Opinion Poll by Ninamedia for Dnevnik, 18–20 March 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gibanje Svoboda (RE) | 0.0% | 30.1% | 28.2–32.2% | 27.6–32.8% | 27.1–33.3% | 26.2–34.3% |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) | 0.0% | 26.2% | 24.3–28.2% | 23.8–28.7% | 23.3–29.2% | 22.5–30.2% |
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0.0% | 7.7% | 6.6–9.0% | 6.3–9.3% | 6.1–9.7% | 5.6–10.3% |
| Demokrati (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.6% | 4.7–6.7% | 4.4–7.0% | 4.2–7.3% | 3.8–7.9% |
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 5.3% | 4.5–6.5% | 4.2–6.8% | 4.0–7.1% | 3.7–7.6% |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.9% | 4.1–6.0% | 3.8–6.3% | 3.6–6.5% | 3.3–7.1% |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.9–4.6% | 2.7–4.8% | 2.5–5.1% | 2.3–5.6% |
| Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.2–4.2% | 2.1–4.4% | 1.8–4.9% |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.7% | 2.0–3.9% | 1.9–4.1% | 1.6–4.6% |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–3.0% | 1.5–3.2% | 1.4–3.4% | 1.2–3.9% |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.4–3.1% | 1.3–3.3% | 1.1–3.7% |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.2–2.8% | 1.1–3.0% | 1.0–3.4% |
| Mi, socialisti! (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.3% |
| FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Glas upokojencev (*) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.3–1.5% | 0.2–1.8% |
| Stranka generacij–Zeleni Slovenije (RE) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% | 0.2–1.6% |
| Stranka ZAUPANJE (*) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.2–1.2% | 0.1–1.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gibanje Svoboda (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Demokrati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mi, socialisti! (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Glas upokojencev (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stranka generacij–Zeleni Slovenije (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stranka ZAUPANJE (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Gibanje Svoboda (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Gibanje Svoboda (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 62% | 99.6% | Median |
| 5 | 38% | 38% | Majority |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska demokratska stranka (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 69% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 31% | 31% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Socialni demokrati (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialni demokrati (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 90% | 90% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Demokrati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 75% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 25% | 25% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Levica (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Levica (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 90% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 10% | 10% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nova Slovenija–Krščanski demokrati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Resni.ca (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Resni.ca (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenska ljudska stranka (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Mi, socialisti! (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi, socialisti! (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the FOKUS – za Slovenijo s ciljem (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Glas upokojencev (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Glas upokojencev (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Stranka generacij–Zeleni Slovenije (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka generacij–Zeleni Slovenije (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Stranka ZAUPANJE (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stranka ZAUPANJE (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levica (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Socialni demokrati (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) – VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) – Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Resni.ca (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Levica (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 90% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 10% | 10% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Socialni demokrati (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 90% | 90% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Prerod – Stranka Vladimirja Prebiliča (Greens/EFA) – VESNA–Zelena stranka (Greens/EFA) – Piratska stranka Slovenije (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Resni.ca (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Slovenska nacionalna stranka (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ninamedia
- Commissioner(s): Dnevnik
- Fieldwork period: 18–20 March 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 860
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 4.48%