Opinion Poll by Focus for TV Markíza, 6–13 September 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 18.3% | 18.9% | 17.4–20.5% | 16.9–21.0% | 16.6–21.4% | 15.9–22.3% |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 7.0% | 16.5% | 15.1–18.1% | 14.6–18.5% | 14.3–18.9% | 13.7–19.7% |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia | 0.0% | 14.6% | 13.2–16.1% | 12.8–16.5% | 12.5–16.9% | 11.9–17.7% |
| REPUBLIKA | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.5–9.8% | 6.0–10.5% |
| Slovenská národná strana | 3.2% | 6.4% | 5.5–7.5% | 5.2–7.8% | 5.0–8.1% | 4.6–8.6% |
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí | 0.0% | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.5% |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.3–7.3% | 5.1–7.6% | 4.9–7.9% | 4.5–8.4% |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.6–7.2% |
| SME RODINA | 8.2% | 4.9% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.7–6.4% | 3.4–6.9% |
| SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 7.0% | 3.7% | 3.0–4.6% | 2.9–4.8% | 2.7–5.1% | 2.4–5.5% |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.6–5.0% | 2.3–5.4% |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 8.0% | 1.8% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.2–2.7% | 1.1–2.8% | 1.0–3.2% |
| MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.7–2.8% |
| Magyar Fórum | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 38 | 33 | 33–37 | 32–38 | 30–41 | 29–43 |
| Progresívne Slovensko | 0 | 32 | 25–34 | 25–34 | 25–34 | 25–36 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia | 0 | 28 | 25–31 | 24–31 | 23–31 | 22–32 |
| REPUBLIKA | 0 | 16 | 13–17 | 12–17 | 11–17 | 11–19 |
| Slovenská národná strana | 0 | 12 | 0–14 | 0–14 | 0–15 | 0–15 |
| OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí | 0 | 12 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 9–14 | 0–15 |
| Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie | 0 | 13 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 0–14 |
| Sloboda a Solidarita | 13 | 0 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–12 |
| SME RODINA | 17 | 0 | 0–9 | 0–11 | 0–11 | 0–12 |
| SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–10 |
| Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–9 |
| Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Magyar Fórum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 31 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 32 | 2% | 96% | |
| 33 | 47% | 93% | Median |
| 34 | 3% | 46% | |
| 35 | 17% | 42% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 25% | |
| 37 | 19% | 25% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 5% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 43 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Progresívne Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 16% | 99.7% | |
| 26 | 4% | 84% | |
| 27 | 1.2% | 80% | |
| 28 | 2% | 79% | |
| 29 | 3% | 77% | |
| 30 | 13% | 73% | |
| 31 | 0.8% | 60% | |
| 32 | 31% | 59% | Median |
| 33 | 1.3% | 29% | |
| 34 | 26% | 27% | |
| 35 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 23 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 24 | 2% | 96% | |
| 25 | 14% | 95% | |
| 26 | 17% | 80% | |
| 27 | 6% | 64% | |
| 28 | 18% | 57% | Median |
| 29 | 25% | 39% | |
| 30 | 0.8% | 14% | |
| 31 | 13% | 14% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
REPUBLIKA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 11 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 12 | 2% | 96% | |
| 13 | 26% | 93% | |
| 14 | 7% | 67% | |
| 15 | 2% | 60% | |
| 16 | 19% | 59% | Median |
| 17 | 39% | 40% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenská národná strana
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 87% | |
| 2 | 0% | 87% | |
| 3 | 0% | 87% | |
| 4 | 0% | 87% | |
| 5 | 0% | 87% | |
| 6 | 0% | 87% | |
| 7 | 0% | 87% | |
| 8 | 0% | 87% | |
| 9 | 0.9% | 87% | |
| 10 | 10% | 87% | |
| 11 | 18% | 77% | |
| 12 | 17% | 59% | Median |
| 13 | 21% | 42% | |
| 14 | 17% | 21% | |
| 15 | 4% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 6 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 8 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 9 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 10 | 6% | 95% | |
| 11 | 36% | 89% | |
| 12 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 13 | 4% | 45% | |
| 14 | 40% | 41% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 9 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 10 | 6% | 98% | |
| 11 | 5% | 92% | |
| 12 | 35% | 87% | |
| 13 | 23% | 53% | Median |
| 14 | 30% | 30% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Sloboda a Solidarita
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 61% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 39% | |
| 2 | 0% | 39% | |
| 3 | 0% | 39% | |
| 4 | 0% | 39% | |
| 5 | 0% | 39% | |
| 6 | 0% | 39% | |
| 7 | 0% | 39% | |
| 8 | 0% | 39% | |
| 9 | 4% | 39% | |
| 10 | 17% | 35% | |
| 11 | 2% | 18% | |
