Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 16–19 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) | 0.0% | 34.9% | 32.6–37.2% | 32.0–37.8% | 31.5–38.4% | 30.4–39.6% |
| Gibanje Svoboda (RE) | 0.0% | 21.4% | 19.5–23.4% | 19.0–24.0% | 18.5–24.5% | 17.7–25.5% |
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0.0% | 7.8% | 6.6–9.2% | 6.3–9.6% | 6.0–10.0% | 5.5–10.7% |
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 6.2% | 5.2–7.6% | 4.9–7.9% | 4.7–8.3% | 4.3–8.9% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.2% | 5.2–7.6% | 4.9–7.9% | 4.7–8.3% | 4.3–8.9% |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.6–5.6% | 3.4–5.9% | 3.2–6.2% | 2.8–6.8% |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.1–5.0% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.7–5.6% | 2.4–6.1% |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.7–4.5% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.4–5.1% | 2.1–5.6% |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.4–4.1% | 2.2–4.3% | 2.0–4.6% | 1.7–5.1% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.8–3.3% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.5–3.7% | 1.2–4.2% |
| Zeleni Slovenije (*) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.6–2.2% | 0.4–2.6% |
| Naša dežela (*) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.6–2.2% | 0.4–2.6% |
| Konkretno (RE) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.8% | 0.0–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Gibanje Svoboda (RE) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zeleni Slovenije (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Naša dežela (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Konkretno (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 22% | 100% | |
| 5 | 78% | 78% | Median, Majority |
| 6 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Gibanje Svoboda (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Gibanje Svoboda (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 12% | 100% | |
| 3 | 88% | 88% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 92% | 92% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Levica (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 85% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 15% | 15% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 75% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 25% | 25% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Resni.ca (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Resni.ca (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Zeleni Slovenije (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zeleni Slovenije (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Naša dežela (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Naša dežela (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Konkretno (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konkretno (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) – Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Levica (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 85% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 15% | 15% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 92% | 92% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) – Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Resni.ca (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Mediana
- Commissioner(s): POP TV
- Fieldwork period: 16–19 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 720
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.26%