Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 3–6 February 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) | 0.0% | 36.9% | 34.1–39.8% | 33.3–40.6% | 32.6–41.4% | 31.3–42.8% |
| Gibanje Svoboda (RE) | 0.0% | 19.6% | 17.4–22.1% | 16.8–22.8% | 16.3–23.5% | 15.3–24.7% |
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 8.4–12.0% | 8.0–12.6% | 7.6–13.1% | 6.9–14.1% |
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 6.2% | 5.0–7.8% | 4.6–8.3% | 4.3–8.7% | 3.8–9.6% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 4.8–7.6% | 4.4–8.1% | 4.2–8.5% | 3.7–9.4% |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.3% | 3.3–5.7% | 3.0–6.1% | 2.8–6.5% | 2.4–7.3% |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0.0% | 4.3% | 3.3–5.7% | 3.0–6.1% | 2.8–6.5% | 2.4–7.3% |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.7–5.0% | 2.5–5.4% | 2.3–5.7% | 1.9–6.5% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.5–3.9% | 1.3–4.2% | 1.1–4.8% |
| Naša dežela (*) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.5–2.2% | 0.5–2.5% | 0.3–3.0% |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–2.0% | 0.3–2.2% | 0.2–2.7% |
| Naša prihodnost (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.3–1.6% | 0.2–1.9% | 0.1–2.3% |
| Konkretno (RE) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.2–1.3% | 0.1–1.5% | 0.1–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| Gibanje Svoboda (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Naša dežela (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Naša prihodnost (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Konkretno (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 9% | 100% | |
| 5 | 89% | 91% | Median, Majority |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Gibanje Svoboda (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Gibanje Svoboda (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 84% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 15% | 15% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.0% | 99.7% | Median |
| 2 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Levica (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 33% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 67% | 67% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 79% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 21% | 21% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.0% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Resni.ca (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Resni.ca (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.2% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Naša dežela (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Naša dežela (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Naša prihodnost (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Naša prihodnost (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Konkretno (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konkretno (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) – VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Socialni demokrati (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.0% | 99.7% | Median |
| 2 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Levica (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 33% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 67% | 67% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) – VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Resni.ca (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.2% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Mediana
- Commissioner(s): Delo
- Fieldwork period: 3–6 February 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 469
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.90%