Opinion Poll by Mediana for RTV SLO, 16–18 March 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gibanje Svoboda (RE) | 0.0% | 27.8% | 26.4–29.3% | 26.0–29.7% | 25.6–30.0% | 25.0–30.8% |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) | 0.0% | 27.7% | 26.3–29.2% | 25.9–29.6% | 25.6–30.0% | 24.9–30.7% |
| Demokrati (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.3% | 6.5–8.2% | 6.3–8.5% | 6.1–8.7% | 5.8–9.2% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.6% | 5.0–6.4% | 4.8–6.7% | 4.6–6.9% | 4.3–7.3% |
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0.0% | 5.5% | 4.8–6.3% | 4.6–6.5% | 4.5–6.7% | 4.2–7.1% |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0.0% | 5.1% | 4.4–5.9% | 4.2–6.1% | 4.1–6.3% | 3.8–6.7% |
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.9% | 4.3–5.7% | 4.1–5.9% | 4.0–6.1% | 3.7–6.5% |
| Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.9–4.0% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.6–4.4% | 2.4–4.7% |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.7% | 1.9–4.1% |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.4% | 2.0–3.5% | 1.8–3.8% |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.6% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–2.9% | 1.3–3.2% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.2–3.1% |
| FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.5% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% |
| Mi, socialisti! (*) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.2% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% |
| Stranka generacij–Zeleni Slovenije (RE) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% |
| Glas upokojencev (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% |
| Stranka ZAUPANJE (*) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0–0.2% | 0.0–0.2% | 0.0–0.2% | 0.0–0.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gibanje Svoboda (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Demokrati (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mi, socialisti! (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stranka generacij–Zeleni Slovenije (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Glas upokojencev (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stranka ZAUPANJE (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Gibanje Svoboda (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Gibanje Svoboda (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 95% | 96% | Median |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 5% | 100% | |
| 4 | 95% | 95% | Median |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Demokrati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.0% | 99.0% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Resni.ca (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Resni.ca (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Levica (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Mi, socialisti! (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi, socialisti! (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Stranka generacij–Zeleni Slovenije (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka generacij–Zeleni Slovenije (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Glas upokojencev (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Glas upokojencev (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Stranka ZAUPANJE (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka ZAUPANJE (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) – Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) – VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Socialni demokrati (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Levica (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) – Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) – VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Resni.ca (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Mediana
- Commissioner(s): RTV SLO
- Fieldwork period: 16–18 March 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1598
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.34%