Opinion Poll by Mediana for POP TV, 16–19 December 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) | 0.0% | 34.0% | 31.8–36.3% | 31.2–37.0% | 30.7–37.5% | 29.6–38.6% |
| Gibanje Svoboda (RE) | 0.0% | 23.2% | 21.3–25.3% | 20.8–25.9% | 20.3–26.4% | 19.4–27.5% |
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0.0% | 10.1% | 8.8–11.7% | 8.4–12.1% | 8.1–12.5% | 7.5–13.3% |
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 8.5% | 7.3–9.9% | 7.0–10.3% | 6.7–10.7% | 6.1–11.5% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.4% | 5.4–7.7% | 5.1–8.1% | 4.9–8.4% | 4.4–9.1% |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0.0% | 4.8% | 3.9–6.0% | 3.7–6.3% | 3.5–6.6% | 3.1–7.2% |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.5–3.3% | 1.4–3.5% | 1.1–4.0% |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.7% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.2% | 0.9–3.6% |
| Zeleni Slovenije (*) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.3–2.6% | 1.2–2.8% | 1.0–3.0% | 0.9–3.5% |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.7% | 0.9–2.9% | 0.8–3.3% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.7–2.3% | 0.5–2.7% |
| Naša dežela (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.0% | 0.0–1.3% |
| Konkretno (RE) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.8% | 0.0–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Gibanje Svoboda (RE) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zeleni Slovenije (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Naša dežela (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Konkretno (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 89% | 98.8% | Median |
| 5 | 10% | 10% | Majority |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Gibanje Svoboda (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Gibanje Svoboda (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 15% | 100% | |
| 3 | 85% | 85% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.7% | 99.8% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Levica (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 11% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Resni.ca (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Resni.ca (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Zeleni Slovenije (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zeleni Slovenije (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Naša dežela (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Naša dežela (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Konkretno (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konkretno (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) – VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Socialni demokrati (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.7% | 99.8% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Levica (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) – VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Resni.ca (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Mediana
- Commissioner(s): POP TV
- Fieldwork period: 16–19 December 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 732
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.85%