Opinion Poll by NMS, 21–24 September 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko 7.0% 19.7% 18.4–21.1% 18.0–21.5% 17.7–21.9% 17.1–22.6%
SMER–sociálna demokracia 18.3% 19.4% 18.1–20.8% 17.7–21.2% 17.4–21.6% 16.8–22.3%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia 0.0% 10.5% 9.5–11.6% 9.2–11.9% 9.0–12.2% 8.5–12.8%
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí 0.0% 9.5% 8.6–10.6% 8.3–10.9% 8.1–11.1% 7.6–11.7%
REPUBLIKA 0.0% 8.5% 7.6–9.5% 7.4–9.8% 7.1–10.1% 6.8–10.6%
Sloboda a Solidarita 6.2% 5.7% 5.0–6.5% 4.7–6.8% 4.6–7.0% 4.3–7.5%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 4.6% 5.4% 4.7–6.2% 4.5–6.5% 4.3–6.7% 4.0–7.1%
Slovenská národná strana 3.2% 5.4% 4.7–6.2% 4.5–6.5% 4.3–6.7% 4.0–7.1%
SME RODINA 8.2% 5.2% 4.5–6.0% 4.3–6.2% 4.1–6.5% 3.8–6.9%
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 3.9% 3.1% 2.6–3.8% 2.5–4.0% 2.3–4.2% 2.1–4.5%
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 7.0% 2.3% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.4–3.5%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 8.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.3% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.6% 1.0–2.9%
MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.1%
Magyar Fórum 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko 0 35 35–39 35–39 35–39 33–39
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 34 34–35 34–35 34–35 33–38
HLAS–sociálna demokracia 0 19 18–19 18–19 18–19 15–21
OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí 0 17 14–17 14–17 14–17 14–18
REPUBLIKA 0 15 15 15 15 14–18
Sloboda a Solidarita 13 11 10–11 10–11 10–11 8–11
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie 0 9 9–10 9–10 9–10 0–11
Slovenská národná strana 0 10 0–10 0–10 0–10 0–11
SME RODINA 17 0 0–9 0–9 0–9 0–11
Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja 0 0 0 0 0 0
SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 17 0 0 0 0 0
MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD 0 0 0 0 0 0
Magyar Fórum 0 0 0 0 0 0

Progresívne Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.8%  
34 0.2% 99.4%  
35 86% 99.2% Median
36 0.4% 14%  
37 0.9% 13%  
38 0.1% 12%  
39 12% 12%  
40 0% 0.4%  
41 0.3% 0.3%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.1% 99.8%  
33 0.4% 99.7%  
34 86% 99.3% Median
35 12% 14%  
36 0.7% 2%  
37 0.1% 0.8%  
38 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
39 0.1% 0.3%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.9% 100%  
16 0.1% 99.1%  
17 0.2% 99.0%  
18 12% 98.8%  
19 86% 87% Median
20 0.5% 1.0%  
21 0.1% 0.5%  
22 0.1% 0.4%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the OBYČAJNÍ ĽUDIA a nezávislé osobnosti–Kresťanská únia–Za ľudí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 12% 100%  
15 0.2% 88%  
16 0.3% 88%  
17 86% 87% Median
18 0.7% 1.1%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.1% 99.9%  
14 0.8% 99.8%  
15 98% 99.0% Median
16 0.4% 1.4%  
17 0.1% 1.0%  
18 0.6% 0.9%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 0% 99.6%  
5 0% 99.6%  
6 0% 99.6%  
7 0% 99.6%  
8 0.4% 99.6%  
9 0.6% 99.2%  
10 13% 98.7%  
11 86% 86% Median
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98.6%  
2 0% 98.6%  
3 0% 98.6%  
4 0% 98.6%  
5 0% 98.6%  
6 0% 98.6%  
7 0% 98.6%  
8 0% 98.6%  
9 86% 98.6% Median
10 12% 13%  
11 0.6% 0.8%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100% Last Result
1 0% 87%  
2 0% 87%  
3 0% 87%  
4 0% 87%  
5 0% 87%  
6 0% 87%  
7 0% 87%  
8 0% 87%  
9 0.4% 87%  
10 86% 87% Median
11 0.7% 1.2%  
12 0.1% 0.5%  
13 0.4% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

SME RODINA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 86% 100% Median
1 0% 14%  
2 0% 14%  
3 0% 14%  
4 0% 14%  
5 0% 14%  
6 0% 14%  
7 0% 14%  
8 0% 14%  
9 13% 14%  
10 0.2% 0.8%  
11 0.5% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Strana maďarskej koalície–Magyar Koalíció Pártja page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SPOLU–Občianska Demokracia page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the MODRÍ–Európske Slovensko–MOST–HÍD page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Magyar Fórum

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Fórum page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 72 63 0.1% 62–63 62–63 62–63 62–71
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA 55 63 0.1% 62–63 62–63 62–63 62–71
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 38 63 0% 53–63 53–63 53–63 53–69
SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 55 53 0% 53–62 53–62 53–62 53–65
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 72 44 0% 44 44 44 44–56
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA 55 44 0% 44 44 44 44–56
SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 38 44 0% 35–44 35–44 35–44 35–47
SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 55 34 0% 34–44 34–44 34–44 34–45
SMER–sociálna demokracia 38 34 0% 34–35 34–35 34–35 33–38
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko 34 29 0% 27–29 27–29 27–29 27–35
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA 17 29 0% 27–29 27–29 27–29 27–35
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana 0 29 0% 18–29 18–29 18–29 18–31
HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA 17 19 0% 19–27 19–27 19–27 19–31

SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 12% 99.7%  
63 86% 88% Median
64 0.1% 2%  
65 0.3% 2%  
66 0.7% 2%  
67 0% 1.3%  
68 0% 1.3%  
69 0.5% 1.3%  
70 0.1% 0.8%  
71 0.5% 0.7%  
72 0% 0.2% Last Result
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100% Last Result
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 12% 99.7%  
63 86% 88% Median
64 0.1% 2%  
65 0.3% 2%  
66 0.7% 2%  
67 0% 1.3%  
68 0% 1.3%  
69 0.5% 1.3%  
70 0.1% 0.8%  
71 0.5% 0.7%  
72 0% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 12% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 88%  
55 0.3% 88%  
56 0% 88%  
57 0.4% 88%  
58 0.1% 87%  
59 0.1% 87%  
60 0.1% 87%  
61 0.1% 87%  
62 0.5% 87%  
63 86% 86% Median
64 0% 0.8%  
65 0.1% 0.8%  
66 0% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.6%  
68 0% 0.5%  
69 0.5% 0.5%  
70 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 85% 99.9% Median
54 0.1% 14%  
55 0.1% 14% Last Result
56 0.4% 14%  
57 0.4% 14%  
58 0.1% 14%  
59 0.2% 13%  
60 0.6% 13%  
61 0.1% 13%  
62 12% 13%  
63 0.2% 0.8%  
64 0.1% 0.6%  
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0.3% 0.4%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.7%  
42 0% 99.6%  
43 0% 99.6%  
44 97% 99.5% Median
45 0.2% 2%  
46 0.4% 2%  
47 0.1% 2%  
48 0.1% 2%  
49 0.1% 2%  
50 0% 2%  
51 0.8% 2%  
52 0.1% 0.8%  
53 0% 0.7%  
54 0% 0.7%  
55 0.1% 0.7%  
56 0.5% 0.6%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.7%  
42 0% 99.6%  
43 0% 99.6%  
44 97% 99.5% Median
45 0.2% 2%  
46 0.4% 2%  
47 0.1% 2%  
48 0.1% 2%  
49 0.1% 2%  
50 0% 2%  
51 0.8% 2%  
52 0.1% 0.8%  
53 0% 0.7%  
54 0% 0.7%  
55 0.1% 0.7% Last Result
56 0.5% 0.6%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 12% 99.8%  
36 0.1% 88%  
37 0.1% 88%  
38 0% 88% Last Result
39 0% 88%  
40 0.2% 88%  
41 0.1% 87%  
42 0.4% 87%  
43 0% 87%  
44 85% 87% Median
45 0.1% 1.3%  
46 0.2% 1.3%  
47 0.5% 1.0%  
48 0% 0.5%  
49 0% 0.4%  
50 0% 0.4%  
51 0.4% 0.4%  
52 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 85% 99.9% Median
35 0% 15%  
36 0.2% 14%  
37 0% 14%  
38 0.4% 14%  
39 0.1% 14%  
40 0.2% 14%  
41 0.1% 14%  
42 0.4% 13%  
43 0% 13%  
44 12% 13%  
45 0.7% 1.1%  
46 0.3% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

SMER–sociálna demokracia

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.1% 99.8%  
33 0.4% 99.7%  
34 86% 99.3% Median
35 12% 14%  
36 0.7% 2%  
37 0.1% 0.8%  
38 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
39 0.1% 0.3%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA – Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.1% 99.8%  
24 0% 99.7%  
25 0% 99.6%  
26 0% 99.6%  
27 12% 99.6%  
28 0.1% 88%  
29 85% 88% Median
30 0% 2%  
31 0.9% 2%  
32 0% 1.4%  
33 0.5% 1.3%  
34 0% 0.9% Last Result
35 0.5% 0.8%  
36 0% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana – SME RODINA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.1% 99.8%  
24 0% 99.7%  
25 0% 99.6%  
26 0% 99.6%  
27 12% 99.6%  
28 0.1% 88%  
29 85% 88% Median
30 0% 2%  
31 0.9% 2%  
32 0% 1.4%  
33 0.5% 1.3%  
34 0% 0.9%  
35 0.5% 0.8%  
36 0% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – Slovenská národná strana

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 12% 99.9%  
19 0.1% 88%  
20 0.4% 88%  
21 0% 88%  
22 0.1% 88%  
23 0.1% 87%  
24 0.4% 87%  
25 0% 87%  
26 0.6% 87%  
27 0.1% 86%  
28 0.1% 86%  
29 85% 86% Median
30 0% 0.7%  
31 0.5% 0.7%  
32 0% 0.2%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia – SME RODINA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 85% 99.5% Median
20 0% 14%  
21 0.1% 14%  
22 0.1% 14%  
23 0.3% 14%  
24 0.9% 14%  
25 0% 13%  
26 0.1% 13%  
27 12% 13%  
28 0.1% 0.7%  
29 0.1% 0.6%  
30 0% 0.5%  
31 0.4% 0.5%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations