Opinion Poll by Mediana for Delo, 2–5 March 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) | 0.0% | 27.2% | 25.2–29.4% | 24.6–30.0% | 24.1–30.6% | 23.2–31.6% |
| Gibanje Svoboda (RE) | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.1–27.2% | 22.5–27.8% | 22.0–28.3% | 21.1–29.4% |
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0.0% | 6.8% | 5.8–8.2% | 5.5–8.6% | 5.2–8.9% | 4.8–9.6% |
| Demokrati (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.7% | 5.7–8.0% | 5.3–8.4% | 5.1–8.8% | 4.6–9.4% |
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 6.3% | 5.3–7.6% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.8–8.3% | 4.3–9.0% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.1% | 4.2–6.3% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.7–6.9% | 3.3–7.5% |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.1–4.9% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.7–5.5% | 2.3–6.1% |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.8–4.6% | 2.6–4.9% | 2.4–5.2% | 2.1–5.7% |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.7–4.5% | 2.5–4.7% | 2.3–5.0% | 2.0–5.5% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.5–3.7% | 1.2–4.2% |
| Mi, socialisti! (*) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.7% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.2% | 0.9–3.6% |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.7% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.2% | 0.9–3.6% |
| Glas upokojencev (*) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.7% | 0.9–2.9% | 0.8–3.3% |
| Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.1% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.5% | 0.6–2.9% |
| FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.3% |
| Stranka ZAUPANJE (*) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% | 0.1–1.7% |
| Stranka generacij–Zeleni Slovenije (RE) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.0% | 0.0–1.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Gibanje Svoboda (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Demokrati (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mi, socialisti! (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Glas upokojencev (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stranka ZAUPANJE (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stranka generacij–Zeleni Slovenije (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 54% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 45% | 46% | |
| 5 | 0.8% | 0.8% | Majority |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Gibanje Svoboda (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Gibanje Svoboda (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 15% | 100% | |
| 4 | 85% | 85% | Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Socialni demokrati (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 83% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 17% | 17% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Demokrati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Levica (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 44% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 56% | 56% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Resni.ca (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Resni.ca (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Mi, socialisti! (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi, socialisti! (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Glas upokojencev (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Glas upokojencev (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Stranka ZAUPANJE (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka ZAUPANJE (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Stranka generacij–Zeleni Slovenije (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka generacij–Zeleni Slovenije (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) – VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) – Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Levica (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 44% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 56% | 56% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 83% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 17% | 17% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) – VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) – Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Resni.ca (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Mediana
- Commissioner(s): Delo
- Fieldwork period: 2–5 March 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 731
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 6.14%