%  
54 2% 10%  
55 3% 8%  
56 1.1% 5%  
57 3% 4%  
58 0.3% 0.8%  
59 0.2% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.9%  
42 0.9% 99.4%  
43 2% 98.5%  
44 0.3% 96%  
45 5% 96%  
46 53% 91% Median
47 3% 38%  
48 0.8% 36%  
49 5% 35%  
50 3% 30%  
51 6% 27%  
52 2% 21%  
53 9% 19%  
54 2% 10%  
55 3% 8% Last Result
56 1.1% 5%  
57 3% 4%  
58 0.3% 0.8%  
59 0.2% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 1.2% 99.8%  
39 2% 98.6%  
40 0.6% 97%  
41 7% 96%  
42 4% 90%  
43 8% 85%  
44 5% 77%  
45 7% 72%  
46 54% 65% Median
47 5% 11%  
48 1.1% 6%  
49 3% 5%  
50 0.8% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.8%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.8%  
29 2% 98%  
30 1.2% 96%  
31 54% 95% Median
32 3% 41%  
33 3% 38%  
34 3% 35%  
35 2% 32%  
36 1.4% 30%  
37 3% 29%  
38 9% 26% Last Result
39 3% 17%  
40 4% 15%  
41 5% 10%  
42 2% 5%  
43 1.2% 3%  
44 1.1% 2%  
45 0.4% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.8% 99.8%  
28 2% 99.0%  
29 1.2% 97%  
30 5% 96%  
31 54% 91% Median
32 2% 37%  
33 1.3% 35%  
34 2% 34% Last Result
35 2% 32%  
36 2% 30%  
37 3% 28%  
38 5% 25%  
39 7% 20%  
40 5% 13%  
41 3% 8%  
42 3% 5%  
43 1.1% 2%  
44 0.9% 1.1%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA – Slovenská národná strana

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.8% 99.8%  
28 2% 99.0%  
29 1.2% 97%  
30 5% 96%  
31 54% 91% Median
32 2% 37%  
33 1.3% 35%  
34 2% 34%  
35 2% 32%  
36 2% 30%  
37 3% 28%  
38 5% 25%  
39 7% 20%  
40 5% 13%  
41 3% 8%  
42 3% 5%  
43 1.1% 2%  
44 0.9% 1.1%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.7% 99.9%  
26 1.4% 99.2%  
27 3% 98%  
28 8% 94%  
29 8% 86%  
30 5% 79%  
31 60% 73% Median
32 4% 14%  
33 5% 10%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.1% 2%  
36 0.4% 0.7%  
37 0.1% 0.3%  
38 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
39 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.2% 99.8%  
26 2% 98.6%  
27 5% 96%  
28 5% 91%  
29 8% 86%  
30 7% 78%  
31 61% 71% Median
32 5% 11%  
33 2% 5%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.5% 1.4%  
36 0.5% 0.9%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.7% 100%  
14 4% 99.3%  
15 1.3% 95%  
16 55% 94% Median
17 2% 39%  
18 0.6% 37%  
19 4% 36%  
20 0.6% 32%  
21 0.2% 32%  
22 2% 31%  
23 2% 29%  
24 3% 27%  
25 6% 24%  
26 11% 18%  
27 2% 7%  
28 3% 5%  
29 0.2% 2%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations