Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 4–7 November 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) | 0.0% | 33.1% | 30.9–35.4% | 30.3–36.1% | 29.8–36.6% | 28.7–37.7% |
| Gibanje Svoboda (RE) | 0.0% | 19.0% | 17.2–21.0% | 16.7–21.5% | 16.3–22.0% | 15.5–23.0% |
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0.0% | 9.1% | 7.9–10.7% | 7.5–11.1% | 7.2–11.5% | 6.7–12.2% |
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 7.8% | 6.6–9.2% | 6.3–9.6% | 6.0–10.0% | 5.5–10.7% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.6% | 5.6–8.0% | 5.3–8.4% | 5.0–8.7% | 4.6–9.4% |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.5–7.9% | 4.0–8.6% |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.3% | 4.3–6.5% | 4.1–6.8% | 3.9–7.1% | 3.5–7.8% |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.7–4.5% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.4–5.1% | 2.0–5.6% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.4% | 1.6–4.9% |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.3–2.6% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.1–3.1% | 0.9–3.5% |
| Konkretno (RE) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.0% | 0.0–1.3% |
| Naša prihodnost (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.0% | 0.0–1.3% |
| Naša dežela (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.0% | 0.0–1.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Gibanje Svoboda (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Konkretno (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Naša prihodnost (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Naša dežela (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 78% | 99.7% | Median |
| 5 | 22% | 22% | Majority |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Gibanje Svoboda (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Gibanje Svoboda (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 73% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 27% | 27% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.4% | 99.4% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Levica (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 78% | 78% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 50% | 50% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 78% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 22% | 22% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Resni.ca (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Resni.ca (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Konkretno (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konkretno (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Naša prihodnost (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Naša prihodnost (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Naša dežela (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Naša dežela (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) – Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Socialni demokrati (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.4% | 99.4% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Levica (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 78% | 78% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) – Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 78% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 22% | 22% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Resni.ca (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Mediana
- Commissioner(s): Delo
- Fieldwork period: 4–7 November 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 722
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.92%