| 12 | 16% | 17% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
SME RODINA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 86% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 14% | |
| 2 | 0% | 14% | |
| 3 | 0% | 14% | |
| 4 | 0% | 14% | |
| 5 | 0% | 14% | |
| 6 | 0% | 14% | |
| 7 | 0% | 14% | |
| 8 | 2% | 14% | |
| 9 | 4% | 13% | |
| 10 | 2% | 9% | |
| 11 | 6% | 7% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 91% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 9% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 10 | 9% | 9% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 9 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Magyar Fórum
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Fórum page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 72 | 75 | 32% | 64–79 | 64–84 | 64–85 | 64–89 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA | 55 | 75 | 32% | 64–79 | 64–84 | 64–85 | 64–89 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 38 | 73 | 22% | 64–79 | 64–79 | 64–79 | 63–84 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 55 | 62 | 0.5% | 58–67 | 58–70 | 58–73 | 58–75 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 72 | 47 | 0% | 33–53 | 33–57 | 33–60 | 33–60 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA | 55 | 47 | 0% | 33–53 | 33–57 | 33–60 | 33–60 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 38 | 46 | 0% | 33–51 | 33–51 | 33–53 | 33–54 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko | 34 | 41 | 0% | 31–46 | 31–48 | 31–51 | 31–52 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA | 17 | 41 | 0% | 31–46 | 31–48 | 31–51 | 31–52 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 55 | 35 | 0% | 33–42 | 33–45 | 33–45 | 31–48 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana | 0 | 38 | 0% | 31–42 | 31–42 | 31–42 | 29–45 |
| SMER–sociálna demokracia | 38 | 33 | 0% | 33–37 | 32–38 | 30–41 | 29–43 |
| HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA | 17 | 29 | 0% | 25–36 | 25–37 | 25–37 | 23–40 |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 88% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 69 | 9% | 88% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 79% | |
| 71 | 0.7% | 78% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 78% | Last Result |
| 73 | 21% | 78% | Median |
| 74 | 5% | 57% | |
| 75 | 20% | 52% | |
| 76 | 2% | 32% | Majority |
| 77 | 1.3% | 29% | |
| 78 | 3% | 28% | |
| 79 | 16% | 26% | |
| 80 | 2% | 9% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 83 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 84 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 85 | 3% | 5% | |
| 86 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 88% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 69 | 9% | 88% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 79% | |
| 71 | 0.7% | 78% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 78% | |
| 73 | 21% | 78% | Median |
| 74 | 5% | 57% | |
| 75 | 20% | 52% | |
| 76 | 2% | 32% | Majority |
| 77 | 1.3% | 29% | |
| 78 | 3% | 28% | |
| 79 | 16% | 26% | |
| 80 | 2% | 9% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 83 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 84 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 85 | 3% | 5% | |
| 86 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 12% | 99.3% | |
| 65 | 2% | 87% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 85% | |
| 67 | 2% | 85% | |
| 68 | 2% | 82% | |
| 69 | 10% | 81% | |
| 70 | 0.9% | 71% | |
| 71 | 0.8% | 70% | |
| 72 | 1.2% | 69% | |
| 73 | 19% | 68% | Median |
| 74 | 7% | 49% | |
| 75 | 20% | 42% | |
| 76 | 1.0% | 22% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.7% | 21% | |
| 78 | 2% | 20% | |
| 79 | 15% | 18% | |
| 80 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 83 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 84 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 10% | 99.5% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 61 | 15% | 90% | Median |
| 62 | 26% | 75% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 49% | |
| 64 | 16% | 48% | |
| 65 | 16% | 32% | |
| 66 | 5% | 16% | |
| 67 | 2% | 11% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 70 | 4% | 9% | |
| 71 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 74 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 12% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 88% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 36 | 0% | 88% | |
| 37 | 0% | 88% | |
| 38 | 0% | 88% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 88% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 41 | 0% | 88% | |
| 42 | 0% | 88% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 88% | |
| 44 | 13% | 87% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 74% | Median |
| 46 | 21% | 74% | |
| 47 | 18% | 53% | |
| 48 | 2% | 34% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 32% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 32% | |
| 51 | 18% | 31% | |
| 52 | 2% | 14% | |
| 53 | 4% | 12% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 56 | 2% | 7% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 60 | 4% | 4% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 12% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 88% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 36 | 0% | 88% | |
| 37 | 0% | 88% | |
| 38 | 0% | 88% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 88% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 41 | 0% | 88% | |
| 42 | 0% | 88% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 88% | |
| 44 | 13% | 87% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 74% | Median |
| 46 | 21% | 74% | |
| 47 | 18% | 53% | |
| 48 | 2% | 34% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 32% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 32% | |
| 51 | 18% | 31% | |
| 52 | 2% | 14% | |
| 53 | 4% | 12% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 7% | Last Result |
| 56 | 2% | 7% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 60 | 4% | 4% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 12% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 88% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 88% | Last Result |
| 39 | 2% | 88% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 41 | 0.9% | 85% | |
| 42 | 1.2% | 84% | |
| 43 | 3% | 83% | |
| 44 | 14% | 81% | |
| 45 | 2% | 66% | Median |
| 46 | 21% | 65% | |
| 47 | 19% | 43% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 25% | |
| 49 | 3% | 24% | |
| 50 | 1.1% | 21% | |
| 51 | 16% | 20% | |
| 52 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 53 | 2% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 12% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 0% | 88% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 34 | 0.7% | 88% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 36 | 9% | 87% | |
| 37 | 5% | 78% | |
| 38 | 15% | 72% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 57% | |
| 40 | 5% | 57% | Median |
| 41 | 3% | 52% | |
| 42 | 36% | 49% | |
| 43 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 12% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 11% | |
| 46 | 0.8% | 11% | |
| 47 | 3% | 10% | |
| 48 | 2% | 7% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 51 | 4% | 4% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 12% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 0% | 88% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 34 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 36 | 9% | 87% | |
| 37 | 5% | 78% | |
| 38 | 15% | 72% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 57% | |
| 40 | 5% | 57% | Median |
| 41 | 3% | 52% | |
| 42 | 36% | 49% | |
| 43 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 12% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 11% | |
| 46 | 0.8% | 11% | |
| 47 | 3% | 10% | |
| 48 | 2% | 7% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 51 | 4% | 4% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 33 | 45% | 99.3% | Median |
| 34 | 0.3% | 54% | |
| 35 | 15% | 54% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 38% | |
| 37 | 19% | 38% | |
| 38 | 3% | 19% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 16% | |
| 40 | 3% | 16% | |
| 41 | 2% | 13% | |
| 42 | 2% | 11% | |
| 43 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 44 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 45 | 4% | 6% | |
| 46 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 31 | 12% | 99.4% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 87% | |
| 33 | 2% | 87% | |
| 34 | 1.0% | 85% | |
| 35 | 2% | 84% | |
| 36 | 10% | 82% | |
| 37 | 6% | 72% | |
| 38 | 18% | 66% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 48% | |
| 40 | 8% | 47% | Median |
| 41 | 2% | 39% | |
| 42 | 36% | 37% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
SMER–sociálna demokracia

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 31 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 32 | 2% | 96% | |
| 33 | 47% | 93% | Median |
| 34 | 3% | 46% | |
| 35 | 17% | 42% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 25% | |
| 37 | 19% | 25% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 5% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 43 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 25 | 11% | 98.9% | |
| 26 | 15% | 88% | |
| 27 | 5% | 73% | |
| 28 | 16% | 69% | Median |
| 29 | 24% | 53% | |
| 30 | 2% | 28% | |
| 31 | 13% | 26% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 13% | |
| 33 | 1.3% | 12% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 11% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 10% | |
| 36 | 4% | 10% | |
| 37 | 3% | 6% | |
| 38 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Focus
- Commissioner(s): TV Markíza
- Fieldwork period: 6–13 September 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1001
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.30%